(11/17) EUROPE: UEFA Nations Leagues A, B, C, D - Previews & Picks

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Portugal at Italy - International UEFA Nations - League A

Pick: (1 unit) Portugal +½

This match marks the four-time world champions’ last UEFA Nations League (UNL) fixture of 2018/19, an encounter that Italy must win, and then pray for a Portuguese slip-up when their opponents face already-relegated Poland on November 20. The visitors, however, just meed a draw in this one for UNL progression. The Italians have failed to impress at home this calendar year, with three 1-1 draws on Italian turf following, their failure to qualify for the World Cup. Furthermore, the fact that all of Italy’s home goals in that period have arrived after the break hints at a reluctance to put teams to the sword early on. That said, Italy are unbeaten in 11 home games (W4, D7) with all four victories being accompanied by a clean sheet. Portugal, meanwhile, come into this match after two successive away wins, both of which saw them score three goals. Though lethal in the final third, the visitors have conceded at least once in four of their last five games away from home. In the last four games within that category, Portugal have also conceded at least once in the 60-90 minute zone. However, they still have a potential psychological advantage, having beaten Italy in their last two H2H encounters (2015 and 2018) after previously going winless in ten (1980-2008).

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Sweden at Turkey - International UEFA Nations - League B

Pick: (1 unit) Turkey PK
Pick: (1 unit) Sweden @ Turkey OVER 2½

It’s crunch time for Turkey and Sweden with each nation facing relegation to League C if they lose this encounter. However with a game in hand, the Scandinavians can still clinch promotion if they claim all three points in Istanbul and then beat Russia in their final UEFA Nations League (UNL) group match. Turkey can mostly blame a porous defense for the looming threat of relegation after losing two of three games so far and conceding exactly two goals in all three fixtures (W1, L2). In fact, the hosts have now conceded in every half of UNL football they’ve played, and to make matters worse, have registered just two clean sheets in their last ten matches overall (W3, D4, L3). Sweden are without a win in four matches since their World Cup exit to England (D2, L2) and sit bottom of League B, Group 2, with just a single point (D1, L1), but have played one less game. The visitors have now failed to score in three of their last five fixtures, and perhaps unsurprisingly then, have seen only three of their last ten outings end with over 2.5 match goals scored.
However in six competitive H2H encounters since 1994/95, four have ended with over 2.5 match goals and five with both teams scoring, including Turkey’s 3-2 reverse fixture victory in September.

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Scotland at Albania - International UEFA Nations - League C

Pick: (1 unit) Scotland PK
Pick: (1 unit) Scotland @ Albania UNDER 2

Scotland journey to Shkodër knowing they can clinch promotion if they pick up a positive result here and then beat Israel in their following match. This is Albania’s final UEFA Nations League (UNL) group game and defeat for the hosts would relegate them to League D. Albania come into this having won two of their last five competitive home matches (W2, L3), including a 1-0 victory over Israel in their only UNL home game to date. Used to seeing deciding goals, Albania fans last witnessed a home draw in a competitive fixture back in October 2014, with six of the last ten games in that category being decided by a one-goal margin (W4, L6). A disappointing defeat in Israel denied Scotland the top spot, in what was their sixth loss this year (W2, L6 - including friendlies). On foreign soil it doesn’t look much better, with six losses in the Scots’ last ten (W3, D1, L6), with both teams scoring in only three of those. There is hope for the visitors however, with Scotland teams managing to hit the net in eight successive competitive fixtures and scoring two or more goals in five of them. Their 2-0 win over Albania in the reverse UNL encounter (September 2018) also falls within that sequence.

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Faroe Islands at Azerbaijan - International UEFA Nations - League D

Pick: (2 unit) Azerbaijan -1

A third victory for Azerbaijan over the Faroe Islands in as many matches will make their next game against Kosovo a winner-takes-promotion match. While the visitors remain with an outside chance of UEFA Nations League (UNL) promotion, making this a must-win for both sides. Unbeaten in the tournament so far (W1, D3), the hosts’ last competitive loss was back in October 2017. Although their record over their last ten matches is poor (W2, D3, L5). Azerbaijan have failed to score in three of their last ten competitive matches, hitting the back of the net more than once in only two of those ten. At the other end, they have kept just two clean sheets in those ten games, conceding an average of 1.70 goals per match during that period. The Faroe Islands are now winless in three (D1, L2) after starting their UNL campaign with a win. That remains one of just two victories in their last ten competitive matches (W2, D3, L5). The visitors struggle to score goals and have averaged 0.60 team goals per match over their last ten fixtures, while conceding 1.50 per game in the process. The Faroe Islands’ last clean sheet was back in October 2017.

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Kosovo at Malta - International UEFA Nations - League D

Pick: (2 units) Kosovo -1

For the first time in history, Malta host Kosovo in a competitive match for this top-vs-bottom clash on match day. Five of the UEFA Nations League (UNL). Winless (D2, L2), without a UNL clean sheet, and beaten 3-1 in the reverse fixture between these sides, Malta (#183) are the third-lowest European team in the current FIFA rankings. The only apparent redeeming factor is that Malta have not failed to score in a UNL game so far. Going beyond the UNL, Malta’s winless run (including friendlies) is, in-fact, 14 matches long, with the Maltese also last winning a competitive match in June 2013. They have conceded in all of those 14 matches, while additionally shipping the first goal in eight of their last ten. Kosovo, by contrast, sit at the summit of the group, and stand on the verge of promotion to League C, with eight points (W2, D2). Given their hosts’ dire form, combined with no threat of relegation, there is nothing to suggest that Malta will be troublesome. With a record of: W6, D2, from their last eight fixtures, the visitors will clinch promotion by full-time if they win this one and Azerbaijan fail to do the same against the Faroe Islands.