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RE: STEEM: Breaking upwards or about to break upwards?
Yeah. I've been watching videos on this august's segwit impact to btc price. Scenarios presented
- BTC price dip, movement to ETH
- BTC price dip, movement to ALTCOINS
- BTC price dip, HODL
- BTC to fiat before dip, then buy back when down.
It would have been nice to hear predictions of it not going down though. How do you see this playing out?
To be honest, right now i don't think the market cares at all about all the stuff going with segwit / possible forks - and that, at the moment, all the market action is just based on increased adoption (if this is indeed the case), and 'technicals' (I.e., rather than 'fundamentals').
Still, if a hard work were to actually occur, I would expect huge amounts of turbulance. I'm hoping there won't be a split, and for segwit to get adopted via segwit+segwit2x signaling before Aug 1st when uasf would occur - but I really don't know.
In any case, I don't personally hold much BTC these days (but I do trade it). My holdings are mostly a split between alts and USD. I keep to USD to reduce risk, and also allow for the opportunity to buy into any crash :)
Funny we were just discussing this and now... the market is down to $93B with double-digit negatives on most coins!
I think I should sell my house and get hold of as much crypto as I can. Lol. Kidding. Will never do that.
Lol indeed :)
Yes, it is funny... but that's often the case: the volatility gets less and less, and suddenly it will either break up or down with a lot of force.
Personally, I wouldn't be completely surprised if it pretty much halved from its peak...so maybe e.g. $60B or less. If it did, I'd definitely be looking to buy back with a lot of my cash that's sitting out at the moment. But I still have a lot in crypto too, so I might be looking to offload a bit more on any opportune bounces :)
Yeah. The first time i saw the bloodbath i almost cried. Now that it's my 10th time to witness I just sit back and wait for the movement up.
And buy as much on bargain tokens! Sale! Sale! Sale! Lol.
I hope you're wrong about the $60B though...
Bloodbath? We haven't even got started yet, hehe :P. No, there's no way to predict what will happen - so I'm just joking there. But I just have expereience when bitcoin lost 80% of its value. Even last year ethereum lost over half its value. Plenty of alts have already lost half their value from their peeks this year.
So, seriously, I do think it's sensible to prepare for that scenario if it did happen. I've got plenty of crypto I will just hold even if it fell to 0. But that's balanced by the funds I keep in fiat, which I would hope to use to buy in at the bottom and thus offset the losses from the ones I held throughout.
This though- Bloodbath? We haven't even got started yet, hehe :P
Now I'm getting worried. Lol. My portfolio is still a mess to be honest, I just keep on putting money in on different coins and ico. Too diversified. I'm hoping for another movement up and dispose some, and use the fund for other icos. For some reason im drawn to new projects! I hold a few top 20 coins, long term, and still steadily adding on these whenever able.
Your plan seems legit, specially since you're heavily invested, i think it makes sense.
I don't know if there's going to be a downturn (but all my expereince tells me there will be a deep correction at some point but I don't know when) but because I have so much of my net wealth in the crypto ecosystem, I would be crazy to not hedge against a fall. This can be done simply by allocating a proportion of all your holdings (10%,20%,30%,50% or whatever) to USD/EURO/other fiat and leaving those funds on an exchange (or better, more than one exchange) - so that if and when a crash occurs, you can use that money to increase your crypto holdings before the next rise. Alternatively if you have extra funds in a traditional bank account, then you can use this to buy in when prices are cheap. But if you have everything in crypto, then it simply isn't possible to buy in after a crash, or even buy in after a 'dip'! ;) Really depend how much you have invested in crypto. If it's not a significant proportion, then just holding through a downturn shouldn't affect you negatively too much. But you really have to decide if you want to be a 'holder' or a 'trader'. Personally, I'm both: one proportion is allocated to trading, and the other to holding.
I'm still a holder now, but have thought of the same approach as yours. Part holder and part trader. I need to be educated first on trend analysis before i jump into trading! ^_^
....and now, marketcap is at $88B.
O.M.G.
Mm, but I did say.. :(
Basically, in crypto I think you do have to at least always prepare yourself for every possible scenario...good scenarios like 10x profit, but also an outcome like 90% drop. I.e., if your strategy is hold then just hold whatever: even if it drops by a lot, if you still believe in the underlying value proposition, then it should recover after at some point and then heading back up. That's my own strategy with SP, btw.