Cryptocurrency/Financial Markets Q1 2021 Update

Hi Everyone,

It has been a very interesting Q1 for 2020 and a good time to reflect on my post from last year (https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@banglasteve/bitcoin-cryptocurrency-and-markets-a-summary-of-2020-and-what-to-expect-for-2021)

To summarise some of the moves:

• Bitcoin tagged almost $62,000 USD (Almost $80,000 AUD - yikes!). At the time of writing my last blog it was $17.5k USD. What a parabola! Also more institutional interest and investment coming through every week!
• Ethereum broke $2,000 USD (This is the base platform for all this NFT hype)
• Some cryptocurrencies have pumped 100-1000%: https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/3x-long-shitcoin-index-token/
• NFT (Non Fungible Tokens) craze: https://variety.com/2021/digital/news/nft-craze-beeple-jpeg-artwork-69-million-1234928289/
• Gold went reverse in direction to my expectations to a low of $1680 USD. However it is almost $1750USD at the time of writing. Could this be the low?
• Copper and commodities went absolutely mental - Just check the monthly chart below or look at some miner's like BHP's share price.
• House prices: Number only go up?
• Elon Musk tweeting about DOGE and crypto and even selling a song about NFT's as an NFT https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/17/elon-musk-turns-down-1-million-offer-to-buy-his-tweet-as-an-nft.html

2021 Moving forward
Stonks markets and all asset prices in general are going higher. There is a silent inflation creeping but central banks are leading us to believe that it hasn't been noticed on their traditional metrics (2-3% is their targets). To simplify inflation for those that don't understand, it is merely the increase in costs of goods or services or an expectation that they will increase.

Now, the traditional metrics are laggards in my opinion. Meaning they lag behind the real market and real economy. I think we can all attest to the fact that general prices of food, basic consumption goods are all increasing whether you call it COVID tax or "inflation" it doesn't matter. It exists.

In fact, the 10-year treasury notes/yields are increasing - What does this mean? Simply it means the expectation that interest rates will rise in 10 years is awakening. Why do interest rates increase? To control asset prices and inflation. Man this all sounds like a loop of a 'dog chasing its tail' per se. Probably the most accurate description, given the fact that this Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) of money printing is unusual and flooding the system with dollars and can be compared to giving life support to a dying patient - Can it actually rescue them? Only time will tell. Miracles can happen so we can only be hopeful.

Quite simply, so long as the money keeps printing i.e stimulus checks keep coming through like the $1.9 trillion in the US or the AUS Job Seekers/Keepers policies, we practice "only up". But I am starting to become slightly skeptical of markets and the valuations of some companies make no sense. Gravity always prevails - "What goes up must come down". In the next few months I will suggest unloading on positions as we start getting close to top. Just note it is impossible to call a top and markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.The best metrics to sell are when you feel like you are a king or just euphoric in sentiment.

Once the money stops printing you will watch the markets stagnate or reverse. Keep this in mind. We aren't geniuses we are just capitalising on easy money. If you have been saving money in the bank you have actually missed the greatest investment opportunity possibly of this decade. For those with fear, all I have to say is "don't fear change, fear being in the same place". The world and universe will help you if you ask for it but you must put in the effort to at least try.

Predictions 2021 onwards
Many grains of salt as always as these are just what I think and I have no way of fortune telling the future but predictions are always fun to make based on what information is available:

• Gold starts ripping higher over the next 6-12 months as fundamentals and technicals catch up with reality
• Cryptocurrency markets are word of the street and everyone is talking about them and shitcoins pump some crazy numbers through Q2 2021
• Commodities and asset prices continue higher and we slowly see stimulus pull back as travel and world economies open up through 'COVID passports' and further vaccination of society
• After Q2 2021 we might see a crash in the markets. This might be the real deal unless we get more "stimmy"

Interesting times for us all. Take care and stay vested and well rested. As always start small and learn big.

Cryptoshaf

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