Rules Changes Could Send Two Sports in Different Directions
The Looneyville Mudpuppies have announced that they will not tackle any more on kickoff returns in their American football games. And when they play baseball, they’ll put a runner on second base once the game goes into extra innings. These are two radical rules changes that take each of these sports in different directions.
The Mudpuppies do not exist (this team is fictional), but both of these changes are being considered strongly by their respective professional leagues. Let’s look at them more closely to see what impacts they might have. Personally, I don’t really like either proposal, but one has a solid rationale while the other does not.
Eliminating Kickoff Returns in the NFL
First of all, it seems strange to discuss football in March. March is made for basketball madness and for baseball’s spring training. The National Football League (NFL) should take a vacation. Instead, it is making headlines by threatening its franchises with the prospect of eliminating kickoff returns.
The kickoff and return are parts of the game in both the NFL and college football. Top: Creative Commons via Flickr.com by Ryan L. Broyles @ N05. Below: Creative Commons via Flickr.com by Acaben.
Kickoff returns, which come after points are scored, are some of the most dynamic and unpredictable plays in American football. For those outside the United States, think of Rugby Sevens and it’s basically that same frenetic play, repeated several times per game (after a team scores). Kickoff returns are also a killing field for head injuries, which are threatening the viability of football at the high school and college level in coming years. Nearly all former NFL players tested had brain disease which likely resulted from their time in the game.
The Point examines head injuries in football. Crash-test dummy alert.
To be frank, the NFL has no choice but to address head injuries. And it could cut down on the number of concussions dramatically and immediately with one simple change: eliminate the kickoff return play. Players get 5 times more concussions on kickoff returns than any other type of play. The NFL already has allowed teams to move further forward (to the 25 yard line) when there is a touchback (the kickoff ball being kicked into the end zone); it may move the ball further forward still to bribe teams from not having to put kicked off balls into the field of play at all.
This week, Mike Murphy, president of the Green Bay Packers and a key member of the NFL’s competition committee, recently said that teams will need to clean up their act on kickoffs or else the NFL will eliminate kickoffs altogether. So what does this needed behavior change involve? Should teams play flag football and not have any physical contact on kickoffs? Softening the play seems unlikely. It appears much more likely that the league would do what Murphy suggests and simply eliminate kickoffs altogether.
What would be lost? Traditionally, there are three areas of football: offense, defense, and special teams. Special teams players excel at the weird plays like kickoff and punt returns. If they play well, their team may have the ball in a better field position once their offensive unit gets back on the field. Eliminating the kickoff return would do away with one of the funnest, most dynamic, unpredictable, and enjoyable plays in the game. And it would put a lot players out of a job; roster sizes could be reduced if the kickoff goes extinct.
A highlight reel of NFL kickoff returns.
But it also would eliminate (by far) the largest source of head injuries in football. And if they cannot successfully ‘dumb down’ the kickoff return in any way that justifies keeping it, then maybe it is more important to protect players than to keep this type of play.
Increasing MLB Scoring Opportunities in Extra Innings
Meanwhile, baseball continues its own struggle, not against head injuries but against sheer boredom. Its main target remains the length of games that go on too long for most fans to maintain interest. The average game now takes three hours and five minutes (3:05) to play, which is the longest it has ever been. Major League Baseball (MLB) has instituted some new rules to speed up the pace of games, such as limiting the number of mound visits to the pitcher (a new rule this season).
Bored yet? Source: Footballscoop.com.
MLB has another idea that it is testing out in the minor leagues this season. When a game is tied after nine innings (which is the regulation length of games), it goes into what is called “extra innings”. These begin with the 10th Inning and basically keep on going until one side has the lead at the end of an inning. While it is rare for games to go for too much longer, the record was a 25 inning game, and it is not uncommon to have 11 or 12 inning games.
So baseball’s new idea is to put a runner on second base in extra innings. When there is a runner on second base (halfway to scoring) with no outs, it improves the chance of that team scoring to more than 60%. But the inning cannot end anyway until the second team has had the same opportunity to bat and it also would have the head start of the runner on second base.
Worse yet, if you know the game well enough, you can play out the rest of this scenario in your head. With a runner on second base, only the best hitters would swing for a hit. Most hitters would lay down a sacrifice bunt instead to move the runner over to third base in exchange for an out at first base. Why? Because a runner at third with one out is better than a runner at second with no outs. It probably adds another 5-10% probability of the team scoring a run. With a runner at third, either a hit, long fly ball, well placed bunt, or even a groundout, not to mention a wild pitch or passed ball, would get the run home.
Continue playing this inning in your head. What happens next? Runner on third with one out means that the pitching team would probably walk the next hitter intentionally. That would put runners on first and third with one out, setting up the possibility of a double play at second and first bases, so a ground ball could end the inning without any runs scoring.
So basically, this change of starting an extra inning with a runner on second makes for rather a dull inning. Sacrifice bunts, intentional walks…Yes, it sets up the likelihood of a run, but it also sets up an inning of small ball unless the team’s best hitters happen to come up during that inning. Most fans don’t tune in for small ball; they want fireworks. The fans who like small ball are already watching.
This proposed change does not make baseball any better. And I’m not convinced that extra innings are a problem for fans. Less than 4% of games even go into the 10th inning at all. The pace of play is the bigger problem. And as far as the time length of a game, most of that extra time is coming from late inning pitching changes. Put some limit on those and you’ll shave off more than a couple of minutes per game.
Fans who are watching a game that goes deep to extra innings realize they are seeing something special. The longer it goes, the more it ages like a good wine. Give me a 15 or 18 inning game where a team runs out of hitters and has to use a pitcher to pinch hit. Or it runs out of bullpen pitchers and has to use a starter in relief. Now those are baseball games.
Here is a 16-inning gem from 2014 between the Chicago Cubs and Pittsburgh Pirates, the longest in Pittsburgh history.
Extra innings are not the problem that ails baseball. If MLB is serious about making games go faster, then address the pace of play or put some limits on all of the late inning pitching changes. Those grind the game to a halt and I’m willing to bet that’s when baseball loses most fans.
Mascot race in Cleveland. Creative Commons from Wikimedia by Erik Drost.
Baseball is Still Nibbling, While Football is Addressing a Serious Issue
Football has no choice but to address head injuries. Curtailing or eliminating kickoff returns may be inevitable, given that most head injuries result from that type of play. While kickoff returns are fun to watch, the game can survive just fine without them. Baseball, on the other hand, is not squarely addressing the problems that are turning off most fans from watching the games: pace of play and the never-ending pitching changes. This extra inning second base runner does nothing for me or for most fans. Traditionalists do not like more radical changes than this, but traditionalists also will not have a sport to watch in 10-20 years if fans other than them have stopped watching. Football is getting serious; baseball should as well.
Sources:
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000923684/article/nfl-poised-to-explore-possible-elimination-of-kickoffs
http://www.sportingnews.com/nfl/news/nfl-rules-player-safety-kickoffs-eliminate-roger-goodell-changes-owners-meeting/zvq2upcwk96h1bo47ifqjt2gr
http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/ct-spt-minor-league-baseball-extra-innings-rule-20180314-story.html
https://www.fangraphs.com/community/lets-strategize-under-the-potential-extra-inning-rule/
https://www.quora.com/What-percent-of-baseball-games-reach-each-inning
Top image is public domain.
I love football. Out of all of the sports I watch it is my favorite. I also played football in high school. I can say without a single doubt that my kids will not play football. I played before all of the concussion awareness and concussion protocol. We called them "dings" and no big deal. A source of pride was "playing dinged up" and viewed as a badge of honor. Looking back there was a very noticeable decline in my cognitive ability which was reflected in my school work during football season.
I also think that the NFL won't exist in 20 years. At least the sport we know as american football today. If it survives it will be a starkly different game than what we know it know. I just don't see how it can survive in it's current state given all of the information and research we have. I recently listened to Arian Foster's interview on Joe Rogan's podcast. He provides some insights on the health of pro football players. He said nearly every player gets some form of surgery after the season. He also said that playing through injuries on pain killers happens every game and it's impossible to go through a football career without surgeries or injuries. The head trauma is just something we recently found out about. The fact that out of all of the brains of football players they studied nearly all of them have signs of CTE is a very shocking statistic. An almost 100% correlation between an action (playing football) and a disease (CTE). It is similar to the tobacco giants when the link between cancer and tobacco use was discovered. You can't really have a reliable product that increases sales every year and continues to grow when it kills those who are involved or consume the product. Something has to give here.
Yes, I agree. The future game will not resemble what we have today. I remember when Barry Sanders retired and they asked him why (because he was still productive). He said it was like getting in a car accident once a week during the season for his whole career.
It's even worse now. I mean think about it. The players are getting bigger and faster. You are consistently seeing guys that are over 6'5" and 300 pounds running 4.7 40s. The players are just getting not only bigger and faster but the size isn't just dead weight or fat. The size is also muscle and power. That 6'7" 320 pound lineman is not just slow and fat but rather equivalent to a mix of a power lifter and a sprinter. These guys are agile. Their speed also makes it more dangerous. They are not only bigger and stronger but they can get up to their max sprint speed quicker meaning harder hits can occur in a shorter period of time as well as their agility making it harder to avoid them.
It's also sort of scary seeing the major discrepancies in some of the body builds between positions themselves. Look at someone like DeSean Jackson. He is about 5'10" and 175 lbs. Compare that to one of the better linebackers in 2017, Dont'a Hightower. Hightower is 6'3" and 265 lbs. He has almost a half of a foot in height and almost 100 lbs on Jackson. I can't imagine the level of impact that would create if Jackson was to get drilled taking a pass over the middle. It's even more scary when you see that someone line Damon Harrison for the Giants is 6'3" and 341 lbs. Now it's not exactly that likely a wide receiver would get a hard hit laid on them by a defensive tackle but the fact still remains that these smaller guys are playing against people almost double their size. That can run nearly as fast as they can. I would imagine that in these cases an impact at full speed by both of these players would be almost more than a car accident.
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Football is very beneficial for physical fitness.
Thanks for sharing , i didnt even know this game is quite dangerous, as dangerous as boxing.
Baseball is actually an interesting game to me. Its for smart guyz. Though I watch it like a comedy show. Its really entertaining to me.
Bad movies are fun to watch sometimes, too. Funny without them knowing they're funny. You can turn down the volume and use your own voice. :)
Hahahahahahah seriously I can relate with that. Lol
😂. you are absolutely right. But sports rules must be constant to increase curiosity.
Damn I have always loved the kick off returns , actually I am not a big fan of American football and Rugby but one part in the game I enjoy watching is tge kickoff return, cancelling or removing this part of the game wouldn't be nice at all. .It's gonna affect a whole lot of things and they will only find out how important this part of the game is when the try removing it and so I will ask them to go ahead and see. I have a big feeling they will bring it back after they have seen the effect...I for one won't watch American football again as my best part has been striken off.
It is a fun part of the game. With people hurtling towards one another at full speed, though, some head injuries are understandable.
I might disagree with some of the rules that might be changed in NFL.. but I do believe kick off returns are no longer necessary in the game. It's hard to see a kickoff returned in a game nowadays, players no longer thrive on kick returns. And to the fans, they aren't that exciting to watch anymore. We need to see more real football with more skills in passing, rushing, sacks, forced turn-overs. And besides, kickoff returns cause a lot of injuries that are bad and unneeded.
The reasoning behind the rule change is obvious. Kickoffs are more dangerous than regular plays. since it involves teams sprinting towards each other from opposite directions for 30 or 40 yards, then colliding into each other. The NFL claims to have data saying kickoffs are more dangerous than other plays, and outside sources have also found the injury rate on kickoffs is much higher than the injury rate on any other type of play. There has also been a study that shows an abnormally high proportion of severe injuries to high school football players occur on kickoffs.
There are many ways to make the NFL safer. Eliminating one of the most exciting parts of the game should not be one of them.
There may be other ways to make the game safer, but your first paragraph there is fairly convincing for the counter-argument that kickoffs are dangerous for head injuries. I don't like eliminating them, but that would be one sure way to make the game safer.
Everything has got pro as well as con, we have to judge are pros greater than cons or cons greater than pros.
I consider baseball a purely American game.So the US should be proud of this!Well, injuries happen in any sport..Any athlete sacrifices himself for the sake of achievements!Good post @donkeypong !)
Presently, rugby isn't to everyone's taste. It's dull, trudging and the laws are unimaginable, say the pessimists, who balance it negatively with the streaming, generally clear round of football. What's more, in some ways those faultfinders are correct. Yet, they are overlooking the main issue that rugby is wear at its purest on the grounds that, as a general rule, all game is exhausting. It's an ancestral ceremony, not a tasteful exercise, and no game shows improvement over rugby.
This is an interesting read. I could agree with you about the dynamicity that permeates Football over the years. The issue of head injuries also occur in football, especially when goalkeepers accidentally hit their head against the goal post or another player on the field. This however is rare. It will be great to see that loved ones are not at the verge of suffering for head injuries for playing Baseball. I agree that the NFL should eliminate the Kickoff to prevent the preventable(head injury).
Thank you for this great post.
I agree with you on football. The kickoff is not worth the trouble. I say "bring back leather helmets" lol. I've become interested in Rugby recently. Heck of a game and the hits are hard but the injuries are less severe. Baseball is in trouble and it is the MLB's fault. They need to learn to promote the game better and get more kids involved on a massive scale in the United States. Its a great game and the game doesn't have to change, just the messaging and promotion to young people.
That's interesting that rugby has fewer injuries.
Good morning @donnkeypong.
Madpuppies 😂😂. To be honest without your disclaimer that the team doesn't exist, I would have been thinking about the names some teams do bear, if it isn't purely to scare their opponents or something.
Well, if I could recall fully, you once talked about the radical changes needed in American football some times ago on your blog.
Well, my own opinion is that if the elimination of the kickoffs reduces the health problems such as concussion, then it's fine by me. Better to have healthy people than sacrifice it for entertainment which might result in am emergency while in the process.
OK, I'll have to admit it, I'm not smart then, when it comes to baseball, I'm always like what is really going on, now I realize is for the smart ones. Oh, poor me, get up Israel, you've got to check your cranium. But the length of the game. 3 hours plus, that's much, requires strength to go through it.
Anyways, I'm thankful for the opportunity to learn something new today. Keep being amazing, Cheers.
@donkeypong, That would be very interesting and well compared blog. I'm pretty much updated and I'm big fan of NFL series. I'm not interested baseball. But football wanna really own struggle and very active game more than baseball.
Exactly I believe the same. Then less some productivity of NFL series via Kickof returns. But sometimes they want to less head injuries. However I trust NFL and American football league massive crowd in future. Absolutely best parts of sport selection.