Are you ready for explosive growth? It is time to prepare!
I can feel it coming. This is not meant to be trading or investment advice, but I think we need to begin to prepare for a large influx of people and perhaps money. Let's just imagine for a bit how this MIGHT end up playing out.
We've been slowly growing our user base and meanwhile infrastructure and other improvements are taking place. Hardfork 20 and the ability to grow more quickly, should be upon us soon. Some of the past year has been frustrating as a decentralized community struggled to find our way, sort out our culture and various ideas of how the platform should grow. If you think it is frustrating now, wait until we have a massive influx of people.
I think it might have been nice if we had more time to prepare and mature a bit more, but I see signs that it is coming sooner rather than later. It will be our job to set the culture, help the end users and still maintain our own growth.
Are you ready?
Let me tell you why I think it is going to happen soon. By soon I mean in the next few months, with ramping up beginning immediately.
Signs:
- The level and type of comments my blog has been getting. The improvement is night and day, we have serious minnows now. Gone are the days of broken English comments and whiny, begging new-users. This group is serious. They have accepted this isn't going to be easy and they are ready to fight for their share of Steem. I am actually receiving high quality engagement on nearly every post. The end-users are different. They are realistic, intelligent and articulate. They read, engage, ask real questions. I rarely get a bunch of spam anymore. When the new-users contact me in the comments or on Discord, it isn't "Hi Sir, you help me?" It is now thoughtful questions, and people looking to make this work. Night and day!
- The quality of the Introduce yourself posts is also improving, again this batch is different. Many are already Content Creators coming from other platforms, they understand marketing, engagement and are asking for advice (not money)
- The "Other Platforms" are having a difficult time with bad press, censorship and privacy concerns, the marketplace is overdue for new platforms.
- I am hearing and seeing Steem references everywhere including Facebook, Twitter and it seems even Crypto-Twitter is starting to take notice.
- Ned is communicating with us and also taking the show on the road
- We are getting positive media attention
- We are getting close to the next hardfork. (I don't look at Github nor have any inside information) I just feel that excitement building.
- It is already happening, but when the ball gets rolling it could get kind of wild.
- Lot's of projects are being developed and many of them are quite serious.
- We are having more price fluctuations that don't seem to be tied directly to the Crypto Global Market Cap.
What will happen next?
I don't know for sure, I have to guess also, but I imagine suddenly there will be a new batch of users pounding at the door and wondering how they can earn Steem. Many of these users will be coming from other platforms and they will have the maturity to expect this to be hard and time consuming and expensive. After all they have already built a base elsewhere. I don't know what will come first, new money or new users, but I suspect the users will come first. It doesn't matter because whichever one comes first the other will follow.
When they land they will be looking to the community to decide how to conduct themselves and what to do. Will you model hard work, persistence and optimism or envy and drama? Whichever path you choose someone will play the other role.
When the pond gets bigger so does the talent and visibility may become even harder. In my opinion it would be a good idea to set the expectations that this is hard, it is meant to be hard and there will not now or ever be any chance that all someone has to do is show up and earn.
Some current users will feel threatened by the influx of new talent and competition. They will expect to keep their current status and some will be disappointed. Others will support and celebrate successes and play a role in helping to onboard new-users. The second group will become natural leaders and mentors, the Sherpa's of the platform.
I will not go into any details, but it is pretty easy to predict who will be who.
If the money comes first, there will be a mad fight for it, lots of drama and whales and witnesses who want to ensure that "Scammers" don't get rewards, which I have come to think of as "Anyone other than those who are used to getting it". All you have to do is remember $12 SBDs to predict who will be happy to have money flow into the overall economy and who will want to control where it goes.
The bid bots will be overwhelmed and will become a tool for spending money to gain visibility and the competition will be tough and the expectations will change.
The whales and the dolphins will be unable to support the new users and people will have to build networks and communities and support and grow with each other as the numbers could be overwhelming for the current amount of stakeholders we have that are actively involved in the community. (Hint, start working on your network now!)
The influx will also bring new development teams, money and talent to our "Builders" there will be lots of competition for new platforms and enhancements. Things will be growing and changing more often. New Investors will bring teams and experience in with them. Our advantage is we know the platform and are already moving through the learning curve.
Are you feeling the FOMO yet? I am. I am also beginning to plan and decide how to handle it. I think things could get a bit messy as well as exciting. I like to imagine how it might go, so I can choose how to behave as it begins instead of reacting as things change.
Tomorrow I will talk about some strategies for handling big changes and an influx of competition.
Disclaimer: I am totally speculating and writing about my gut instincts in this post, again, I have no special inside information nor is this meant to be trading or investment advice.
Do you consider where we might be headed and what will happen next? Tell me your thoughts below.
I like the way Team Steemit / @Ned are building this platform first and then promote it to the world!
Most coins / tokens are all hype, Steem on the other hand has many real usecases, which are awesome btw!
This is an excellent point and one I hope "Crypto" is about to discover.
Yep. I think it will start with a rise in SBD. I tend to think activity is tied to hourly wage, which is impacted more by SBD than price of steem. We'll see BTC go back up to 10k or more and with the positive press we've goteen we'll see $5 or higher SBD. That will effectively double or triple the money a blogger makes here. Not only will the new people come, but the folks who came and left when SBD went low will come back.
that's what I think kicks us off again
Thank you for resteeming this post!
I think we need Steem to rise and SBD to hold stead or slowly fall. I don't think we can ever have $10 or $100 Steem and $5 -$50 SBD.
I don't think SBD should ever have been higher than Steem except for when Steem was below $1.
Yes, I agree. Back in the "old days" steem was pegged to dollar value. I don't really know what happened, but it really should go back to how it was.
Those might have been the days when Steem was below $1. I think now people on here underappreciate Steem and overappreciate the SBD. When Steem was below $1 it was easier to support the peg.
I feel the opposite haha. Well let me clarify, I agree 100% with the strong fundamentals of steem, but I do think there is also still a strong problem of hype.
I think that as long as mediocre content is well-rewarded on Steem (and oh boy is it rewarded right now), we're in a "bubble" of sorts. TBH my gut says we'll see a bear market, I think it might be a year or two before we break fast those $8 steems.
This isn't pessimism tho I still believe strongly in the long term of steem and $20+ steems down the road
Well, I disagree. :) In a friendly way.
In fact, I think the mediocre content is already getting pushed lower and that a loud group of people just keep reinforcing the view that it is a problem. Some are just so caught up in being "right" that they aren't seeing the differences (said with respect and not in an argumentative style) It is already happening.
The fundamentals are what matters, and the fact that content creators need a new home. We can't stop that from happening. :)
If you are right, it might be better as I think the community could better handle slow growth. Time will tell. :)
We can totally agree to disagree. And we probably agree mostly because I agree the quality is rising fast on this platform.
I'm with you mate! I'm trying to do my part on one of those fundamentals by creating lots of great content & engaging the audience in the comments.
to the moon
It is getting way better. :)
I think I’m somewhere in the middle. People need to feel that quality content will be rewarded in the long run and so they’ll need to see that in action. I do see this happening right now as more initiatives pop up and some of the newer minnows understand the platform better and join us in searching for ways that everyone can benefit based on quality work and contribution. There is still a disproportionate of the reward pool moving upwards to the top and this hurts Steem it’s future prospects, which is my main issue with the bidbots as I don’t think it’s in the best interest of the ecosystem that owners are becoming some of the most powerful people on our platform. Still things are improving. Communities need to come soon and get us away from the Trending page.
Ned is doing a bit better these days with communication.
User retention is another huge issue, it doesn’t look good when such a huge percentage of accounts are dead, and we probably won’t be able to revive all those accounts from people who joined, lost interest and lost passwords, but we’ve got to make sure the new people coming in stay, and a high payout on their intro post is not the best way to do it because once you grow too big for curie and ocd, it gets a lot harder if you don’t get adopted (adopt a minnow is a much better way @whatsup, as it forms a real connection with steemians).
I think it all depends on how quickly communities come around and who benefits the most from them.
I could care less about quality content it is already coming in quickly. I recently did a contest for a small amount and the talent was mind-blowing! Very few mature people care about whether or not the rewards are perfectly awarded. As any rewards are more than most people are getting where ever they are currently working. Plus Youtube has demonitized so much, those users need a new home, and for those who haven't noticed, many are coming here! Mature content creators know and expect they have to build an audience and take responsibility for building an audience. I think the attitudes you are talking about have more to do with how some of the early adopters are.
Many of the bidbot owners are NOT the richest people on the site, in fact nearly none of them are the early miners who hold most of the wealth by FAR. This is another false idea that gets spread but rarely researched. Check out all the bots and who is running them. Again, people from other platforms will not care, they are already used to paying promotional fees, and they aren't worried about others earning more as long as they can earn as well. As I said, I have noticed this new influx of users is much more mature and less concerned about having to build an audience and compete.
We will see, I am not arguing as much as sharing my views, thanks for the thoughtful comment.
Perhaps the bidbot owners are not the richest people on the platform but they are certainly a formidable force, one which could potentially reach that level. I don’t need to debate it any further though, I know your views on it.
The one thing I want to add though is that I think mature adults generally care about who has power and how it is rewarded, it isn’t all about “me”, but rather about how the whole ecosystem functions. I see lots of quality content too, and it’s rewarded better than before, I just think we need to be diligent to make sure this trend continues.
I bet if you asked serious youtube users they would also say there is a lot of infighting and issues and that many high-quality vlogs don't get the views they deserve. What I am saying is the "Not Fair" group is everywhere, most people don't pay that much attention to it.
Here is where we argee, things are improving, but we have to quit acting like this is the only site that has a lack of fairness and infighting.
The bidbots are helping with a broader distribution. The proof is in the math. There are more people earning now than before. Our ability to get more steem in more hands is growing faster than new users. Some people are mad about how it is getting there, but it doesn't change the fact we are improving! :)
As someone from YouTube I couldn’t agree more with his comment
I am most certainly ready! Today more so than any day before on steem/steemit. Looking forward to share a bog steempress update this week or early next week :)
Just a quick additional comment: I really did like this post. The energy is so strong and positive. So I'm going to resteeem. Many blessings. And thank you so much for your support.
There's still no sign of an end to the bitcoin bear market and I think it will take something big for steem to explode before that ends. Perhaps SMT's and the hard fork will do that but I'm more inclined to think that we will have another downturn before going to new highs. This is just my gut feeling, I'm usually wrong :)
We're certainly entering interesting times
I don't think your predictions are far fetched, some are spot on the money.
I think now is the time for minnows and orcas to improve their base rapidly and reach a level of relative 'independence' before new entries start coming.
Invest in steem power, secure your relationships and most of all, expect the unexpected
expect the unexpected I love that! Yes.
I have most definitely noticed the rise in quality comments on my posts. It is quite refreshing to have actual conversations about my content! I have been on steem for 2 years now, and can note that the platform goes in waves, as far as popularity and price. I can say that the price fluctuations have been drastic, but there has always been higher highs and higher lows. Now is the time to accumulate, grow, and enjoy the platform.
An excellent summary of many of the good things Steem has going for it despite some of the internal issues here on the Steemit platform.
As I look at a sea of red on coinmarketcap I see a couple of beacons of hope...Binance coin up a little-yes, but more excited to see Steem has jumped to the 30 spot after being at 31-32 for a bit. They're the only 2 in the green as of this writing.
It is nice to see some cryptos moving in their own direction and not following the almighty BTC like a bunch of lost puppies. I'd really like to see Steem hit that #25 market cap rank in the next couple of months!
I know it will not be easy, but as you express it you have to fight, and try to improve as much as possible, as you say "when the pond grows, so does talent and visibility can be even more difficult". Thanks for the suggestion, I will surely start working on my blog, thanks