More accurately, it's game design analysis. We know how people respond to systems and we can observe how they have responded to the system.

That is, after all, how you make predictions. Unless you own a time machine, you can't analyze data that hasn't happened yet.

I don't need to assume that the majority of whales that spread the love that are capable of. We can observe our experience of the blockchain. We can read all of the content that the BI group has generated regarding historical behavior of various tags and content.

So, yes, it's obvious that egoistic whales are the majority. It's extremely clear that most of the SP on the platform is not, in fact, going to voting. At all. The vast bulk of it is sitting in accounts which have neither inputs or outputs, just acting as repositories of value.

There are some extremely active accounts at the top of the chain – which are exchanges. They don't vote for much of anyone. They don't get curation value. They don't get author rewards. They exist to exchange tokens and that's all.

That is the brutal truth, whether we like it or not.