STEEM Price Analysis – June 19, 2017
STEEM prices have shown some resilience in the face of some volatile Bitcoin trading over the past week.
Despite several tests of support at 75K satoshis, the STEEM-BTC price held up and has recently moved upward to hit a wall at 90K satoshis once more. This is the second time in the past week that 90K has stopped an upward push.
The takeaway on the longer-term chart is that the STEEM-BTC price is still in a strong uptrend from the March 2017 lows. That uptrend line (black, chart below) is pointing at 29-30K satoshis. The most recent uptrend line beginning in early May (blue) points at a current target of ~55K satoshis. Over the past two weeks, the STEEM-BTC price has not fallen below 75K (red line), so it has been showing some great strength, despite decreasing volume and momentum that has slightly turned over on the daily chart.
With the price trading mostly sideways over the past week, the 20-day moving average has had time to catch up, but prices are still trading well above the 50-day average. Lows have been trending slightly higher (blue line) and there was a relatively sharp short-term downtrend from recent highs right near 100K satoshis, but today's price action has firmly broken that trend. We may be seeing a pennant-like pattern forming, but may need more time for it to play out.
The STEEM-BTC price has a lot of wiggle-room between current prices and the uptrend line, but it doesn't appear to want to move below 75K in the near-term. With the convincing break of the downtrend line on a spike in volume, we could see prices test 90K again very soon and may not see another test of 75K satoshis in the near-term. We may see a new floor around 79-80K for now. Increasing volume and another push to 90K could help confirm this.
The STEEM-U.S. Dollar price is showing some slightly different results in terms of its recent support/uptrend due to Bitcoin prices. However, the long-term uptrend (black) and near-term uptrend (blue) are unchanged and remain strong. The price has also broken through the most recent downtrend line and has been trading back above $2.00 for the last few days after dipping below in the latter half of last week.
As long as Bitcoin prices don't take another dive, we should see $2.00 serve as fairly strong support for prices overall, which are still in a very bullish trend on long-term charts.
Where can prices go from here?
The STEEM-BTC price has been trading in a fairly narrow range but we may be seeing it currently push that range to the upside. Previously, 75K has been a strong support line, but that may be pushed up to 79-80K for now on any retreats below ~85K.
We can still see 90K as current resistance. If the price were to break through 90K, we could see a green light for another test at 100K satoshis, although there may be some work to do around 94-95K before moving to that larger test.
Continue watching that volume for confirmation of the moves. Recent trends have shown STEEM prices moving up on increased volume, so I would expect that to continue as long as prices remain in their bullish patterns.
Mid- to long-term buyers may want to start averaging in below 85K and possibly increase buying below 79-80K, depending on their risk appetite and goals.
Experienced, short-term traders may be able to trade the range between 85K and 90K with some success. A few quick 5-6% gains may be possible for now. (Not recommended for non-traders!)
If you're trading, always remember:
Never invest or trade what you cannot afford to lose and put tight stop-losses in when prices creep lower towards the support lines.
As always, if you have any critiques or comments about my non-professional analysis, please let me know. If you decide to trade this market, good luck to you!
Disclaimer: I am not a professional adviser and this info should not be used for trading. These are only my interpretations and opinions, and while I would be flattered that you think so highly of my fairly basic analysis, it would not be prudent to use this for transacting/trading with real money.
*Charts are from Poloniex and Coinmarketcap.com. Analysis is current as of approximately 12:45pm EST, June 19, 2017.
Looks like it held the support line like you talked about last week.
There is certainly a lot of wiggle room for the price to go either way - traders may be waiting on the BIP 148 decision on July 1st.
Enjoyed the analysis, keep it up!
@lydon.sipe I totally spaced on the July 1st decision. Thanks for the reminder. In the end, any big catalyst can take our price analysis to the woodshed, but @ats-david has been pretty spot on.
The fact we held the 75k last week when all the coins took a bit of a dip was even more encouraging. Continued consolidation in the current would be a welcomed sign for the longer-term price action.
I could not agree more @scaredycatguide. The influx of new users seems to be creating a steady stream of buying, and it eases the fears of buying up some more Steem on any catalyst news.
I'm with you @ats-david has been putting in the work, and his analysis shows it.
Yes, he's been doing a good job. Plus, I'm biased because his analysis posts and my analysis posts are usually pretty close in opinion :-)
Haha.
Well, there is that. Great minds think alike as they say.
Enjoyed the post ! Useful! Today is an amazing day!
This is ridiculous!!! I'm screaming like a little girl!
I even made $80 on 1 comment recently!
Congratulations! That is fantastic!
This is going up, up and up!!!!
I'm glad someone has been paying attention! Have you been making any trading moves?
Haha, I keep an eye on your thoughts.
I fall in the mid-long term trader like you talked about. Did not make any moves this past time because I wanted to see if the 70-75k support line would hold.
Did you make any?
No. I've been trading a couple of other coins. I might buy the break-outs though. Or if the price falls back to 75 or below.
I'm in the middle of trying out a new strategy overall for my crypto tokens and cashing out STEEM. I want to take out some profits and allocate some of it to other cryptos (like Peerplays or EOS) and also cash out and add to positions in my stock portfolio. We'll see how it goes.
Buying graphene tech looks like a great strategy - I know you know it's history, haha.
I'm in the middle of my EOS due diligence, and man am I becoming excited.
a clear, concise summary even for a non-trader like me and plenty of cautionary advice for those of my ilk. My son trades and I'm tempted, but I'll read your analyses and cautionary notes before taking the plunge. Thank you for such an insightful post and for your sensible approach.
The consolidation of price has been quite nice. Price could even make a run here for the highs, but I would honestly before a little more consolidation as the 20 day MA is just getting caught up.
I am learning with everyone of your post. I believe that we are going to see solid gains from here to the moon. It will be our job as the 1% to balance the insanity of having 5million and not 200,000 users when it comes to pass. This thing is going to explode to a very large profitable machine. I say power up, and watch it go to $10.00 in the next 6 months.
I also try to fit in "Never invest or trade what you cannot afford to lose (...)", but I'm still giving my first baby-steps on the cryptos.
#snake-oil #sorcery #burntehwitch
Thanks for the detailed analysis, if you look at the platform as a whole the future is a rosy one. The price will continue to be bullish in the short term in my opinion. What is your opinion on tommorow's fork and how this will affect price?
I'm not at all excited about the hard fork tomorrow. I think there have been and continue to be too many changes to the economics of the platform and that these changes come in packages that are too large.
I see no point in changing the vote target from 40 to 10, as it doesn't appear to address any problem or flaw in the system or curb any identified abuse. I think the unintended consequences from this change could be far more detrimental to the economics of the platform and the behavior of users than just leaving the vote target alone.
I also don't think that a completely linear algorithm for rewards was necessary, but I'm not as opposed to that change. I have advocated a more linear curve for some time now.
What effect will it have on prices? I can't really say. But if a lot of whales or dolphins don't find it beneficial to be as active as they have been, we could see them dumping a lot of their accumulated STEEM. I happen to think that a lot of larger accounts will simply return to voting with their full weight and crowd out a large portion of the user base, just as we had seen prior to "the experiment." So, the net effect of this "equality" hard fork (which is a BS term if I've ever seen one) will likely be less influence for minnows, not more, even with the 4x voting power scheme.
Reduction from 40 to 10 is very damaging for the little ones .... Too many changes on a platform that is already complex, not a good thing, I agree with you ... @ats-david But I want to be positive! We hope well...
I , of course, have no idea what a Satoshi is? nevertheless have upvoted you , as you obviously do know , having mentioned it 7 times in your Post. Graphs are impressive. ( though not quite as attractive as a Motorcycle or Guitar!) in the end we are all different. Very neatly done Post. Love your Photo.
A satoshi is 0.00000001 Bitcoin. So, if the price is 80K satoshis, that would be 0.0008 Bitcoin.
It's just easier to write 80K than to type out 0.0008 every time.
Thank You for the explanation , almost sorry I asked. Glad I write stories and you do the important stuff. Appreciate your time. followed you so I can learn more.
Great article. I was just making the same observations earlier regarding how the price floor is holding up. Steem still has a huge potential for growth with the new apps being developed.
I've been buying small amounts during the dips, then selling when it goes up and starting the cycle again - my hope is to ride those waves and keep increasing the amount of Steem.
I'm also transferring some of the profits into GOLOS - my hope is that may grow faster than Steem and may catch up which would allow me to do a direct change from GOLOS to Steem.
I get caught out sometimes but I have a contingency plan that I can use some of the ICO money (like Bancor when it releases) to pump into it too.
Still not confident but it is helpful when you do these breakdowns because it makes it easier to understand.
https://twitter.com/Soul_Eater_43/status/876867004581502977
Disclaimer: I am just a bot trying to be helpful.