RE: Prediction: when Bitconnect ponzi scheme will implode
Hi Cryptick, thank you for your comment. I read all your articles, even commented on some. I agree with you about market cap, although did not explain very well. My article is long enough, I should have split it like you :)
I tried to say that BCC price is manipulated, 1M cap is unreal because all coins are held by Bitconnect. One might think that 1 Billion dollars was invested with Bitconnect, which is not even close.
I don't think that transaction has to be occurred to be on block-chain. Bitconnect can easily give you a wallet address which does not exist, if you transfer funds they will get burned and still they can keep track of your deposit. Lets say I transfer 1BCC to address ABC, that address dont exist on blockchain but they will count ad seposit cause they can link the transaction I did, wallet I have. Coins get burn, higher prices.
Alsi I think 7584 addresses I think is very unreal. I think way more people invested with them. I think there should be at leas 50k people, at least. What do you think?
Well I saw a you tube video where one guy in America had 2,300 people beneath him. I did math on the screen for investments total I saw on a video which is where I get my ~1,400 per investor. (I think they were different screen shots) (People in Vietnam and Indonesia where this thing started are generally poorer, so it likely got off to a slow start.) I don't really trust any numbers form the company. I think the internet traffic is faked like everything else. There has been less than 1,000 downloads of the android app. With about 15 reviews on both iphone and android. This would be indicative of a small number. The company has not collapse yet, since it pays out 1% a day it has to be growing 1 % a day. We know they are burning tokens to raise the BCC token price. If you look at 1% of the market cap, verses the day before and how many people would need to buy each day (at 1,400 a piece) and sum from the begining you get about 6,154 people. This is the amount that would need to have joined since the beginning to keep a 1% growth rate alive. While I value your thoughts, and wish I had more concrete numbers I keep coming back to the 7,000 subscriber number. It may be because most of my assumptions are based on the idea that that number is real, but that is my guess. I have even simulated when they run out of money in spreadsheet. It is when the lock up period (180 days for big investors 300 for little) ends. Based on the big USA push. I see this thing going till then (End of January) based on starting to get popular in late July. Of course if growth continues at 1% day untill end of January 7,400 will become 24,000! So that is by best guess!
The truth is, we don't have real data to have a better feeling when they will collapse. Blockchain is very manipulated. I have a lot of friends and family and they never invest on anything before asking me first what I think. I have a good track record and they want a second opinion. Thing is many people asked me about Bitconnect. That is what make me think that Bitconnect is more popular than 7000 investors. There are at least 1000 different youtube channels promoting bitconnect. I don't think that more than 1% of investors promote it on youtube. I might be wrong, but I just can't comprehend that there are 7k subscribers. Should be way more. I did not know that they have IOS and Android app.
One thing I think we agree, when it comes to ponzi schemes, Bitconnect is a masterpiece.
It is a masterpiece of a Ponzi scheme. Your point on the number of You Tube Channels is an interesting point, that could be the result of one person making a lot of money and then a bunch of people following him. I appreciate your thoughts on this, I haven't had many good conversations to debate these points. I certainly can be wrong here, am I am guessing. I shouldn't expect anyone else to trust my numbers more than me, when I don't trust any of the numbers I read about myself. I will be interested to know if you find more concrete numbers. Great discussion.