CDC Confirms modRNA VE is Abysmal after 4 months
The CDC’s latest PR observational study attempt to save the VE narrative, which has been restricted to severe disease and hospitalization reduction, incidentally confirms that “robust protection” of modRNA therapy advertised against hospitalization has about a 4 month lifespan if that.
Durability of Original Monovalent modRNA
While I usually just add studies like this to my prior answer, Quora has unfortunately restricted how many I can summarize in one answer due to the character limit so this one had to be a standalone post.
I’ve been ignoring most new observational research as they’re usually set 2–3 years back and/or compare the therapy to unvaccinated with no prior infection or treatment other than standard of care, thus making them anachronistic and irrelevant since seroprevalence of anti-nucleocapsid nabs is far lower in their study time frame than it is now. This CDC one of two monovalent doses for recipients under 18 fit the bill but they actually measured VE a year out and the supposed protection is pretty anemic after 4 months. Mean VE against hospitalization is estimated at 25% between 4 months to 364 days out with the lower limit at - 9%. The anytime within the previous year stipulation seemed to improve the mean VE against hospitalization to 38% with a lower limit of 15% which to an immunocompetent child or adolescent with no comorbidities, sufficient Vitamin D serum levels and/or nucleocapsid antibodies and memory cells from prior omicron infection(s) is completely meaningless and not worth the several fold higher relative risk of cardiomyopathy.
A recent CDC vaccine effectiveness study (n = 7,434) that enrolled children who received medical care for acute respiratory illnesses, between 6 months and 4 years of age, through the New Vaccine Surveillance Network, found that 28.5% (n = 1,816) of unvaccinated children (n = 6,337) in the study required supplemental oxygen compared to 35.23% (n = 99) of children who received only one vaccine dose (n = 281) and 37.5% (n = 291) of children vaccinated with at least two doses (n = 776). 4.5% (n = 289) of unvaccinated children in the study received intensive care compared to 4.3% (n = 12) of children who received only one vaccine dose and 5.9% (n = 46) of children who received two or more vaccine doses. Additionally, 1.8% (n = 115) of unvaccinated children required a CPAP compared to 1.4% (n = 4) of children who received only one vaccine dose and 2.45% (n = 19) of children who received 2 or more vaccine doses. The study also finds that a higher proportion of vaccinated children received inpatient care (55%) compared to unvaccinated children (44%).