STEEM: Whales Are Losing Their Power....The System Is Not Broken...Report through 2/15/18
I last reported the numbers in a post that covered through January 31, 2018.
It was a follow up to a post I put together showing the shift on a 90 day basis.
Special thanks tho @arcange who runs these numbers everyday.
Now that we are past the 15th of the month (granted in a short month), I figured I would post the numbers again.
Here is the breakdown at the end of January:
The total MVests here is 382,412.
On a percentage basis:
Whales 63.72%
Orcas 17.54%
Dolphins 10.55%
Minnows 5.21%
Red Fish 1.28%
Inactive 1.685%
2/15/2016
The total MVests here is 377797.
On a percentage basis:
Whales 62.73%
Orcas 17.86%
Dolphins 10.85%
Minnows 5.44%
Red Fish 1.32%
Inactive 1.78%
The change over that time period is as such:
Whales -1.5%
Orcas +1.8%
Dolphins +2.8%
Minnows +4.6%
Red Fish +3.1%
Inactive +5.9%
Let us take a look at the breakdown of users:
1/31/2018
2/15/2018
So what does this all tell us.
To start: THE SYSTEM IS WORKING AS IT IS DESIGNED!!!!
The rich are not getting richer. In fact, more of the pie is going to the smaller accounts.
On Jan 31st, the Whales and Orcas has 310,770 MVests; on February 15, 2018, 304,488...a decrease of 2.02%.
The final thing that I wanted to mention is this number: 8819
That is the total number of people who are Minnow (around 500SP) or above.
My friends, that is called being an early adopter....
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Good to see these very encouraging numbers. Yes, it sure looks like Steemit is working as "planned"! Good news for everyone, whales included, even if some haven't realized it yet.
I highly suggest having a look at this article by @lextenebris which has some deeper and very interesting commentary on a similar topic.
It suggests that many of the whales at the top of the eco-system would be losing mvest because they're taking it out, not reinvesting it in the community (at least that's what I got out of the read).
Let me know what you think. :)
Edit: Upvoting for visibility. Its important work that they've done.
Thanks @holoz0r. I will give it a read.
And if they are cashing out, how does that change things. The fact they are powering down means that their SP is weakened, hence making the rest of the community stronger. People complain whales have all the power. If a Whale sells his/her stake and leaves, isnt that person eliminated from the reward pool?
I'm interested to see what can be done with data from the top 200 accounts in terms of % of the reward pool obtained versus the (aggregate) percentage of the reward pool is given to those not within the top 200.
So let's say a whale gets 0.8% of the reward pool in any given week, is their growth potential (if they were to reinvest the liquid rewards) equal, or more than that of a minnow?
I would wager that it would be more. My hypothesis on such a trend would be as follows:
(This would be on the basis of reputation number alone, and the size of vests following them)
I don't have the SQL / database smarts to pull the data, but I think it would be fascinating to see.
Yeah I lack the skills to pill info from the blockchain also.
One point to remember, is MVests get more expensive with time even if the price does not change. One buying in today versus a year ago is going to pay more for the MVest than the one a year age even if the price is identical. That is one advantage to being in early and staying in.
You are correct in that a Whale could cash out and buy back in...just like someone else can come in with a large stake if he or she wanted and become an instant Whale.
However, the sell out, buy in game at these levels is a risky move. Some might get it right but if they miss, it is costly. The worst thing to do is to sell while believing the price will be cheaper to buy in and have it run on you. This easily could happen.
I am not sure I follow you about the reputation...that is not based on MVests...if one powers down, he or she maintains the reputation.
You don't need to be a whale to abuse the system. Actually, it is easier for smaller accounts to abuse the system, because they go under the radar and/or tolerated.
All you have to do is to post, comment, and self vote 10 times a day and you'll see returns to your capital that no other legal investment would provide, only for a limited time of course.
That is until the whole currency and the platform crashes. I disapprove of this type of behavior, but the system allows it. It's a %65 Million USD per year problem, if you do the math. All of that cash comes from the Steem/Steem Power holders that don't abuse the system.
This is a good point. Whales cashing out is actually bad news. That means that big investors are losing their faith in the system and selling their stake off slowly.
My thoughts exactly, @taskmaster4450. The big guys are cashing out and even transisto has talked about being a bag holder.
That's technically not what I've shown.
What I've shown is that funds transfers are primarily (by target) moving into the top 200 accounts by SP not out of. I pointedly did not make any analysis of the magnitude of any of those transfers, primarily because I couldn't come up with a good way to actually present that much information in a meaningful way.
I'm still considering that.
The overall level of liquidity in the pool of investiture appears to be static, for the most part. It doesn't appear as if a lot of that value is being transferred out of the chain – it's just sitting there.
Not doing much.
Just sitting there.
Hello, @taskmaster4450!
Im glad to see precise information.
What shocked me is the increase of inactive accounts, whats your opinion on that?... finally, it doesnt matter how much power the Whales have, if more people is leaving the platform in relation of the one adopting it, Steem would have problems to grow... A month ago, Steemit was in the top 500 in USA sites, now is pulling back to 750.
Also Vice abandoned the SMT proyect, and EOS is coming with a much better platform to develope social media (now that @dan and @ned are publicly divorced, thats no good news)....
I love Steem, i have invested, im sure it is still going to grow this year... but, im concerned about all this people leaving the proyect, becoming inactive... whats your opinion on that?
Anways, as usual, thanks for your info!
D.
Vice decided to fork the blockchain...why? I have no idea. Perhaps they felt it better to be their own STEEM. Is it a blow? Perhaps. Although it might be best that way since the stigma of that in force on here could drive other legitimate entities away.
The number of daily active users continues to grow over time so that is what is important. I am not sure what the inactives are to begin with, so I cant really comment on them. I do not know what @arcange used to determine when one is inactive.
Nevertheless, it is normal. How many accounts does Facebook have compared to the number of true users? Same with Reddit. YouTube? We see that all over the place. The difference is , I believe, some of the inactives, might come back. Looking at the total, there are some tokens in their accounts. They might someday wake up and realize they have a little money on this blockchain.
As for EOS, that is going to be interesting. I dont think Dan ever intended to have them compete. @ned and him fighting isnt a healthy thing and I do not know what is behind it. Nevertheless, in spite of it all, I dont think @dan is really after @ned anyway...he has his eyes set on Vitalik and ethereum.
People think blockchains compete because we are reared in a competitive mindset. Let me ask you, if you are a developer who creates a business on STEEM, and there is no problem with functionality, i.e. your transactions are getting through, are you going to move your business? Especially since EOS could well be a completely different language from steem. Do you see D.Tube suddenly up and moving?
I think at the end of the day, the people who are here are going to remain here....EOS might well be a top blockchain too but there is no reason, if development keeps up, why STEEM wont be one also.
Nice to read you, @taskmaster4450!
It is true about the account inactivity, and it also works to keep up the STEEM value: lots of tokens burned in inactive accounts. I think the platforms that have already being designed in the STEEM blockchain, for sure will remain... ive heard from the creator of D.Tube that he migth move to the SMT model to run an ICO, and thats good news even tho it is a little bit confusing how SMT tokens will interact with the price and value of the STEEM token...
What is is true, is that new devolopers of social media would chose the best machine to build upon, and that would be EOS for sure. I've being researching all the possible info about @ned and @dan, you know, "to protect my investment", and @dan publiccly said that EOS would be the ground level of making "more and better social media". Remember that he built STEEM to convert users to his proyect (learning the lesson of BitShares with technology adoption) and he will do the exact same model with EOS... Also, he is being really critical about the governance upon steem (the bots, the self-vote, the whales, the token distribution, etc...).
The advantage of STEEM is the first-move... I think June-July will be a desicive month for the Social Media in the blockchain, with the release of APPICS and EOS. APPICS, if they manage to accomplish what they promise, to make the blockchain acccesible and understandable to "average-joe" they migth have the first killer-app in the blockchain.... So thats what i think STEEM will still be growing this year, but, 2019-2020 will determine weather if EOS or STEEM will become the mass-adoption social media in the blockchain.
Of course, we still have to see which proyects emerge with EOS and with SMT... Nothing have being said with EOS, and, apart from APPICS, i havent seen any exiting proyects coming this year for the SMT.
So, we will see :)
I love your content, man! ill come to post more often.
Cheers,
D.
I have a second gaming account. I have seen huge surge of let's players vomiting one or two videos in a week or two. They get couple of 0.01 upvotes. I think so many of them are just trying to fish without effort. They don't look for others content whilest their own content seems to be very very mainstreamish games. My other account grows slower & slower and I have so far seen to be able grab maybe like one of the new users. Early december in D.tube I couldn't even find gameplay videos. Also people that have been attracted from youtube have not yet attracted investors.
This is definitely good news and it is so much better than the last report that I read. I believe that more power should be given to dolphins who have genuine intention to make this platform even better. Today we have two economies and I hope Steemit would not have the same path.
It is moving in that direction. I post this at intervals, well I only did it a few times...but I will continue to show what moves are taking place. Over the longer term, in spite of times where there might be a reversal, I see this trend continuing. The reward pool simply is going to ensure that. As more people join, the red fish and minnow pool gets stronger. This means, as numbers, they will overwhelm the reward pool and end up taking the vast percentage of it. Thus, their accounts as a total, will grow faster as a percentage of the whole.
This is a fascinating and heartening post, my friend. Sometimes it's good to see the numbers to stop from getting discouraged.
Well, this gives hope to new comers to the platform. At least I can be a testimony to this. Gradually in the last few days I have been making progress even as a red fish.
And you will keep making progress @lordjames as long as you keep working at it. Everything on the STEEM network compounds. The point you are at today is a much different starting point than where you were a month ago. This is the big secret. Everyone wants to start at the top. Consistent activity builds upon itself to ensure growth.
The rewards build right in line with that. Over time, your voting power, as long as you power up, increases meaning you become more valuable to the system.
Give it 3 or 4 months and you will be much higher than you are today.
@taskmaster4450, you are a great Steemit advocate. And you always love to back up your claims with figures.
The recent figures show a reduction in the control of whales. That's a good thing.
But do those figures tell all the story? I think there is more to it. And more must be done to maintain confidence in the platform. Kudos to the Steemit team by the way. But more must be done
Signed up late 2016 and I'm still swimming with the Redfishes.
Started from the bottom and I'm still f**kin here.
Perhaps 880 posts since Septembers 2016 has something to do with it.
That's a show of a change in focus. I got tired of spending the time creating good content when I watched my wife’s half passed photos slaughter my posts.
However, if I would've stuck it out I wouldn't be bitching, but I also wouldn’t have been able to buy our new house on a shit credit score had Inot focused in trading.
Apologies for my ramble. I'm bored and ran out of things to argue with myself about.
Excellent work as always. It makes me happy to see that things have been evening out and the whales aren't playing games like they used to.
They are still playing games...that has not changed. And they still wield a great deal of influence. The big thing is that the Whales lost more than 7% of their power in 2017 and it looks like it will be an even bigger amount in 2018. The distribution is spreading out. Part of it will be Whales cashing out for huge profits....that makes sense.
The other part is the number of Red Fish and Minnows that start posting each day. Once we have a couple million people on this blockchain, the sheer numbers will overwhelm the Whales....even with their VP, it will be impossible to maintain their standing as a percentage of the whole.
In time. a whale causing a stir will only be a ripple.
🙏 Thank you
Can i ask a question? What does delegating 100 sp do for you?
Delegating your SP is another way to say lending or borrowing.
If you delegate 100 SP for X amount of time you will be absent that SP from your account till your delegation time frame comes to an end.
Every delegation service I’ve seen offers their own reward amounts either in SBD/STEEM, Upvotes or Resteems.
That is really pretty awsome. I do watch some of them power down and the funny thing is they are bringing more in a week thsn they are able to power down sometimes. Its crazy but awesome at the same time.
I imagine it certainly will fluctuate from time to time. There will be weeks where the numbers reverse and the Whales power grows. However, as an overall trend, when looked at over a 90 day period, I feel certain it is a trend that will continue as more people join this blockchain. Simply put, they cannot post enough to maintain their position. The reward pool is going to be eaten up by newer people...
Which is great because it will kick off the network effect.
Still seems like there is an 80/20 split. Whales + Orcas = 80%. Moreover, by looking at the charts you provide, it seems like there are only 300 accounts that are classified as Whales or Orcas, and close to 750,000 or 800,000 other Steemit accounts. That means that, out of a platform quickly growing to 1 million total users, 300 accounts control 80% of the wealth. That just seems incredibly inequitable to me. I hope it is changing.
Am I missing something here? I'm trying to work with the numbers you provide.
Of course they do...they are the early adopters...the ones who took the risk early on when Steemit was far from a sure thing. There was a time, from what I read, back in March of last year, where there was talk that STEEM would not make it. So I have no problem with them profiting handsomely.
As for your question look at this...
https://steemit.com/steem/@taskmaster4450/steem-whales-are-losing-their-power-the-system-is-not-broken-a-90-day-shift-in-the-numbers
On October 26th, Whale and Orcas controled 84%....a bit over 90 days later 82%...now two weeks after that...just shy of 81%...
This will continue as the masses start to join and the reward pool is eaten by newer accounts. The more they post, the less there will be for the Whales due to the sheer volume of people.
I agree that it appears to have the makings of a positive trend. However, I'm not quite as ready to buy into the "early adopter" argument. I have no doubt that many of the Whales got in early and took a big risk when the price of Steem was quite low. And I applaud them for that. However, as I understand it, there is not a strict correlation between "time on Steemit" and "wealth" (as measured by SP). For example, the price of Steem right now is about $4.50. And, as you point out in one of your earlier comments, a Whale needs 500K SP. So if someone was willing (and able), couldn't they just "buy" their way into Whale status and then influence the future direction of Steemit so that they could profit? For example, what if Jamie Dimon of JP Morgan secretly signed up for Steemit and spent $1 million to become a Steemit Whale? As I understand it, there is no correlation between wealth and reputation, either, with some Whales having a lowly 25 reputation, so "time on Steemit" or "time spent getting upvotes" is not a factor. So it's not necessarily the case that "early adopter" status is a necessary or sufficient to become a Whale, right?
Yes someone could buy into Whale status if they were willing to invest $2.2M...if someone put that much into a platform like this, dont you think they deserve such status?
And most Whales were early adopters....few have bought in of late that I know of. Of the few I looked up, all were in mid 2016....
As for the correlation, there is absolutely a huge correlation between time on steemit and wealth AS LONG AS ONE IS ACTIVE. The entire system is based upon contribution to the ecosystem. Those who are here longer, and active, will contribute more. The newer ones have their contributions reflected in their accounts. Over time, as people maintain consistency and put the compounding nature of this blockchain to work, their accounts grow.
And the numbers are showing that. Each time I run this, the lower ranks, Red Fish and Minnows grow. While it might not be fast enough for some, it is altering the landscape (and we are still on the manual sign up system).
Reputation has nothing directly to do with wealth. As one powers down, the wealth decrease but reputation remains the same. By the same token, one with a big accoung who upsets everyone will have a low rep but huge wealth.
Of course, Dimon, if he did invest $2.2M into SP, he best get active on here to get a return. If he isnt, he should just buy that on the open market and hold STEEM. SP is meant to be used to increase the worth of the ecosystem, in turn, generating more wealth for oneself.
I am not sure how long a trend is needed to convince people...this has taken place over the last year plus that I researched it and it continues. Of course, it makes sense...get 1M active daily users on here and the Whales flopping around will be a minor ripple as compared to the tidal wave it causes now.
It may continue to decrease, but watch me calculate the actual USD amount 😁
Steem market cap is 1,123mln. 81% from that amount is $910mln. That amount belongs to the 300 richest steemonians. Which results in just above $3mln per user. To my opinion that is a very nice amount for early adopters. I would say it is time for an ethical discussion about if such high amounts are really fair?
Also knowing that these orcas and whales week easily make a lot more money in the near future.
To my opinion at least some of these millions should be used to attract and hold new users.
Why should it?
STEEM is a system based upon the contribution to the STEEM blockchain. The ones who are in that group contributed greatly...a lot more than any of the newer people.
The truth is what people cannot handle...one's account reflects exactly the worth of what one contributed to this blockchain. People can argue that all they want but the reality is the ones arguing it are those who have not contributed anything. I have yet to see someone with 10,000 posts state that the system is unfair and does not reward content. Never. Yet I see people who have a few hundred or maybe a thousand posts claim that.
You want to have an ethical discussion about a blockchain you are on for less than two months and have contributed 188 posts. Not to be an ass, but come back when you have 5K or 10K posts and tell me if you have the same viewpoint.
What people cannot handle is that STEEM is not broken. Sure there are a few things that need work but the overall system is not unfair. It is true it is not evenly distributed but, the white paper never guaranteed that. It did guarantee rewards for each person who contributes to the blockchain whether it be time or money. And the more time on contributed to this blockchain, the more wealth one builds.
People are too accustomed to hand holding...wanting more handed to them. That is the culture the banksters created...it is one of dependence.
There is nothing to stop someone from posting 20-30 quality comments a day...over 90 days, that will significantly impact ones account positively.
That is why I tell newer people the proper path is commenting....do that and your following will build plus one gets paid for those comments...
That is how one can build an account.
You're not an ass. I really appreciate your honesty.
You have a fair point that the total value of ones account is the result of your accumulated actions and the rewards you received.
At this moment I'm not complaining about steemit. I still have a strong believe in the whole concept. And I think in time I can just earn a little money by posting and commenting.
But besides earning money via posts and comments I think I can also earn money in a few different ways. My background is economic/mathematics. And I think I can come up with some nice tricks. Let's just assume I will be able to come up with something that earns me a lot of money, then my own conscious makes me ask myself if I can live with that?
So perhaps this is just a very personal thing? I guess I should just give it a try to earn some bucks. If it works I can always take some time to think of I will continue earning money with tricks.
I hope this clarifies my earlier post? Feel free for any further discussion!
Make 3 million and try to live in finland, you will be disappointed.
I've heard Finland is expensive. But is it so expensive. I would think that $75k is more then enough to live 1 year. Then $3mln lets you survive for 40 years.
Give me $3mln and I try it myself 😋😜😎
When I was in the constuction site, all those old guys said that you are not going to live rest of your life with few millions. The thing in finland is that right at the moment you try to do something, all the prices just explode. Homes, cars and anything beyond is going to cost you a god-damn fortune.