Recession coming to the US?
The #February #2019 jobs 🕵🏼♂️ report stated that the #US added just 20,000 jobs, well short of the 180,000 estimate ⤵️.
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Is this number just a blip 🔊 on the radar or could it be signaling that a recession is looming 🌂?
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If the #economy does slip into recession, it appears likely that the Federal Reserve will slash rates back to zero and launch another round of Quantitative Easing (money printing) 🖨 as it has already paused rate hikes while the economy is still “booming.”
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With $1T 💸 yearly deficits currently, it’s painful 🏥 to think about how large they may get under a recession, probably over $2T/ year.
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What types of ramifications could that have for US dollars 💸 and bonds?
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Our guess would be a significant devaluation ⤵️ of the USD, making our imports more expensive (and A LOT of the stuff we buy is imported) as well has higher interest rates📊because if inflation is high, nobody is going to lend money below the rate of #inflation ...
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So why would a decision like this be made 💭?
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Because it makes politicians 👨🏻💼 in office look a lot better if they can quickly pull the economy out of recession in the short run by infusing unprecedented amounts of cash 💰 into it rather than letting the recession run its natural course and allowing the economy to healthily 🥬 rebuild itself.
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A good analogy is an alcoholic 🍺that needs more and more #alcohol and refuses to ever sober up 🍕even though that’s the only thing that can save them in the long run.
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Politicians will always promise “free” stuff because they are trying to get elected 📤, and it’s sad 😔 that so many people actually believe it is free.
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