RE: Ever heard of the Satoshi Cycle? Can it be applied to Steem and Steemit?
It certainly makes sense for Bitcoin. People get excited and get FOMO for sure. For STEEM I feel like this is partially true. When times are good newer users are likely to power up at least some of their earnings but large amounts of new people aren't like new people to Bitcoin who go ahead and buy some Bitcoin to participate. New users at least initially here are often a drain on the system in a way. Of course everyone wants to get some earnings and withdraw it to test that it is real. .......etc.
Knowing whether someone is a drain on the system or not is a hard task. I have taken more money out of the system then I have put in. But I have possibly generated more traffic to the site by writing about different things, putting up YouTube videos about STEEM / STEEMIT.
So people getting involved in STEEM is different than people getting involved in Bitcoin. A lot of people are here to make money by trading in their time and writing ability. With Bitcoin people already traded in their time at their job and then took that money and are just looking for capital appreciation in Bitcoin.
It is a tough thing to measure for sure.