Predicting the Future of STEEM and TRON
So the Tron Foundation has apparently bought partnered Steemit and the news has created a bit of a stir amongst the community. The STEEM token price has jumped and while many might start calling “To Da Moon” there is still a lot of confusion and uncertainty amongst regular Steemians as they try and figure out what all this means. Is it a good thing, or a bad thing? Well it’s just a thing, but it sure is interesting and I am trying to look at it objectively to make my own assessment. Here it is…
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These groups are key players to watch. We have a relatively centralised power structure with the Top 20 Witnesses on STEEM and those witnesses potentially will have no power or influence on the TRON blockchain. We might see some key influencers getting paid off by the Tron Foundation (or we might not “see” it if you know what I mean) but generally I’d say that it is NOT in the interests of STEEM Witnesses to go along with the move to TRON. Even if some (or many) of the Top 20 do get swayed, there are plenty of reserve witnesses who might play the “die hard loyalist” role and try to keep the original STEEM blockchain alive as others move to TRON.
For Tron to host Steemit.com it will need to create a new token on the Tron Blockchain. I would be very surprised if this isn’t done via a snapshot of token balances on the original STEEM blockchain, followed by an airdrop of new TRON STEEM tokens in proportion. This basically means that we are probably looking at a kind of Fork that is not too dissimilar to the Bitcoin – Bitcoin Cash Fork we saw in recent years. I suspect that the market knows this and it might be the reason why the STEEM price is pumping as crypto tokens often pump before snapshots of token balances for forks are taken because it means “Free Coins”.
With two tokens there is likely to be a bit of a battle playing out as to who gets to call themselves STEEM. Just like when Bitcoin forked, arguments are still raging about which one is the “True Bitcoin” and there will probably be two vocal and vitriolic camps. Where this is most important is with the exchange listings. Risk averse exchanges are likely to suspend deposits and withdrawals for STEEM as soon as they catch wind of what’s going on. Others might pick sides and use different codes until consensus is reached – which might not happen for years down the road if the Bitcoin Forking experience is anything to go by.
For regular non-technical and non-enthusiast users of steemit.com I doubt they will initially notice much difference post-fork. I’d expect the Tron and Steemit developers to do all the work under the covers to cut Steemit.com over to use the new Tron based token and depending on how close the old STEEM token balances Snapshot is taken to the steemit.com Cut-Over to the TRON token the user balances should be pretty much the same. The Tron gambit is potentially about capturing all those minnow and redfish users with low balances that are still using steemit.com because if they succeed they can kick-start STEEM on TRON with a strong network effect.
Steemit do control a very large stake of STEEM so they are potentially able to use that stake to elect compliant witnesses and/or cause trouble on the original STEEM blockchain. As a result I expect that the threat to fork out the Steemit stake will be realised on the original STEEM blockchain to protect it from such disruption. The “die hard loyalist” witnesses of STEEM will need to do this to make sure that they cannot be ousted and killed off by the new Tron Foundation / Steemit partnership.
Each project and developer group will need to decide which blockchain they are going to support, or whether they are going to try and support both. Obviously it will be a lot of work to support both so I think it will be rare. In the long run, the developer resources of Tron Foundation and Steemit are probably going to run deeper than the community developers so the original STEEM blockchain might struggle to keep pace with developments in the crypto technology space going forward. This might become an issue years down the track, but in the short term the original STEEM blockchain protocol still works and can remain competitive.
Even with a blockchain fork, I still think that it’s possible that SMTs will see the light of day on both blockchains. This is mainly due to the fact that SMTs are already well progressed, are in testing and are open-sourced. Therefore theoretically (even without Steemit) it should be possible for community based developers to take up the challenge and deliver SMTs on the original STEEM blockchain if they can come together. It might end up being a bit of a race to see who can launch SMTs first.
Its common advice in crypto, but especially important at times like these – don’t hold any STEEM related tokens on exchanges while this is playing out. If you want to try and power down and get out then sell your tokens as soon as they hit the exchange. If you want to HODL through the fork then make sure you have your keys backed up and safe so that you can own tokens on both blockchains. The concept of Steem does have a future and is still a valuable proposition, regardless of which blockchain it runs on so keep blogging, keep your friends and followers close and keep your chin up. It will be hard but try not to fall victim to the vitriol of Crypto Tribalism if you can help it.
Are you going to power down or still hold your steem as steem power? ... i am very curios to see the community behaviour in the following days...😉
I hold. Steemit is not the Steem blockchain. Steemit is only a failed dApp on the Steem blockchain. The success of the Steem blockchain is depending on the dApps of the Steem blockchain.
I honestly haven't decided. I am not heavily invested and I've been toying with the idea of powering up more but I might just wait a bit and sleep on it.
Great breakout of the various communities of interest. There is also Steem Engine, DLease, and the like to consider as well. If there IS an airdrop on Tron to match your Steem holdings, how do you verify your account link?
Soooo many questions!!!
Each DApp will have their own decision to make and they might get some funding thrown at them by the Tron Foundation / Steemit partnership to help with the decision. However, considering the impending SMTs and the fact that TRON has it's own smart contract / tokens I don't see Steem Engine being that viable on TRON. DLease will probably depend on whether SP delegation functionality moves over to TRON and it might be one DApp that could more easily support 2 blockchains.
Kind of what I was thinking. The other issue is private delegations. One way to deal with that is to blanket cancel all of them and convert based on the owner’s value, I suppose.
I don't think that is necessary.
A lot of things floating around the bottom of the pail, it will be intresting to see which one surfaces first. I would be willing to bet that a lot of what you just speculated about will indeed fo from opinion to fact. Giod job Bugs!😎🍻
Thanks mate. I'd be willing to bet too but just not sure how best to do so yet :)
This sounds like a very likely scenario and if it plays out. I think for our crypto portfolio this will be a good thing. For the community aspect of steem...that's an entirely different story. We will see
The way I see it they are one and the same. The "true" value of STEEM is its community and network effect, so if you break that up then you hurt its value. In the short term we might have a windfall with some free coins and some market optimism/speculation but we need a strong and united community to maximise long term value.
What if the other front ends such as busy, esteem etc. decide not to switch to tron? Or, is it even possible?
If that happens, how does this whole thing pan out? Steemit.com running on the tron blockchain with the steem-tron token amd the others like busy and esteem etc run as it always has...on the steem blockchain with the original steem..?
That is pretty much exactly how I think it could pan out. It will be up to the other front ends to decide which blockchain to use and some clever (ambitious) devs might even try to do both - a little bit like Steem2wls but maybe a step further to show balances on both chains too.
Who knows. It sure will be interesting to see how it plays out though.
So far they talked about a swap, not a snapshot. And this usually means you send tokens from one chain to receive it on other chain.
Also I don't think it will work as a fork. They will probably implement steem rules on Tron and cut ties with the old chain.
About name and brand, well.... Tron now owns the brand, so if some witness and developers go rogue, I doubt they will be allowed to used the steem brand.
Yes, you are right - I did overlook the token swap plan when I wrote this and that was an oversight on my behalf.
I do think that the token swap is a terrible idea because it forces people to powerdown and choose a chain so it is much more divisive and it'll make it harder for TRON to pick up all those redfish and minnow users because they'll have to do "stuff" to migrate over rather than making the transition relatively seamless.
Maybe they will capitulate on that plan. I will need to catch up on the AMA outcomes that happened while I was asleep! :)
It does sound crazy complicated and the usual run of mill ordinary user like me, not particuarly tech savvy but willing to give it a go- well, we're gonna be lost and paralysed with decisions.
I should add that as far as I am aware, they can own the steemit brand but the steem brand can not be owned so I don't see that as an issue for any rogues.
I really appreciate your breakdown of what's going on tech etc wise, because I'm still wading through trying to figure it all out- but your last lines are what this inexpert yet enthusisatic STeemian is holding onto. I still don't know whether I should powerdown some or not. I think the little pump has got us all happy but the cynic in me isn;t sure it'll last
I'm not sure it will last either, but for regular steemians it's too early to know the best course of action. Everyone will have an opinion but since it takes 13 weeks to powerdown anyway there isn't a lot regular users can do but wait for more info and clarity. In the meantime - STEEM ON!
oh, you missed out on one part. Steemfest :D
I haven't been so I can't really comment. What do you think would happen to Steemfest?
I am just going to sit back and watch the whole thing plays out. Perhaps there will still be Steemfest and justin will throw a fun massive party with loads of entertainments and who knows! But Steemfest is a community organized event, so it may still live.
And keep your enemies closer, right? :D
By the way, the concept of Steem really does have a future, but Steemit does not in my opinion. Nowadays I (and many other people) do not use Steemit. I think that Steemit is a failure. A failed dApp on the Steem blockchain. By selling Steemit, Ned is done what is right and what was necessary/needed to do. If I was Ned, then I would have also sold it.
The value of steemit is basically the value of it's stake IMHO. So it does have some considerable value but the site, the domain and the core business itself....yeh, I'm not sure I'd put much value on that stuff personally.
Guess I will start accumulating some Tron, just some. I got a bad feeling about this. But what the heck, Full speed ahead!
Posted via Steemleo