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RE: My Magic Dice on Steem Review.
Yup, I got burned a few times in a row. The probability of it happening was astronomical.
Yup, I got burned a few times in a row. The probability of it happening was astronomical.
Above 50 probability should be about 50% each time, so for it to be above 50 ten times in a row should be less than 0.1% chance, but it happens.
(1/2)^10*100%
I did the math on Magic Dice using the 94% bet which pays 1.043 STEEM if you win.
So:
If you bet 1 STEEM each time and play 100 times:
You will win 94 times for .043 STEEM = 4.042
You will lose 6 times for 1 STEEM = 6
At the end of 100 rolls you will have lost 1.958 STEEM
Then looking at 50% bet which pays 1.960 STEEM if you win.
If you bet 1 STEEM each time and play 100 times:
You will win 50 times for 0.960 STEEM = 48
You will lose 50 times for 1 STEEM = 50
At the end of 100 rolls you will have lost 2 STEEM
I am not a gambler, but took at look at this the other day. I might be missing something, but this is how I think it goes.
You also gain the Magic tokens which I am gambling on the possibility of them being worth something.
Hmm... I wonder how much that would factor in? I don't think there is any way to know in advance.
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