2018 NBA Offseason Review: Chicago Bulls

Do you think the Chicago Bulls miss Tom Thibodeau? Since Thibs left in 2014, the Fred Hoiberg-led Bulls have barely gotten above .500 in a season. They ended their 2017 campaign at 27–55, good for 13th in the Eastern Conference. Fred Hoiberg has had a rough start to his NBA career, as his usual — and highly successful — pace and space offense has failed to click with the current Bulls. Seeing as his offense’s success is based on shooters effectively hitting shots due to an ample amount of provided space, it’s understandable that his offensive style has yet to materialize. Hoiberg has had to rely on shooters such as Derrick Rose, Dwyane Wade, Rajon Rondo, Michael Carter-Williams, and Tony Allen to take advantage of open looks. Do you see the problem? There were high hopes for Hoiberg, but after several disappointing seasons, and the departure of Jimmy Butler, expectations had to be tampered. Since then, Chicago has spent the majority of their time in NBA Purgatory: not good enough to make the Playoffs, but not bad enough to tank for a franchise changing player.

The offseason and free agency is based on strengthening your weaknesses, and the Bulls had a lot of weaknesses. The major ones though all focused around shot creation. You would think that there would be a better lineup of shooters for a team that shot 40 percent of their field goals from mid-range. Instead, they shot 35 percent from mid-range and 36 percent from long-range. Too often Chicago’s offense was dictated to them by the defense. The offensive flow slowed down to a halt and, instead of creating shots, the offense often resorted to taking whatever they could get.

So what would make this season a success for the Bulls? John Paxson said the Bulls would “wait and see” in terms of the offseason, holding onto as much money as possible in order to chase big names in the 2019 free agent market. In the meantime though, here are the three goals that the Chicago Bulls should — and did — have going into the offseason.

Goal #1: Get A Cornerstone Big Man in the Draft

Goal #2: Re-sign Zach LaVine to A Team Friendly Deal

Goal #3: Add A Playmaker to Compliment Lauri Markkanen and LaVine

Offseason Additions:

Draft

• Wendell Carter Jr. (7th overall pick, signed to a two-year/$9.64 million contract)
• Chandler Hutchinson (22nd overall pick, signed to a two-year/ $2.43 million contract)
  Free Agency
• Zach LaVine: 4-years/$78 million
• Jabari Parker: 2-years/$40 million
• Rawle Alkins: two-way deal for $75,000+ prorated NBA minimum for any time he is called up to play with the parent club
• Antonio Blakeney: 2-years/$2.93 million contract
• Antonius Cleveland: two-year/$3.33 million contract
• Ryan Arcidiacono: one-year/$1.34 million contract

Subtractions:

• Jerami Grant (Orlando Magic)
• Waived Julyan Stone (Reyer Venezia, Italy)
• Waived Sean Kilpatrick
• Waived Paul Zipser
• Rescinded offer to David Nwaba (Cleveland Cavaliers)

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Drafting Wendell Carter Jr.

The Bulls needed to strike gold in the NBA Draft and, with the 7th overall pick, they took Wendell Carter Jr. out of Duke. This pick was perfect, the Bulls have a weakness at center and Carter Jr. should be able to step right in and take over. Lopez is not awful, in fact there are a few things he does very well; his veteran presence provides a great mentoring role to the young Bulls, his tenacity on the offensive glass is what landed the Bulls the top spot in offensive rebounds per game, his ability to set hard screens and then effectively roll off them is widely underrated, and his rim protection was a bright spot for the Bulls defense. On the flip side though, his footwork is slow, and in a league where more and more big men are coming in aptly prepared to step out and defend wing players, man-to-man switches, and versatile forwards, Lopez is behind the curve.

If Summer League performances are worth their merit, then Carter Jr.’s will be a major impact player for Chicago this coming season. He can block shots, score easily on the block and in the post, he has great footwork, and he is continuing to develop an outside shot. In other words, his strengths are Lopez’s weaknesses.

Case closed.

Shot Blocking: take a look at the first 25 seconds. Interior Scoring: :30–1:00. Footwork: 1:00–1:05. You get the point.

Summer League performances are fickle by nature, the league is aimed at evaluating talent and testing the grit and fit of a player as it relates to NBA-type competition, so they are neither perfect nor always correct. One minute a player may be dazzling the audience, the next they are playing in Europe or China. For all of the uncertainty though, Carter Jr. has shown that he has the potential to be something special, maybe ending up as another cornerstone for the developing Bulls roster.

Grade: A

Carter Jr. was supposed to be the “safe” pick for a big man. He supposedly couldn’t shoot like Jaren Jackson Jr. (Memphis), lacked the length and size of Mohamed Bamba (Orlando), and he didn’t touch the athleticism of DeAndre Ayton (Phoenix) or Marvin Begley III (Sacramento). Those assessments may be true but, as of right now, it looks like Carter Jr. may be a special player, and it looks as though Chicago has found — for the second year in a row — another key franchise player through the draft.

Re-Signing Zach LaVine
One of Chicago’s most important goals this offseason was to re-sign LaVine.

Let me rephrase that: one of Chicago’s most important goals this offseason was to re-sign LaVine to a deal that was beneficial to both player and team. That didn’t work out so well. They can thank the Sacramento Kings for that.

The Kings forced Chicago into their first big move this offseason by offering LaVine a 4-year/$78 million contract. By doing so, they gained the upper hand in signing the restricted free agent away from Chicago. The Bulls had two days to match the offer, and they did, keeping him in the Windy City for the next four years. Is LaVine worth $19.5 million a year? Maybe. It’s tough to say given that last year was not a great benchmark for him (only playing 24 games coming back from a torn ACL). His numbers in those games were decent: 16.7 points, three assists, three rebounds a game, 44 percent from the field, and 37 percent from deep in 28 minutes per game. Not eye-popping stuff, but the Bulls had no choice as they were at risk of losing their starting shooting guard and their primary offensive weapon.

The problem though is that, even when he was healthy in Minnesota, he was nothing more than a scorer. His defense was laughable, his shot creation was minimal, and his only asset was his sheer athleticism (his two NBA Dunk Contest championships prove that).

Consider this: in his three years in Minnesota, the Wolves were in the bottom-five in defensive and in the bottom three in defensive rebounds per game. After he was traded? They jumped up to 19th, and finished this past season at 22nd in Defensive Ratings. Now you can’t blame it all on him, but Andrew Wiggins and Karl-Anthony Towns are also notoriously bad defenders, and that trio never could make it work. The reality is LaVine is a liability on defense. Last season — in which he only played 24 games — he recorded a Defensive Real Plus-Minus of -2.14, ranking him 59th worst among point guards. His Real Plus-Minus was -3.30, good for 87th among point guards and 471st in the league. He was ranked 388th in the league before his ACL tear, so the injury clearly has had very little impact on his defensive abilities. Now in fairness to LaVine even beyond the small sample size, the Bulls as a whole were tanking, and they traded away some great players in order to accomplish that goal. It doesn’t mask the fact that he has never finished a season higher than the bottom 27 players in the NBA in the Defensive Real Plus-Minus category. He is awkward when faced with a pick (video 1), and often fails to keep his man in front of him (video 2).

LaVine gets burned on the pick and resorts to fouling Evan Turner

LaVine Gets Burned by the “quicker” Justice Winslow

Oftentimes it is acceptable to be a bad defender in this league, as long as you are a superb offensive player. James Harden and Steph Curry are excellent examples. They can get away with suspect defense from time to time because they top out on the offensive RPM scale. LaVine is not a superb offensive player though; he is a slightly above average player. He is streaky from long range, unreliable from mid-range, and unsettlingly inefficient overall. Last season he saw the highest usage rate of his career at 29.5 percent and made use of that by attempting 9.7 two-pointers and 5.1 three-pointers a game. In terms of two-point attempts, his streakiness was on full display; he shot 55 percent on shots within three feet, 23 percent on shots between three and 10 feet, 38 percent between 10 and 16 feet, and 25 percent on between 16 feet and three-point range.

LaVine chooses to go iso and misses the contested lay-up

Clean handoff by Markkanen leading to the missed 10' Jumper by LaVine

His true shooting percentage of 49.9 percent puts him 407th in the league — although, to be fair, it’s not the most telling stat as some of the top names are Anthony Brown, David Stockton, Adreian Payne, and Ante Zizic who all profit off of a small sample size (the first recognizable name is Steph Curry at 16th). It’s obvious that LaVine struggled last season, and it’s unfair to grade him on such a small sample size, but the fact remains that he is going to be paid as if he is the №1 option for Chicago. With his staggering inefficiency coupled with the rise of Markkanen, the likelihood of him breaking through is unlikely. He could easily regress into the one-sided player we saw in Minnesota, or worse, he could suffer another devastating injury. That very fear led to his contract containing a clause that protects Chicago financially if LaVine goes down again.

The key to re-signing LaVine was based on Paxson’s “wait-and-see” notion. The hope was to keep him on a financially responsible contract so that 2019 would reap some rewards; a goal that they failed to achieve. They overpaid and it might come back to bite them come next summer.

Grade: C

LaVine will be under a lot of scrutiny based solely on his contract. If he delivers, great. If not, then Chicago played themselves by not locking him down immediately. All eyes will be on LaVine this coming season, and they can thank the Kings for that as well.

Signing Jabari Parker
The Milwaukee Bucks rescinded their qualifying offer to Parker in early July, thus removing his “restricted” tag and making him an unrestricted free-agent. For the Bulls — much like the re-signing of LaVine — this deal primarily depends on health. $40 million for two-years may seem like a lot for a player who has suffered two ACL tears in three years, but the Bulls protected themselves by making the second year of the deal a team option, thereby lowering the risk if Parker goes down or doesn’t fit within the team.

Yes this move was a gamble, an expensive one at that. Parker’s contract accounts for 19.5% of the cap space for the Bulls and puts the team at a payroll of $102.57 million (the luxury tax starts at $119.266 million) while also making him the highest paid Bull for the season. In other words, this move was The move for Chicago as the cost alone ensures that they will not be making any more headline grabbing moves this offseason.

The first problem with Parker is the conundrum he causes in the rotation. In his career so far, he has played an average of 74% of his time at power forward. Last season marked the most time he spent at the small forward position (40% of minutes played) and, despite only playing in 31 games, it was not a natural fit for him. You can’t blame the Bucks for opting for Giannis Antetokounmpo over Parker, but the point still remains that Parker will be put in a slot he is not as comfortable with. With Chicago’s investment in Markkanen though, what’s the alternative? Parker has shown signs of being an elite scorer, and he has drawn comparisons to the likes of Carmelo Anthony and Paul Pierce, but his hesitancy to shoot the long ball (3.9 attempts per 36 minutes) will cause spacing issues with Markkanen, who averaged 7.1 attempts per 36 minutes. It’s 2018 though, and in today’s NBA it’s not uncommon to see strange lineups. If Chicago wants Parker to work, then Hoiberg may have to get creative.

The next — and bigger — issue for Parker is his defense. In the 2014 NBA Draft, the Cleveland Cavaliers had it narrowed down between Andrew Wiggins and Parker. Wiggins, they noted, showed an enthusiastic commitment to defense in his year at Kansas. Parker on the other hand, showed almost no interest in defense in his lone season at Duke. The Cavaliers noted that, despite his offensive ability, his lack of defense was worrying, and it was on full display in his team workout, seemingly showing no intensity or energy towards the defensive end. Wiggins became Cleveland’s front-runner, and that led to Parker going second in that draft. Furthermore, Parker’s latest comments on the importance of defense have not helped his cause.

“Well, I don’t know I just stick to my strengths, look at everybody in the league. They don’t pay players to play defense. I’m not gonna say that I won’t, but to say that’s a weakness is like saying that’s everybody’s weakness.”

Parker and LaVine are eerily similar in what they bring to the team as well. Both are talented scorers, but both are also shaky defenders. The overlap caused by these two being on the floor at the same time — and that is the plan as of now — may reap benefits on the offensive end, but it could nullify everything on the defensive side.

Grade: C+ (potential for a B-)

At 23-years old, Parker still has an immense upside, but he will be replacing David Nwaba who was a very good defender. He will also be moving Denzel Valentine — and in turn Chandler Hutchinson — down on the depth chart. He will be moved to a position he is not extremely comfortable at and, when combined with LaVine, that could spell doom on the defensive end. However, the contract was negotiated well, with the second year being a team option, and he has shown signs of defensive capability (see the series against Boston for proof). The risk may be worth it to add another capable scoring option for the Bulls.

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The Bulls are in a better position than they were last year, and that’s what matters right? Hoiberg has shown that he can run offenses with a collection of creative schemes and consistent spacing. The key ingredient he was missing last season was reliable shooters. This coming season will fix that problem and hopefully allow the young Bulls to showcase their youth, revitalize some careers that were impacted by injury, and in the end, compete in a weakened Eastern Conference.

All stats courtesy of Spotrac.