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RE: ScaredyCatGuide to Real Estate - Three Reasons I Love Rental Properties!
It has to. It's so crazy to be in it here because people literally think it will never happen. That's a key characteristic of a bubble though - most people have no idea what's about to happen.
I've invested pretty heavily in gold miners here. I think that will be a good contrarian play.
I just took a look at the miners ETF (GDX) vs SPY (S&P 500) for 2008 through 2011, sadly there wasn't much divergence. Miners went down hard to, bounce maybe a couple months sooner than the market but the rally was similar.
I really thought I'd see a divergence. I like miners as the contrarian/flight to safety play. Maybe physical gold in Aussie dollar could be a play too.
True, and I've considered that. The miners are definitely a bet on inflation and a weaker Aussie dollar, not deflation, which is what we saw in the 2008 USA housing crisis, at least until QE kicked in. I would expect the RBA and government here to respond right away with stimulus if the banks and housing market tank. I tend to think the housing market here will be fine until some shock from overseas. If I'm right, that would also lead to more economic stimulus and inflation worldwide, driving up the price of gold. Time will tell.