Forecasts for Steemit

Analyzing the news feed, you come to this:

June - July

After news of the compensation is to users at the end of June, began the rapid growth rate STEEM.
From 1 to 20 July Steemit market capitalization has risen from 18 million to 392 million dollars, and for a while Steemit ecosystem was the third in terms of capitalization, after the network Bitcoin and Ethereum. Peak price of the underlying cryptocurrency, STEEM, reached US $ 4.5 per unit.

It attracted a large number of new participants in the network. On July 20 Steemit were 10 000 participants, and for 20 August, the total number of users exceeded 60 000 people.
However, the decline began after the peak, which continues today. Only for the week of August 4 STEEM value fell by 40%.

August

The number of users is growing, but the growth rate is not enough even to maintain the current level of capitalization.
Offer coins. More than 90% Steemit concentrated in tokens SP capitalization, which are not sold in the market and users can convert them only with the help of Power Down procedure, which takes two years: once a week Power Down converts full SP amount in the account divided by 104 (52 week * 2 years) and pay it in STEEM.

In the past three weeks, the amount of liquid STEEM has increased from 2.84% to 3.96%. This means increasing the supply of liquid STEEM on the market by 61% in three weeks.

This increase in liquidity suggests that owners of large accounts ( "whales" in Steemit terminology) mass start Power Down. This process will continue in the future, although its effect will decrease in the future.

Content produced by users Steemit is specific. Attention is focused on topics and ideas cryptocurrency anarchy.

Recently, "whales" are trying hard to change this allocation toward greater diversity, but in the short term, it limits the growth of the user base.
In addition, the drop in the number of active participants (placing posts and commenting) is observed in the last two weeks: from August 8 to 14 21 000 from 15 to 21 August 16 000.
The negative point is the increased demand for stable tokens SBD - this is another evidence that "whales" do not send their SP for maintaining content and accelerated withdrawal from the ecosystem Steemit.

Future

Steemit social network is still in the beta stage and its economic model is constantly subject to change. Since the problems described above are solved in the near future will not likely drop in prices STEEM will continue in the short term. This, however, does not prevent to participate in the work as a content creator, since it does not require investment, and about half of the remuneration paid in SBD - stable tokens, the price of which is tied to the dollar and Bitcoin.
Steemit ecosystem based on the stimulation of consumption - the policy pursued by many developed countries. The difference is that Steemit - very small ecosystem. If the economy is even a small country - the sea, the Steem can be compared to a home aquarium, and negative processes in small ecosystems are developing much faster than larger ones.
Will the system to withstand the test of strength, will show the near future.