RE: Season 6 Updates and Balance Changes!
Hi! I understand the chances of pulling one is very low, but it does happen. What expected values means is as the amount of cards you earn approaches infinity, the average value of all the cards approaches the expected value. This is very different form the median which is what you're describing above.
The median is much lower than the expected value because card prices are very positively skewed.
For example, I have had 0 legendaries this whole season and I'm earning around 20 cards per day, but today I pulled two unicorns from 20 cards. This changes my average earnings per day by a LOT but barely changes my median earnings per day at all.
When it comes to ROI and investment, we should be looking at the mean return if we're in it for the long term!
Because you took a snapshot in time your figures are already out by quite a margin. When new cards are released on the market the price is inflated. You should do your calculations based on expected value not point in time market prices.
For instance, a unicorn is worth around $4 now whereas was probably around $7-8 when you did your calculations. (And expected to drop to around $3. And Lord A is under $2.
Just changes in these two cards alone affect your pricing chart.
I could go on but I think you get the point.
Maybe you should do your calculations again with real expected market values. And if you do the calculation again in a few days time it'll be lower still.
Point in time math doesn't work for an active market place.
I think need to only pick cards that are at least a week old. The early inflation is mostly offset by then.
very true
Yes, it takes at least a week to normalize.
Good thought process, but give it a season end and then you will get the real prices... if you get a whole season then you get the season dump at the end, then you will get the most accurate pricing.
Thanks for the explanation