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RE: Proposing Steem Equality 0.19.0 as the Next Fork
Are there any backtest simulations on worst case scenarios? It was suggested that a good econometrician should be involved.. Just mentioning this since the numbers are important and Steemit's initial hyperinflation problem and some of the other debilitating parameter settings (like the recent pool regeneration) could've been avoided if there's someone with experience on econometrics on the team. But maybe this is best run and tested live - what are some of the plans on measuring performance or whatever important stuff that should be measured?
Backtesting doesn't really work for this where user behavior, both by design and in practice, responds to the incentives offered by the rule set. Looking at past behavior under a different proposed rule set just produces misleading results.
The only way to get meaningful results is to put it into practice and see how users (not even merely existing users but also new ones) respond to it. Which is a key reason why it is so important to make only a few changes at a time, as steemitblog states in the post (and I support 100%)
Agreed! Please spend some time simulating the blockchain through the various proposals and reporting on the results or maybe commission someone in the community to do that analysis for you. Changes to the reward system is a really big deal since that's the main thing which separates this platform form any other. As mentioned here in the comments, we should work hard to explain the "why" behind the existing system (pros and cons) and the "why" behind the changes. What are the risks and what are the benefits? Will the "lottery" style of Steemit where you don't really know what your rewards are going to be go away and is that what we want?
We had done some backtesting, but I am getting a new data set as we speak using the most up-to-date live chain state.
Fantastic! I think many of us would love to see this data when talking about proposed changes. Data-driven decisions are good decisions! :)
I'm one of those who hope this data will be made public. Thank you @vandeberg for all the awesome work you done for Steem!