[Study] 1000+ Steem Monster Packs Statistics [Spreadsheet with Proof of Work] Part 1

Hello everyone, today I want to share the results of my 1000+ Steem monsters Pack opening study.
What I decided to do was to analyze Pack Openings from Dlive Livestreams between June 1st and June 4th and to determine what kinds of chances you actually have to get something good when opening @steemmonsters packs.
In total, I collected data from 1000 packs and put them in a spreadsheet to find out the odds for everyone who is interested to play, trade, collect or sell packs and cards.
It took me a while to get this data together, hope you like this idea behind this study.

1. Important Criteria

I only recorded data from Livestreams with at least 10+ packs being opened, to remove the distortion effect from single packs.
This was important to be sure that they weren't only uploaded because they got a rare card.
The main source was Dlive with over 98% proportion.
There was one exception the last 9 packs I had to open offline because I couldn't find more openings with the criteria mentioned above- and the goal was to get data from 1000 packs (and to start my collection) .
You can find all sources in my spreadsheet at the end of this post.

2. Distribution of 5000 cards

[Attention: you will find odds per Pack in the next table under No.3, this statistic shows ONLY the Distribution if you would own 5000 cards]

RARITY	Quantity	Percentage
Total cards	5000	100%
Common(grey)	3418	68.36%
Rare (blue)	1232	24.64 %
Epic (purple)	281	5.62 %
Legendary(gold)	69	1.38%

3. The most important Odds + probability in % per Pack

Type of Pack	X times from 1000 sample size	Odds in % for each pack	average amount of packs you you need to open
1 Rare+4 commons (worst pack)	443	44.3 %	2.25
at least 1 Epic	261	26.1 %	3.85
at least 1 Legendary (any combination)	69	6.9 %	14.50
at least 2 Epics	17	1.7 %	58.80
at least 2 Legendaries	0	< 0.1 %	a lot
1 Legendary + at least 1 Rare	31	3.1 %	32.25
1 Legendary + at least 1 Epic	12	1.2 %	83.30
1 Lgendary + 2 Rare	9	0.9 %	111.00
1 legendary + 4 commons	21	2.1 %	47.60

4. First conclusion

In each pack, you will find always 5 cards.
One of them is always at least better than „common“.
Worst Pack you can get is a set of 4 common and one rare card.
On average you need to open 14.5 packs to get 1 Legendary Card.
Every 4th pack should contain an epic card.
And most likely every 2nd pack (44.3%) will be the worst possible pack [4 commons+1 rare]

The interesting thing is that it seems to be more likely to get 1 Legendary with a 1 rare card than „just“ 1 Legendary card (with 4 commons).
Another statistic says that once you have an Epic card on your screen the chance to get a legend in this pack is around 1.2%.

5. More Interesting odds [sorted by different types of pack combinations].

Type of Pack	X times from 1000 sample	Odds in %
1 Rare (worst pack)	443	44.3 %
at least 1 Legendary (any combination)	69	6.9 %
1 Rare + 1 Epic	67	6.7 %
1 Rare + 2 Epic	6	0,6 %
1 Rare + 3 Epic	1	0.1 %
2 Rares	177	17.7 %
2 Rares + 1 Epic	39	3.9 %
2 Rares + 2 Epics	2	0.2 %
3 Rares	55	5.5 %
3 Rare + 1 Epic	11	1.1 %
4 Rares	6	0.6 %
5 Rares	1	0.1 %
at least 1 Epic	261	26.1 %
at least 2 Epics	17	1.7 %
3 Epics	3	0.3 %
3 Epics + 1 Rare	1	0.1 %
4 Epics	0	< 0.1 %
5 Epics	0	< 0.1 %

Notice : Obviously these numbers will not be exact, but given the sample size I believe they should give a pretty good first impression of the odds. [June 2018]
More data need to be collected to get more accurate results.

6. Sources | Spreadsheet with Proof of Work

You can find all sources in my spreadsheet. Klick on picture or link here
Example: user [X] pulled on Stream [Livestream Name+ Platform] at Minute a Legendary card Named [x]
For the moment you are able to read the Excel document online [read Access]; use filter options to play around with it

If this is your first time hearing about Steem Monsters, I strongly suggest visiting their official steemit account @steemmonsters for more details. You can also check out their website at:
https://steemmonsters.com

If you have spare cards feel free to send them to @tzap90 😃
Thx for reading! good luck with your packs!
Comment ; Upvote ; Resteem if you like this post
05/06/2018
@tzap90

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