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RE: Did we screw ourselves with HF 21?
I've been thinking that they should just get rid of SBD. The peg has never worked. Seems like it's mostly just a bunch of extra complexity for the new user to try to get their head around. In principle, I like the concept, but if it doesn't work reliably, I don't think it's providing any real benefits to anyone.
In a somewhat stable or growing market SBD works "fine". Historically it hovers around 40% within 5 cents of one USD and about 60% of the time within 15 cents. I deleted the file where I did that study so I might be off a little bit but it's within that ballpark.
The problem is that the crypto market has huge swings and the mechanism that makes the corrections to the supply takes to long and therfore the market can't correct itself fast enough. I think that the changes made on HF20 have proven to be counter productive. It only lead to an increase in the printing of SBD and a substantial increase in the real inflation of steem way above the schedule.
Now with the SPS printing SBD without regard to the 10% rule it just makes it not worth it.
I agree with you about the SPS. That's a good point, and I hadn't considered it until this post.
Just 'cause you got me curious, I checked against the closing prices on coinmarketcap. Here's what I found, where the price is between X and 1/X.
It is in that ballpark you described, but I also think it's problematic for the price to be outside the (3/4 -> 4/3) range for more than 25% of days.