the first million is always the hardest - good advice is to grab it, which a lot of the whales are doing and this helps STEEM long term
There is a lot of whale power down inventory that is hitting the markets and this creates a downward pressure on the price. Considering the rapid growth in userbase and the many internet celebrities that are now posting, it would seem that the price should be rising. However simple supply/demand imbalance creates an artificially low price.
Put yourself in the whale's shoes. You have a paper wealth of a million dollars+ and if this is your first million, good advice is to grab it while you can. Most people will never get a chance to bank that much money. So you might envy them, but you cant blame them. And what this does is push the price of STEEM down. Hard to say how much, but could be 2x or even 3x, but I think this is a good thing as if the whales didnt sell then the STEEM would stay too concentrated in small number of people and the more people who have invested in STEEM, the better in the long run.
Also, this whale powerdown inventory cannot last forever. In fact, 2 years is all that it can last and my guess is that a lot of the whales will stop their powerdown well before they convert all their steem power. What this means is that over the next 2 years, the amount of available STEEM from the whale powerdown will gradually disappear.
And once this onetime whale sale is done, there really cant be any more such inventory. So, in the short term the STEEM price may stay around here, maybe drop, maybe go up. The steem power will still hold its value in BTC though, so during this early period I am putting most all my STEEM into steem power: 5.825 STEEM vs 30,360.695 STEEM
Over the next two years there is the combined effect of the userbase growth and reduction of whale sale and reduction of the first year 300% inflation, so it is quite likely that STEEM price will actually go up over the 2 year timeframe. My bet is that powering down in 2 years will lead to a much better overall result than powering down now, but dont tell the whales that! we need that cheap STEEM to be distributed
James
I am testing the graphic just to see if it works, it has nothing to do with this post
"Considering the rapid growth in userbase..."
Actually, there has been a 33% contraction in (posts + replies + edits/day) in the last 3 weeks 27,000/day to 18,000/day. This probably the best metric. Users active last 24 hours is flat and bounces around between 5,000 to 7,000 users/day (also a good metric).
https://steemle.com/charts.php?charts=posts
https://steemd.com/distribution
This is happening while a lot of money is being given away. So by now it should be obvious Steemit is not Reddit and must focus on becoming the crypto version of Seeking Alpha. Then you expand into the broad financial markets and challenge Seeking Alpha. It can be done, but is there any roadmap?
a lot of bots traffic before that is reduced
weekend usage is lower
7 day average seems the most relevant and I look at the minnows/dolphins level as the newbies are many, but most dont become active contributors.
also qualitatively, we now get a lot of recognized authors posting regularly, which appears in the stats as +1, but has disproportionate effect
Interesting article jl777, I remember you from the NXT forums, I used to be an investor 1 year ago.
I also think that the inflation is not a concern, it will trickle down slower given that it takes 2 years to power down, and they might not all cashout, they can keep the money in Steem Dollar, which does not add to inflation, but it's more liquid than SP.
I have my theory too:
https://steemit.com/steemit/@profitgenerator/steem-inflation-doesn-t-decrease-steem-price-immediately
I think cheap Steem is good for now. But soon the need for new users who want to make up the power, balanced whales power down. And the price will go up.
Thanks for the great post. In my expectation, powering down will continue til
total_vesting_fund_steemreaches 90% (currently it is around 96%). This may happen in 6 months.멋찌세요~
Lets hope for a better steemit community in the years to come.
First of all we need to prolong the exposure of the posts to the community or else Steem will degrade into a cockroach race for numbers with no respect for content quality at all.
Here is my suggestion for the solution to this grave problem.
there is 30 day trending, but people need to pick very specific categories that are most applicable to get the longest life
Good point ... as always. :)
Did you abandon all your NXT projects and developments?
I got out of NXT about a year ago and got into DASH. I could not be happier with the decision as my assets multiplied several fold, despite the fact that I still think NXT could have a promising future.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1372879.0 I had a parting of ways with NXT, I just couldnt continue contributing to dictatorship. However my SuperNET project is still very active http://www.digitalcatallaxy.com/report2015.html
And I am finishing up the first release of iguana: https://bitco.in/forum/forums/iguana.23/
Anyway, all my predictions about what would happen to NXT has happened so far, but I will make sure to protect all the investors.
Thanks for the update.
I will study the Iguana project
Regards
Sure they will power down but that gives content producers a chance to power up. We will find equilibrium.
Thanks for giving us a solid long-term view, with common sense added.
There's another reason for the "grab it while you can" effect: STEEM's success has been sudden, and sudden success reinforces "too good to be true" skepticism. I can see a level-headed person who got >$1000 in Steem dollars saying to himself, "Well, I won the lottery; I'd better cash in my scratch ticket. "
"won the lottery" is the go-to analogy for a sudden financial windfall. Not surprising that sensible folks act accordingly.
Myself, I've put my rewards into more STEEM: i.e., I've used them to power up. But then again, I'm something of a fool ;)