SSS - Splinterlands Statistics Series #1

Welcome Steemians,

to the first edition of this ongoing series that I call SSS, short for "Splinterlands Statistics Series". In these recurring posts I will share my passion for investments, calculations, tables and statistics in form of my personal investment statistics in Splinterlands.

These statistical results include the following topics and should help get people who are interested in investing / playing Splinterlands, a good basis on what to expect in terms of monetary development:

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• Personal Card Collection Value in regards to the Splinterlands Market Cap.
• Reward Card Values in $ and DEC for farming the daily quest rewards (And how do potions change the outlook of these statistics?)
• Tournament earnings on a daily/weekly and monthly scope.
• Card Rental Statistics

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Dealing with all these different parts of the games' possible income streams,
will allow me to give the reader a true outlook on what can be expected for themselves, when investing similiar amounts.
In order to be able to give reliable results though, consistency is key with these types of projects and so I will track these statistics every single day in my Excel tables and share the results accordingly with you on an ongoing weekly basis.

It is up to you now, to choose which cycle I should use to publish. Would you like me to summarize
all the different topics in one single post, or rather make seperate posts for every topic and do an
in-depth analysis?

I planned to also give interested people the chance to choose the format of information feed.
Whether you like to read or hear me talk about the results, is up to you, because I will provide you with these analysis in written and also video form.

Today we will test the single topic and in-depth analysis for the first edition of Splinterlands Statistics Series

Reward Cards Value With Quest Potion

In this statistical experiment we will test the value of the Quest Potion that you can get on Splinterlands for 2500 DEC (current value in $ = 2,32):

DATE	CARDS RECEIVED	DEC VALUE	DEC IN $	DEC COST/DAY	DEC PROFIT/QUEST	VALUE IN $	PROFIT/DAY IN $	OVERALL PROFIT	DEC PROFIT
05.07.19	11	690	0,6348 $	500	190	0,80 $	0,34 $	-1,96 $	-2310
06.07.19	12	1005	0,9246 $	500	505	1,11 $	0,65 $	-1,31 $	-1805
07.07.19	11	900	0,8280 $	500	400	1,01 $	0,55 $	-0,76 $	-1405
09.07.19	12	2340	2,1528 $	500	1840	8,06 $7	7,60 $	6,84 $	435
10.07.19	13	285	0,26 $	500	-215	0,53 $	0,07 $	6,91 $	220

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Some quick explanations for the table and the underlying calculation:

DEC Value = DEC Value combined of all the cards received in this Quest Reward if they would be burned.
DEC in $ = Value above converted into $ (by the rate of 0.00092 at the time)
DEC Cost/Day = 2500 DEC divided by the 5 seperate Quest Rewards
DEC Profit/Quest = The profit in DEC per Quest Reward
Overall Profit = Cost of potion in $ deducted by the profit per day in $

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What do these numbers tell us?

Well without context and more data, not so much. So let's try to do our best at this point and give the table we see in front of us some context:

We can see that a potion that gives its' user 5 charges of +5 Reward Cards per Quest Reward, costs 2500 DEC. The price for DEC fluctuates mostly between 0.0009 and 0.001 $. This leaves us with a price of roughly 2,30-2,50$ per potion.

The data aboves tells us, how we performed with each day of quest hunting. We now need to compare the value that each newly obtained card has in DEC when it would be burned, or in terms of Dollars if it were to be sold on the market (or held as an asset).

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So was this weeks Quest Hunt using the Potion profitable?

Atleast for this week, we can see a little but clear profit of 220 DEC when burned or a hefty 6,91$ when sold on the market. The main culprit is the statistical outlier of the quest reward described here and the price surge for the Ruler of the Seas, in general.

Because we don't know what would have happened if the quest reward described above wouldn' be there, we will rely on more data of the coming weeks. And this is why it is quite interesting for me to track and have a look at these things. It might be tedious, but if done correctly it can tell you a lot about the development of this as an income/asset etc and help you decide on which tactics and routes to deploy.

So yeah, I hope you liked this preview of the coming content. I would appreciate a comment regarding the style or format of presentation and your personal taste, so that I can cater to as many people as possible :)

Until next time!