Luck VS Judgement - A Trixie Challenge - Day 19

marcusbraeburn (60)in #sports • 6 years ago

Percentages baby, that’s what I’m talking about. The percentages are where the money is all at. On the trixie’s the percentage chance of a win is extremely small, however the rewards for that win will be enormous. Take my selections today as an example, if all three of my horses win the return on £2 will be in the region of £150, that’s a whopping 7500% ROI. Of course, it won’t happen very often but it has happened before and it almost certainly will again.

However, trixies are for fun, neither @happyaslarry or myself have serious expectations of making a regular income in this challenge. No, people who make money on betting do so at the opposite end of the spectrum. The goose we are looking for has a high strike rate and the golden egg is small incremental profits. Day after day, week after week, let the small returns add up. Five percent of a thousand is £50, five percent of two thousand is £100.

I am currently preparing for a crack at making this ‘small-returns’ process a reality. The idea is to start small and increase the bank by way of returning small but regular daily profits. In preparation for this I deposited £40 into an account on Friday lunchtime. By the end of the first day I was up to £42.50. On Saturday I gave it all back but remained ever so slightly in the green. Yesterday though, things fell into place. I made £2.37 trading an IPL match in-play and then later made another couple of quid on the day’s horse racing.

The result of all this was a profit of £4.53. Nothing much to right home about on the face of it, however, that’s an 11% return in some infinitely scalable markets. Trixies may be fun but the future lies elsewhere.

Here’s @happyaslarry with an interesting take on the weeks selections:

”Well today is my brother Francis’s birthday, and on Friday he’s getting married. So I’m going to make all my selections linked to that if I can this week.
Le Frank, an obvious choice. The Road Home is what I’ll take to get to Liverpool. And Le Frank has sands in his address being near the beach, so a chance to get a Royal in with Royal Sands couldn’t be missed. Surely today is the day that Luck shines through.”

Luck