[Steem Monsters] Expected Value of an Alpha Pack (2)

kiwibot (59)in #steemmonsters • 6 years ago (edited)

Hey guys! Welcome back to another update on the expected value of opening an alpha pack!

Introduction - why?

Why alpha pack prices you may ask? Well, this to me is the best indicator of a diversified investment in alpha cards index, or Alpha Packs Index (API). The API will be defined as the expected value of an alpha pack. If you'd like to know how that is calculated, feel free to check out this post which explains it

If you've purchased a lot of alpha cards, you'll likely have one or more of each card, or at least a huge variety of them. This index is an average of all cards which will help you decide whether the market is on an uptrend, downtrend, dip, etc.

NOTE: the volume and liquidity of cards is quite low, so for now the API might not be a perfectly accurate index but will still provide a very good estimator, especially when we have more data points.

Some Graphs

Prices used for today's calculations

ASSUMPTIONS

These prices are the LOWEST PRICE/BCX at the time of writing thus provides a very conservative estimate of your cards' worth, since alpha packs give singles which are worth much more than combined cards.
Some Gold Foil Legendaries prices may be lower then the market listed prices if not many cards have been listed. For example, IF the cheapest Lightning Dragon listed is $2000, which is not realistic thus biases the data, I might set the price to $700 which is much more realistic.
Below shows the data used of each category with ascending prices.