RUSSIA WILL BE DESTROYED

"There will not be an uprising against Moscow, but Moscow's fulminating ability to support and control the Russian Federation will leave a vacuum," Stratfor warns. "What will be during this vacuum will be the individual fragments of the Russian Federation"

Sanctions, the decline in oil prices, a ruble that is sinking, the increase in military spending, and the increase in internal discord will weaken the central government of Russia. Russia will not officially be divided into several countries, but Moscow's power will be weakened to the point that Russia will effectively become a series of semi-autonomous regions that might not even get along with each other.

"We expect the Moscow authority to be substantially weakened, which will lead to the formal and informal fragmentation of Russia," the report said, adding that "it is unlikely that the Russian Federation will survive in its current form"

US IS GOING TO HAVE TO USE ITS MILITARY POWER TO SECURE THE NUCLEAR WEAPONS OF RUSSIA

Russia's nuclear weapons infrastructure spans a vast geographical area. If the political disintegration that Stratfor comes to occur, means that weapons, fissile materials, and supply systems could be exposed, in what would soon become the most dangerous power vacuum in the world.

The possible looting or smuggling of weapons from Russia's nuclear arsenals will be "the biggest crisis of the next decade," according to Stratfor.

And the USA they will have to decide what to do about it, even if this means sending ground troops to Russia to secure loose weapons, materials and missiles.

"Washington is the only power capable of addressing the issue, but it will not be able to take control of the large number of Russian military sites and ensure that no missiles are fired in the process," the Forecast states. "The United States will either have to invent a military solution that is difficult to conceive now, either accept the threat of unscrupulous launches, or try to create a stable and economically viable government in the regions involved to neutralize those dangers."

GERMANY WILL HAVE PROBLEMS

Germany has an export-dependent economy that has benefited from trade liberalization in the EU and the euro zone, but that only means that the German country has much to lose during a euro crisis and any resulting wave of "Euroscepticism" .

The domestic consumption of the country can not compensate for this drop in Germany's export economy and less with the expected decrease in its population.

The result for Germany is that it will live an economic stagnation like the one that Japan has lived.

"We expect Germany to suffer serious economic setbacks in the next decade," says the Stratfor forecast.

POLAND WILL BE ONE OF THE LEADERS OF EUROPE

However, things will go much better for neighbors in eastern Germany.

"At the center of economic growth and the increase in political influence, Poland will be located," says the report.

The population of Poland will not be reduced as much as that of the other major European economies. The fact that it is the largest and most prosperous European state on the western border of Russia also places Poland in a position of regional leadership that the country could take advantage of to achieve greater political and economic prestige.

And that will help consolidate the kind of long-term strategic partnership that Poland wants.

THERE WILL BE FOUR EUROPE

It was not long ago that European unity seemed to be an unstoppable historic force, with political and economic barriers between countries dissolving and with regionalism and nationalism disappearing from the politics of the continent.

But in 10 years, this could become a distant memory. The Stratfor forecast speaks of four Europas that will gradually move away from each other: Western Europe, Eastern Europe, Scandinavia and the British Isles. They will still have to share the territory, but they will not be as closely connected as they were before.

"The European Union could survive in some sense, but European economic, political and military relations will be governed mainly by bilateral or multilateral relations limited to small-scale, narrow-minded and non-binding. Some states may maintain a residual membership in a highly modified European Union, but that will not define what Europe will be "

TURKEY AND THE US WILL BECOME CLOSE ALLIES FOR AN UNEXPECTED REASON

Several Arab countries are in free fall, and the Stratfor forecast predicts that this chaos will not end soon.

The main beneficiary of all this will be Turkey, a strong, relatively stable country whose borders extend from the Black Sea to Syria and Iraq.
Turkey will be reluctant to intervene in conflicts at its borders, but, inevitably, it will have to do so, according to the forecast. As Ankara's strength and assertiveness increase in relation to its neighbors, the country will become an indispensable partner of the United States.

But Turkey will want something in return: a line of defense against Russia and its bases located in Armenia.

"Turkey will continue to need the participation of the United States for political and military reasons," the report says. "The United States will participate in the containment of Russia. The United States does not expect Turkey to assume a fighting role against Russia, but a high degree of cooperation in the management of the Black Sea will be necessary "

CHINA WILL FACE A HUGE PROBLEM

China may face a very tough decade as its economic growth slows, leading to widespread discontent among the population towards the ruling Communist Party. But the party will not liberalize, which means that its only viable option to control the chaos and remain in power will be increasing internal oppression.

Beijing is also facing another problem, perhaps bigger: China's growth has not been geographically evenly distributed. Coastal cities are thriving, but inland China has less access to international markets and is comparatively poorer. That problem will only get worse as China continues to urbanize.

The growing distance between China's coastal areas and inland areas could portend even deeper problems, such as internal strife or splits.

US POWER WILL BE REDUCED

With the world becoming increasingly disordered and unpredictable in the next 10 years, the United States will respond by becoming more prudent in the face of international events, and will largely abandon its active leadership role in "the solution of the world's problems". "(Remember that the report is American and they are capable of considering themselves as the ones who solve world problems, when maybe they are the problem)

A growing economy, rising domestic energy production, a decline in exports, and the security of being in the most stable corner of the world will give the US the luxury of being able to isolate itself against crises that will affect the rest of the world. world.

While this more restricted role of the United States in world affairs will make the world an even less predictable place, it is a reality that other countries will have to face.

"The United States will continue to be the main economic, political and military power in the world, but it will be less committed than in the past," says the forecast. "It's going to be a messy world, with a change of guard in many regions. The only constant will be the power of the USA. A power that will be much less visible and that will be used much less in the next decade "

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