Case for 10 cents a Steem versus $10 a Steem.

Steem was both close to these numbers: 10 cents and 10 dollars. Steem's all time low, 7 cents is 3 cents lower than 10 cents. Steem failed to reach $10 mark by around $1.5. It shows that Steem has potential to rise to $10 but also chance to fall back to 10 cents.

It is amazing that Steem, in its life time, Steem has seen more than 100X gain and almost 98X fall.

Therefore, both 10 cents and $10 a Steem are quite possible scenario.

Case for 10 Cents a Steem

Let us talk about 10 cents a Steem since it is closer than the other $10 landmark as of now.

Steem was recently traded as low as 15.5 cents even after the good news of relative success with introducing EIP in HF21 & HF22 and pausing of STINC's programmatic selling for the month of September. Therefore, it looks like that altcoin market is still bearish. Therefore, Steem can fall further to 10 cents.

However, there is always a floor. For example, can Steem fall to 5 cents or even 1 cents. Most probably no since there is an interesting number game behind it to create a support.

Therefore, we will discuss why Steem can fall back to 10 cents and what kind of scenario can play at 10 cent a Steem.

Since BTC is moving sideways between $9000 to $12000. At this range Steem may not fall below 15 cents. However, Bitcoin corrects to lower side to $8K or even $6K or below then Steem may break support of 15 cents and fall to 10 cents.

Though there is a small chance when BTC goes beyond $12K, most traders will jump the ship of altcoins and board on BTC again. In that Steem can fall below 15 cetns or even 10 cents. It is very unlikely scenario since Bitcoin has fell from its 70% dominance to 67% recently. Can BTC achieve 75% or even 80% dominance, most likely answer is no. The most reasonable case is that if BTC keeps uptrending, altcoins will be flat or move slightly up.

At 10 cents a Steem, we will see more redistribution will take place. We will see lots minnow, dolphins, orcas or even whales. Most die-hard Steemians will see this is an opportunity to load up more Steem from weak hands. Dolphin/minnow who dream to become orca/dolphin will break the bank to take positions. It could be a lifetime opportunity for loading up big number of Steem.

There is [the famous story about an early adopter, steem whale @trafalgar who bought around 500K Steem for $100K, and three months later when Steem hit $2 in June, he literally became millionaire in USD.

Screw it, I thought, I'm going all in on Steem, which turned out to be about 500,000 Steem for 20c each at the time. See, this is why you should take the 'don't try this at home' part of the disclaimer seriously. If it isn't yet apparent, I'm somewhat of a nutter, and just because I got lucky with a very

Interestingly, he did not cash out even during peak at $8.5 ($5M USD) or later. He still sits on 1M, at current price he is at $60K in profit.

However, if Steem just breaks $1 or even even higher he will be millionaire again.

The bottom line of this story is there will be lots of people who may like to repeat the story. Therefore, lots of big buying of Steem will take place for this kind of asymmetric gain.

However, the volume will be very low since very few weak hands will depart with their Steem and STINC has to force sell to maintain its company's expenditure. Either way a great distribution will take place at 10 cents which is good for the future since the stronger hands like @trafalgar will hold the majority of the Steem.

Case for 10 dollar a Steem

Steem needs to break all time high of $8 to reach $10. It will take another mega altcoin bullrun similar to 2017 to reach this land mark. Logically, Steem's biggest upgrade SMT and communities will be there. STINC will pursue a ninja-marketing and try it best add Steem to major exchanges such as Coinbase, Bitfinex, OKex etc. All Steem's internal market will a bigger market place like KuCoin's one with lots of SMTs. Or, a magical solution to onboard will bring in 10 millions accounts to Steem DApps.

If all the stars align then it is not impossible for Steem to reach $10. In fact, Steem will be much more stronger as crypto it was when it touched $8.5.

There will be major sells at 50 cents, $1, $2 or $5. When Steem will reach $10 there will be fewer sellers since speculation will higher or people have bought Steem $5-8, don't want to get out in mere 50-100% profit.

However, due to huge selling pressure at the new ATH, it will shorter in period. The question is that can Steem find a much higher support such as BTC at $10K or LTC at $70 or EOS at $4, for example, Steem $2.

To reach this kind of support at $2, we need 10 times active users, more successful DApps/SMTs and communities. The number of incoming users to Steem should reach a big number in weekly or monthly basis who will buy new Steem at $2 or above that created out of inflation (e.g. 7.5% in 2020). It is quite possible if Steem has couple of dozens of successful DApps with 100K-1M accounts.

But be aware that the next bull run for altcoin can overshoot too. In that Steem can not only reach $10 but also even $40. Irrational exuberance runs supreme during the peak of bull run do does insurmountable fear during the bear run.

Of course, we will see lots of story of ragged to riches stories in Steem DApps frequently. The question will be again asked: will everybody will cash out or we will see more like @trafalgar's cases.

Case for both scenarios

Can Steem reach to 10 cents and then recover to see ATH $10. Quite a possible scenario. If fact Steem went down from $4.3 to 7 cents and then recovered to $8.5, more than 100X recovery. Therefore, it will be a repeat of history not a new feat for Steem.

Disclaimer: This opinion is not a financial advice, it my personal perspective and opinion. Please seek professionals for financial decisions.

Thanks for reading.
@dtrade
Cryptominer since 2013, trader and tech blogger