STEEM is going to $10, does anyone have any questions?
Will STEEM go to $10 by December 2017? Will STEEM go to $10 by 2020?
This is a topic of many previous posts on steemit by other authors. Some of the more recent are included below. One of the most recent and better quality posts on this topic is by Jerry Banfield of course.
I'd like to put my spin on the analysis. I welcome all feedback if you have questions or comments.
First topic. Is site traffic, users, and popularity rising? Yes. By leaps and bounds. When @jerrybanfield posted about $10 STEEM just two months ago, ALEXA listed steemit.com as rank 4,550 in US and rank 12,000 globally.
ALEXA reports today that steemit is ranked 1,363 in the US and 3,000 globally.
That is phenomenal growth in just two months. This trend bodes well for the future.
A recent post by @stephenkendal provided evidence of more than 2K new users per day added throughout June. This leads to the conclusion that steemit could surpass 650,000 users by end of 2017. With HF20 allegedly focused on improving on-boarding for new users, 650K seems well within reach for EOY 2017.
Good news: evidence seems undeniable that steemit.com popularity is increasing at a phenomenal rate, and users are being added at an exceptionally high rate.
But now the unfortunate cold water in the face unhappy dose of reality. None of this information is a secret.
This is public knowledge at this point. And if you believe in the efficient market hypothesis, all of this information is already baked into the current price of STEEM at $1.23, leading to a 21st level ranking for cryptocurrencies by market cap on coinmarketcap.com
The efficient market hypothesis (EMH) is an investment theory that states it is impossible to "beat the market" because market efficiency causes existing prices to always incorporate and reflect all relevant information. (from investopedia.com)
The market predicts and already expects that steemit.com will be in the top 1000 sites on ALEXA by EOY 2017.
The market predicts and already expects that steemit.com users will surpass 650K unique users by EOY 2017.
And the price of STEEM is sitting at $1.23, even with all this information being public knowledge.
So, what are the realistic chances of STEEM going to $10?
In my opinion the chances are still good. But it won't happen based on the future unrolling exactly as already predicted.
For STEEM to go to $10, we need new information and new data, that is currently not known or predicted.
What could this be? Some ideas below on what new information or data could potentially drive STEEM to $10.
Crypto-currency total market cap expands from $100M to $800M
The total market cap exploded from approximately $30M to almost $120M in just two months in 2017. 4X gain in just two months. Not a stretch to imagine or postulate an additional 8X gain in the next 40 months. Crypto total market cap could feasibly get to $800M by EOY 2020. STEEM follows along for the ride, but does not change or improve it's relationship to BTC pricing. STEEM price is pulled up by 8X as the total market goes up by 8X. Presto, STEEM is $10 by 2020
A solid advertising model evolves on steemit, to further monetize the platform
We already have early adopters on the platform who are exploring how to use steemit to effectively deliver advertisements and presumably generate business revenue. Take a look at @bookingteam.com. An early adopter trying to develop an advertising model for their business. They have enough whale support to regularly get upvoted and get their advertising posts onto the trending and hot pages. If this particular model were to mature, the takeaway is advertisers would choose to buy a significant stake in STEEM and power up, so they can use their SP to push their posts onto the trending and hot pages and secure views. Advertising. I'm not sure that model will take off. Perhaps it will? Perhaps there are models that could work on steemit? But ultimately social media sites have historically had to develop an advertising model to realize their full financial potential. 8X increase in site financial potential could be explained with the emergence or introduction of an effective advertising model on steemit. Presto, STEEM is $10 by 2020.
New Communities implementation and support on Steemit rolls out with unbelievably excellent set of capabilities
Steemit is still awkward to use in terms of easily finding information, creating your own system for storing/accessing information, creating your own community of interest of topics (like reddit) or communities of classes of people (like FB). Steemit is not as user friendly as it needs to be if the goal is hundreds of millions users, which would mean primarily low tech users to get to that volume.
The future trends for steemit growth are known and understood based on current platforms capabilities. But if the Communities implementation is exceptional, the current predictions for growth might be grossly underestimating platform growth. Communities could be so well done that the rate of adoption by new users and platform traffic and popularity increases by 8X. Presto, STEEM is $10 by 2020.
Some combination of previous three factors or three similar factors
For each case above, we looked at an 8X increase in STEEM price due to one single cause. But it is also conceivable that all three of the factors above occur, but with a reduced scope of impact. Perhaps each of the previous three factors can only drive a 2X increase in STEEM price by themselves. But by simple math, 2x2x2 = 8X. Presto, STEEM is $10 by 2020
But DaveB, $10 by 2020 is such a ridiculously low estimate that you are being way TOO PESSIMISTIC !!
Steemit appears to prefer and reward optimism. And doesn't reward pessimism. Am I being pessimistic reporting that STEEM price could rise to $10 by 2020?
Make sure you understand what that means before you jump to an assumption of pessimism. STEEM going to $10 by 2020 represents an 8X increase versus today's price. This is approximately 2X increase per year, for the next three consecutive years.
STEEM at $10 by 2020 is 100% increase per year, for the next three consecutive years
There is no other investment that is available to normal investor's, that would provide returns remotely close to this level of return. "Normal investor" as distinguished from accredited investor. An accredited investor is a person or entity that can deal with securities not registered with financial authorities by satisfying one of the requirements regarding income, net worth, asset size, governance status or professional experience (from investopedia).
If you buy $1,250 of STEEM today, you could have more than $10K by 2020, if STEEM grows to $10 by then
If you buy $125,000 of STEEM today, you could have more than $1M by 2020, if STEEM grows to $10 by then
If you are a whale today with $1.25M or more of STEEM, you could have more than $10M by 2020, if STEEM grows to $10 by then
I know this forecast and assessment will be disappointing and viewed as dismal to some. If you were predicting STEEM price going to $10 in the next two months or the next eight months, then my prediction of STEEM going to $10 in 40 months is going to seem lame.
My push-back is predictions of an 8X price increase in 2 or 8 months sounds like flim-flam. It sounds like a sham. It sounds like you are running a pump and dump. It sounds like you are selling lottery tickets. It sounds like typical marketing BS for every known Ponzi scheme. And in my opinion this cheapens the platform, by promising or predicting something that sounds too good to be true. If it walks and talks like a duck, it is probably a duck.
Step back and realize that an investment that can grow by 100% per year, for three consecutive years, could be the best investment opportunity you will ever get for the rest of your life, for any investment, and including the case that you are only 18 today and you live to 98.
8X gain in three years would be phenomenal. And is realistically feasible with STEEM.
Thanks for reading to this point. Please upvote or resteem if you found the material thought provoking.
All substantial comments will be appreciated, pro or con, and will be replied to.
STEEM On!!
DaveB
https://steemit.com/steemit/@jerrybanfield/10-reasons-for-usd10-steem-price-in-10-months
https://steemit.com/steemit/@abitofeverything/steem-to-hit-usd10-this-summer
photos from youtube.com, brainyquote.com
A very rational analysis for sure. I'm more optimistic though. I understand that Wales brought the price down to what it reached in mid March and Wales powering down are probably holding the price down now... but I think many people are mopping up what is being sold off which is why price is currently stable. The whole market has had the jitters since the BTC fork was announced. The confidence hasn't yet returned. Steem has followed bitcoin in its rise this year stepping up in value in a two steps toward one back way since March. I think once Bitcoin breaks through 3k we'll see investers back into the alt market badking Steem and Eth. and the other top currencies. It's only a matter of time to see when Steem breaks through it's previous highs. I believe it's one of the best buys out there right now for shortish, medium and long term investment. As a stratedgy we should all be curating non performing posts and helping the new guys have confidence. Spending hours writing posts which vanish in a puff of steem with 3 views and one vote doesn't encourage anyone. Voting for the top hitters who brought in massive databases of followers from outside Steem, or got a foothold in mid 2016, keeps the platform stagnant. Thinking about this I'm now going to try and visit the 'introduceyourself' tag daily... onwards!
Agreed. Go do some excellent curation, I'll follow, lets help minnows build confidence
STEEM On!!
I am expecting a definite $10 value. The question is, in how many months?
Hope we get some positive surprises that no one is expecting, that will help jump the price up to $10
Yes, most importantly getting Steem known outside the world of crypto and into the mainstream internet bloggers and vloggers!
This is a really good post! The most well-reasoned valuation for Steem and an angle we all need to know in order to set our expectations at a reasonable level!
As you say, the current valuation of Steem already has considerable future success well-baked in ;-)
I think we may well see more growth in other crypto investments, higher up the pyramid, such as EOS and OMG for example - but with Steem we get to earn extra currency along the way so even if it rises less we've got more invested ! A Win-Win World ;-)
Smiles to all and enjoy the next 40 months!
Thanks for reading and comments
STEEM On!!
DaveB
I think you are right on. An 8x gain by 2020 is realistic and phenomenal. People in the crypto world need to learn patience.
Thanks for reading and comments
STEEM On!!
DaveB
Interesting hypothesis. I was wondering earlier if investing actual money would be a good investment. I will not take this as financial advice or suggestions, but it's good food for thought. Thanks for the analysis.
PS do you think there is a likely increase coming down the pipes? I haven't met anyone IRL or online who uses it outside of the site itself, but thats just my limited experience.
I think STEEM will be over $10 within a year. It is not comparable to a typical "stock" and is not a typical "company." It's a brand new platform that we have never seen before and more people find out about it every day! This is gonna be fun!
Were you around for the dot com crash of 2000? Same stories told then. THIS TIME IT WILL BE DIFFERENT. WE ARE CHANGING THE WORLD.
But it wasn't completely true. It was premature. And a big crash ensued.
STEEM On!!
DaveB
"Take a look at bookingteam.com"
Ugh, I'd rather not look at a bunch of junk mail flyers, thanks:
https://steemit.com/curation/@lexiconical/exposing-advertiser-circle-jerks-in-trending-reward-pool-rape-and-bookingteam-com
Thanks for the post, upvoted.
I agree that an investigation of what is happening makes it look an advertising circle jerk.
To try to be somewhat fair, it is an early attempt at advertising so not surprising it lacks subtlety, and I expect it is also lacking in effectiveness.
But advertising has to start from somewhere. It should become better with more trial and error.
Thanks for reading and comments.
STEEM On!!
DaveB
For me it's only a matter of time for Steem to reach USD 10, especially if you compare Steemit with Fakebook and Youtube, which are increasingly censuring people.
To speed up this process we need more people to go offline by promoting Steemit, bringing new people.
Censure by FB should make people leave in droves. Steemit needs to provide a friendly landing place
Thanks for reading and commenting
STEEM On!!
DaveB
on the one hand i want steem to be low in price for as long as possible to be able to get alot more steem as reward then when price would be high. However I think that soon steemit will get more and more adopters like you say and prices might go up higher and sooner then you are writing. Price went this year from 7 cents to 2.7$. Then the heasi arouhnd bitcoin ahppend. So potentially in 1 year or 2 years we might see a much higher price for steem. Especially when the next HF are happened and when steemit is out of beta and doing marketingcampaigns.
Thoughtful comment - shows you are thinking and planning.
Best result for any individual is prices are low for a long time to allow maximum entry, and then price takes a huge jump when you need your money for other purposes.
Applied to the stock market, the best result for anyone in their 20's, would be an 80% crash, so they can invest maximum now and get most for their money. With the market recovering in 30 years back to new highs, when they need to start withdrawing money.
Of course an 80% drop in stock market would be on the back of other major real world calamities, so no one of any age would practically want the 80% drop
But I see the principle of what you are saying
STEEM On!!
DaveB