Currency Analysis Report 10/9/19 - Expect The Ruble To Go Lower???
Due to inflation decelerating faster than expected, one month ago, the Bank of Russia made its third consecutive interest-rate cut. During that time, Economy Minister Maxim Oreshkin warned inflation could drop as low as 3% at the beginning of 2020 and which was validated when the Central Bank cut its growth forecasts for 2019-2021.
Fast forward to today and hopes of a trade war agreement resume and possible won’t be sorted out until next year due to the difficult issues that the US and China doesn’t see eye to eye on. Because Russia is still the second biggest oil exporter in the world and a weak global economy means depressed oil prices the Bank of Russia just hinted for an October rate cut at the bank's next rate-setting meeting in three weeks.
The Central Bank cut its key interest rate to 7% in early September, lowering the cost of borrowing for the third time this year, and said another rate cut was possible at one of the next three board meetings.
The cuts have taken place against a backdrop of slowing inflation and sluggish economic growth, which also prompted the Central Bank to lower its gross domestic product forecasts. Analysts took Yudayeva's message as an indication that the Central Bank is ready to lower its main interest rate in the nearest future.
"The Central Bank is giving a clear signal about its readiness to lower the rate already at the upcoming board meeting," said Kirill Tremasov, a former economy ministry official and now head of research at Loko-Invest. The next two rate-setting meetings are scheduled for Oct. 25 and Dec. 13.
So where is the Ruble headed next, lets go to the charts?
Monthly Chart (Curve Time Frame) - monthly supply is at 77.000 and monthly demand is at 50.000.
Weekly Chart (Trend Time Frame) – the trend is sideways.
Daily Chart (Entry Time Frame) – the chart suggests to play the extremes, no set-ups at this time.
This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn't financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
