Thoughts on my Sunday and the coming days of tennis
After the Canberra raiders bets from my last post I staked a total of 3473.76 and returned 4057.70. ( 583.94 P&L off of these series of bets)
Much of that was a heavy bet on Boston Celtics at home to overturn the Cavs. ( P&L 535.66) which goes to show the other betting activity was only marginally profitable. Obviously I am grateful for the positive variance but not losing the run of myself.
I'll probably bet against Jack Sock to win tomorrow, he has not won back to back games in 2018 yet, going out in the first or second round. Probably will be a small bet as the odds are low. I'm not really thinking of anything else in advance, I'll try to watch some basketball in play later this week and rugby league at the weekend.
If Nishikori gets taken to a deciding set in matches this week and looks fit, no visible signs of injury, I'll back Nishikori to win the match at 1-1 in sets if the odds are above 1.40 . Nishikori is the greatest player of all time at winning deciding sets.
*If you follow any of my bets, be comfortable that bets lose, know that my word is not gospel and please only bet with money you don't need for something else. If you think you are betting too much or spending too much time/money gambling, get help https://www.begambleaware.org/
Update: Jack Sock lost in straight sets
Good tennis bets! Do you follow the players / matches or just rely on stats?
I try to follow patterns, like if players have tendencies to do certain things in certain situations and if the odds give value vs the expected likelihood of a trend continuing. I watch some matches in play but in the past haven't been able to read it well, so having something statistical to use or test has been a bit more successful.
And patterns in how the odds move as well, and how the odds movements can repeat themselves, that's more for betfair/matchbook/smarkets trading though. I have an ebook I bought on that - my discord is my location tag, if you want more info on what that book is and where to get it.
It's sort of funny that the above correct "predictions" won but I didn't place bets on them. Jack Sock won, I have no excuse but the Nishikori match was in play while I was at work, so obviously can't really bet while at work, except lunch time or something on my phone.
Hopefully will get to watch Kei Nishikori today and see if a similar opportunity arises.
I guess overall I am a fan of certain teams in certain sports, so would be more aware of when they are playing. Like Jack Sock in tennis or Clare Hurling in Ireland (Irish Sport). But overall I am indifferent about what I bet on, I think it is easier to be more rational when you don't want a team to win based on liking the team, you can be more objective on it.
Would you follow certain teams for the sports you bet on and/or watch?
That's interesting about trends and tendencies. Completely agree about betting when there's value in the streak continuing.
I try to just rely on the stats blindly so as not to cloud the judgement and hopefully to have some form of 'repeatability'. But having said that, i think there's a lot of value in being able to handicap with a bottom's approach especially when taking into account things like motivation, injuries, resting players, weather etc. I could never do it though lol.