The 4th of July to 11th: The evolution of the price of steem, and a repeat poll.
With less than a week to go, I thought this might be in order.
Analyzing the possible motives:
that could affect the price of Steem, here is one of the ways the price of Steem could play out during the period from the 4th to the 11th of July and beyond.
The price of Steem has been dropping steadily over the last couple of weeks. This could mean a few things, I list a couple:
- Liquid Steem holders are cashing out
- Liquid Steem holders could be depressing the price and lowering market pressures while at the same time amassing bitcoin.
Amassed bitcoin could then be used to "pump the price" of Steem on or before the 4th of July. Due to the weak market pressures, this could cause a rapid rise in the price of Steem and catapult the market cap of Steem through the roof. It would not be in the interest of liquid Steem holders to meet the buyer demand on that day for the reasons discussed below:
The motive behind a pump would be that 4th July payouts for all parties could drastically increase. Possibly even double or triple depending on the strength of the pump and this would outweigh the input costs spent on pumping the price.
I know I have some ammo chilling for just this scenario because I have a potential payout that could rise significantly.
Post 4th July payout the price of Steem will likely drop as those who pumped the price recover their bitcoin for buying back in at lower prices.
There are likely to be some steemit users that cash out Steem Dollars received on the 4th and this will affect the market around the 11th, possibly precipitously. If the price of Steem plummets then that will be an opportune time to buy back in at significantly lowered prices.
Thereafter we should see the market yo-yo back and forth as Steem and its market cap seek to find their real market value.
This won't necessarily happen as described, but it is an interesting scenario to ponder.....
A month ago I ran a poll. You can view the results in the link.
https://steemit.com/steem/@gavvet/quick-poll-what-do-you-plan-to-do-with-any-steem-dollars-that-may-have
With less than a week to go I think its time to repeat it.
Quick Poll, what do you plan to do with any Steem Dollars that may have accrued to you by the 4th July
- Earn Interest on Savings. (SBD pays users who hold it interest)
- Conversion Requests. (primarily be used by speculators looking to buy large quantities of STEEM without moving the market)
- Use the internal market to perform instantaneous trades. (use the real-time price of STEEM)
- Convert to Steem Power (to increase you voting power)
- Provide liquidity by leaving orders on the internal market book
- Do a happy dance and promptly forget all about it.
- Other (please explain)
If there are enough responses and you add your country and possible amounts for the options selected. I can graph the results in a day or two for all to get a visualization.
I'm dumping everything on the 4th as fast as I can to be honest. I'm guessing there is nowhere to go but down with the STEEM Power interest rate currently being 400% yearly.
Whales doing weekly power downs will probably kill the STEEM token value over the next few months, unless they adjust the STEEM Power interest to be at least a half sane level. Not trying to be a jerk here, just pointing this out...happens with EVERY high interest ecoin, no exceptions I'm aware of. I wish I'd checked the interest rates before investing $3.4k a couple weeks ago, oh well. Lol.
Did you stick with it? I'm curious where you're at with this one year later?
1 and 4! Steemit has a bright future and I am ready to invest.
4.) US. 100%, but no idea of actual amount.
Number 1. If I remember correctly, SBD will pay 10% annually. That's a lot better than my bank pays and I'm expecting a lot of natural growth in the price of STEEM long term. I'm from the US but I don't expect a large payout.
I'll cash-out whatever is earned from posts about Fort Galt Studios in order to hire our new writer and finish writing our new series pilot... Besides that, I'll be doing #1 and #4.
UK. 1 & 4.....though depending on how things play out, I might cash out some SD, buy Steem, sell if it pumps dramatically, wait for the inevitable drop, rebuy Steem and convert to 1 & 4. I love Steem/Steemit, I love dishing out votes/cash and keen to maximise my SP.....definitely emotionally involved so who knows if that is the right thing to do.... ;))
No. 4: I think that it's the best decision for the long-term and in the best interest of the site.
I live in the UK.
Options (3) and (5) assume there will be an internal market available in some sort of UI. Anybody knows any details on this? I don't remember @dan or @ned announcing anything like that, but maybe I've missed something.
Blocktrades perhaps
The cli at a minimum. I think ned did say at one point that the steemit site would offer conversions via the internal market, but I could be misremembering.
I'm in the US. Leaning toward 1 and/or 4. Maybe convert a small percent to USD.
I see you left out the most realistic thing people will do, SELL for BTC. Why is no one talking about that scenario?
Take notice that there is no plan to get users to buy STEEM, or any plan at all to even pump it on the open market. There should be a plan and a campaign and maybe even a bonus to buy STEEM after the first payout. But there is nothing.
What is really going to happen?
Be aware of the cheerleaders, they will lead you astray here.
Option 3. Use the internal market to perform instantaneous trades. (use the real-time price of STEEM)
Once its STEEM you can go BTC or any other STEEM currency pair
What internal market?
The only sell option I have heard the insiders talk about is Blocktrades. That is supposed to have a steem dollars to bitcoin exchange. Will sales through Blocktrades drive down the price and value of Steem?
https://steemit.com/steem/@tuck-fheman/lets-have-a-steem-buying-bonanza-on-july-3rd-4th
Go Tuck go!
It's too bad your idea was completely ignored by the team for the past month.
What are your thoughts on the reason?
Steem is a popularity contest.
Your comments in that thread hit the nail on the head. Worth reading.