Does Steemit can make you a $ Millionaire?

I’m not a native English speaker, don’t have extraordinary story to tell or really special skills to teach. 

That being said, my chances to transform my Steemit experience into loads of dollars is really thin by those means. 

                                                

I find this project totally amazing and disrupting and really believe like most of us here that it could deeply change web economy, and be a popular example on how things could also change in other industries and society. 

How could I then support and maybe profit from the probably huge interest that will arise from the Steemit experience? 

                                                           

Maybe by investing some cash in steem power… Can that make me a $ millionaire? That’s another question.   Working in the finance industry, I found it interesting to produce some quick projections. How Steem market cap would have to grow to make “not so early” adopters rich with a medium sized wallet? Let's do some basic maths.

                                     

 Hypothesis: 

Let’s say I buy 500 steems (~1765$ at actual price) and power it up in my wallet.  I know that at medium term, Steem available supply is meant to double each year and that Steem power will offer a 90% interest rate to protect its holders.  How should then Steem market cap grow on a yearly basis to make me a millionaire in let’s say 10 years? 

 

Wow, to make me a millionaire, Steem market cap would have to rise over 340 billion dollars, almost exactly Facebook market cap. It should grow at a 100% annual rate during ten years, which would let Steem coin price stable. Let’s imagine a Steemit user is worth a Facebook user in term of business/added value, Steemit user base would have to grow more than 200% annualy to reach approximately the 1.6 billion users of Facebook.

At the time I write this post, Steemit market cap per user is up to 13K$, in our growth hypothesis, Steemit market cap per user would go down to reach 230$ per user in 10 years. 

But is such a growth sustainable? Will Steemit, even in an ever-evolving form and ecosystem beat a giant like Facebook in the long run? Although we all think this experiment will turn big, that’s maybe too optimistic.

 

                                            

The “Reddit hypothesis”: 

Let’s "just" imagine that Steemit reach Reddit user base, approximately 230 million users, in 10 years. Steemit would need a 150% user’s growth which leads to an adjusted 75% market cap growth rate (based on our previous figures):

 My wallet value would “just” grow to an almost 300K $ value, which would still make me a happy man :)

 Conclusion: 

To my humbe opinion, Steemit does not seem to be a Ponzi scheme, nor a magic millionaire’s fabric. But if you believe it will grow to a more than huge social network like Facebook or even Reddit, it does not seem a dumb idea to invest some money into it :) Let's power up !