Steem Econometrics, Preliminaries

Unlike a traditional economy, the STEEM economy is almost fully transparent. We can see every transaction and every on-blockchain account balance. However, the STEEM economy is voluntary, so plenty of users are "sitting out" or never became active, and that can cloud the picture. On the other end of the spectrum, large insider and infrastructure accounts also dominate.

(Some parts of the STEEM economy are less visible. Custodial accounts like brokerages maintain ownership information that isn't visible on the STEEM blockchain.)

I'm interested in studying how value is transferred between different classes of users. A conventional way is to segment by wealth, so let's see what that looks like on STEEM.

STEEM wealth by percentile

Percentile (# of accounts)	value of account (% of total value)	average	minimum	asset distribution
Top 0.001% accounts (4)	15196632 STEEM (5.25%)	3799157.9 STEEM	1755126.979 STEEM	15.6% STEEM, 7.3% SBD, 77.1% VESTS
Top 0.01% accounts (36)	45256365 STEEM (15.62%)	1257121.3 STEEM	495336.642 STEEM	14.0% STEEM, 2.9% SBD, 83.1% VESTS
Top 0.1% accounts (359)	85615128 STEEM (29.56%)	238482.3 STEEM	48877.774 STEEM	14.1% STEEM, 2.3% SBD, 83.6% VESTS
Top 1.0% accounts (3589)	117595160 STEEM (40.60%)	32765.4 STEEM	2961.157 STEEM	14.2% STEEM, 2.5% SBD, 83.4% VESTS
Top 5.0% accounts (17941)	130513835 STEEM (45.06%)	7274.6 STEEM	288.372 STEEM	14.4% STEEM, 2.9% SBD, 82.7% VESTS
Top 10.0% accounts (35881)	133196780 STEEM (45.99%)	3712.2 STEEM	74.929 STEEM	14.5% STEEM, 3.1% SBD, 82.4% VESTS
Top 20.0% accounts (71762)	134900137 STEEM (46.57%)	1879.8 STEEM	35.915 STEEM	14.4% STEEM, 3.2% SBD, 82.4% VESTS
Insider accounts (8)	84936467 STEEM (29.32%)	10617058.4 STEEM		11.2% STEEM, 0.0% SBD, 88.7% VESTS
Exchange accounts (12)	67678669 STEEM (23.37%)	5639889.1 STEEM		72.6% STEEM, 20.4% SBD, 7.0% VESTS

The percentiles include each preceding group; for example, the top 1% are also included in the top 5%. The insiders and exchange accounts are separate (as explained below in the methodology section.)

STEEM wealth by rank

This ranking partitions the accounts, so there is no overlap. Exchange and insiders are excluded from the top 5% accounts here as well (otherwise they would be > 95%.)

Rank (# of accounts)	value of account (% of total value)	average	minimum	asset distribution
Top 17941 active accounts (5%)	130513835 STEEM (45.06%)	7274.6 STEEM	288.372 STEEM	14.4% STEEM, 2.9% SBD, 82.7% VESTS
5-10%	2683021 STEEM (0.93%)	149.5 STEEM	74.927 STEEM	19.5% STEEM, 13.8% SBD, 66.7% VESTS
10-15%	1003993 STEEM (0.35%)	56.0 STEEM	42.618 STEEM	11.1% STEEM, 10.4% SBD, 78.4% VESTS
15-20%	699360 STEEM (0.24%)	39.0 STEEM	35.915 STEEM	3.9% STEEM, 3.9% SBD, 92.2% VESTS
20-25%	521623 STEEM (0.18%)	29.1 STEEM	23.149 STEEM	9.3% STEEM, 11.0% SBD, 79.7% VESTS
25-30%	318424 STEEM (0.11%)	17.7 STEEM	14.745 STEEM	10.2% STEEM, 14.2% SBD, 75.5% VESTS
30-35%	236554 STEEM (0.08%)	13.2 STEEM	11.493 STEEM	5.0% STEEM, 8.7% SBD, 86.3% VESTS
35-40%	183128 STEEM (0.06%)	10.2 STEEM	9.211 STEEM	5.7% STEEM, 8.1% SBD, 86.2% VESTS
40-45%	144697 STEEM (0.05%)	8.1 STEEM	6.490 STEEM	7.6% STEEM, 13.7% SBD, 78.7% VESTS
45-50%	109790 STEEM (0.04%)	6.1 STEEM	5.858 STEEM	3.4% STEEM, 4.4% SBD, 92.2% VESTS
50-55%	99797 STEEM (0.03%)	5.6 STEEM	5.311 STEEM	3.1% STEEM, 4.2% SBD, 92.6% VESTS
55-60%	88503 STEEM (0.03%)	4.9 STEEM	4.182 STEEM	5.8% STEEM, 10.1% SBD, 84.0% VESTS
60-65%	60827 STEEM (0.02%)	3.4 STEEM	3.001 STEEM	7.4% STEEM, 16.7% SBD, 75.9% VESTS
65-70%	41260 STEEM (0.01%)	2.3 STEEM	1.709 STEEM	8.7% STEEM, 28.0% SBD, 63.2% VESTS
70-75%	24278 STEEM (0.01%)	1.4 STEEM	1.064 STEEM	5.7% STEEM, 25.1% SBD, 69.2% VESTS
75-80%	17696 STEEM (0.01%)	1.0 STEEM	0.869 STEEM	1.7% STEEM, 9.2% SBD, 89.1% VESTS
80-85%	13730 STEEM (0.00%)	0.8 STEEM	0.656 STEEM	1.6% STEEM, 16.1% SBD, 82.3% VESTS
85-90%	10574 STEEM (0.00%)	0.6 STEEM	0.540 STEEM	1.0% STEEM, 8.0% SBD, 91.0% VESTS
90-95%	9221 STEEM (0.00%)	0.5 STEEM	0.403 STEEM	1.2% STEEM, 4.4% SBD, 94.3% VESTS
95-100% (17909 accounts)	2970 STEEM (0.00%)	0.2 STEEM		5.0% STEEM, 23.5% SBD, 71.4% VESTS
Inactive accounts (722333)	249270 STEEM (0.09%)	0.3 STEEM		0.0% STEEM, 0.0% SBD, 100.0% VESTS

Totals

Total users: 1081141
"Active" users: 358808
Total value: 289647687.36847353
Total STEEM: 78284919.01610987
Total SBD: 15249732.624009054
Total VESTS: 391394346308.6877

Methodology

I captured all Steem account names as of 7/27/2018. Then I queried for their current account balance; this takes a while so it may lead to some undercounting or double-counting, as transfers (and rewards) are happening while my script is running. The total values shown here are from summing the accounts (active and inactive) rather than using a different source; it ignores both the pending reward pool and any unclaimed rewards.

I omitted both custodial accounts (exchanges) and insider accounts due to their disproportionate sizes. The major accounts I identified in each category:

insiders: @steem, @steemit, @steemit2, @steemitblog, @misterdelegation, @ned, @dan, @dantheman

exchanges @bittrex, @poloniex, @blocktrades, @binance-hot, @upbitsteemhot, @upbit-exchange, @myupbit, @openledger-dex, @huobi-withdrawal, @hitbtc-exchange, @rudex, @tidex

In order to handle the large number of inactive accounts, I imposed a liquidity threshold for inclusion: > 0.1 STEEM, or > 0.1 SBD, or > 1050 VESTS. This was much faster than querying every account history to see if they had any transactions, and I didn't see any information in the get_accounts response that was a more useful filter.

To convert SBD to the equivalent amount of STEEM, I used today's market price of 1.200000 SBD/STEEM. To convert VESTS to STEEM, I used the currently reported rate of 0.000493270 VEST/STEEM.

Initial observations

There are approximately 5.1 liquid STEEM for every SBD, but many of the wealth classes show ratios much different from that. The 65-70% band has 8.7% of its wealth in STEEM and 28.0% in SBD! Perhaps these are old accounts that reflected an old payout mix; but it's not clear why they should cluster at certain account values.

The "float" of STEEM and SBD actively traded in exchanges is only about 23% of the total value in the Steem blockchain. That 62.9 million STEEM (considering both combined) is 65% of the 96.6 million available in liquid assets (non-vested.) I think the former number is more representative; a low float increases market volatility. It's a similar percentage of float to that you'd see immediately post-IPO, which is relatively low for a public company;.

Almost all wealth is held by the top 5% of accounts, insiders, and custodial accounts. It's not clear what the distribution of custodial accounts is; should we expect it to be similar to the values we see on the blockchain? Or would it be more evenly spread out?

In the future I hope to look at a week or two of transfers and rewards, to see whether wealth moves between "classes" or whether it mainly accrues to those already highly vested. I may also try partitioning the accounts into equal-wealth groups instead of equal-population groups. If the Steem economy is working well, we should expect to see high-wealth accounts selling some of their liquidity to lower-wealth accounts, who then vest it to participate in Steem. If money (including rewards) mainly moves the other direction, that could be a worrying sign.