Waiting for the Return of Rupiah

Rupiah exchange rate since last time perched on the range of Rp 13,700 per US dollar. The movement of Garuda currency also tend to be dynamic, but in general in approximately the past month, remain at that level.

Bloomberg data to the close of trading Wednesday (18/4/2018) shows, the rupiah is in the position of Rp 13.776 per US dollar. The figure is down 10 points or 0.07 percent compared to the position at the opening of trade, which is Rp 13.773 per US dollar.

On daily average, rupiah moves in the range of Rp 13,767 to Rp 13,778 per US dollar. As for the close of trading the day before, the rupiah perched on the position of Rp 13,766 per US dollar.

Over the past year, the rupiah has moved in the range of Rp 13,126 to Rp 13,817 per US dollar. A number of economists and analysts see the weakening of the rupiah more due to external factors.

At the beginning of last month, for example, the rupiah weakened to break the level of Rp 13,800 per US dollar. The decline in the rupiah exchange rate was due to sentiment from the US central bank's testimony that the US economy continues to improve.

The Fed also hinted at the Fed Fund Rate's rate hike gradually this year. The Fed is predicted to raise its benchmark interest rate by 4 times in 2018.

The weakening of the rupiah was forced to make Indonesia's foreign reserves slump. Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves at the end of March 2018 was recorded at 126 billion US dollars, down compared to the previous month's position of 128.06 billion US dollars.

The decline in foreign exchange reserves in March 2018 was mainly influenced by the use of foreign exchange for servicing of official external debt. Foreign exchange reserves are also used to stabilize the rupiah exchange rate amid rising global financial market uncertainty.

Bank Indonesian (BI) also assess, the weakening of the rupiah due to various external conditions. This weakness is in line with currency movements in the region, mainly due to the increasing uncertainty of global financial markets.

BI Deputy Governor Dody Budi Waluyo revealed, the rupiah has not been strengthened due to external conditions that still exist. External conditions include expectations of an increase in the Fed Fund Rate reference rate.

However, the central bank views, the rupiah tends to be stable. "Surely what must be seen is the continued weakening of the rupiah is stuck," said Dody.

Nevertheless, the central bank believes the rupiah exchange rate will soon strengthen. One of them is the positive sentiment of the upgraded Sovereign Credit Rating Indonesia by the international rating agency Moody's Investor Service.

Last week, Moody's upgraded Indonesia's debt rating from Baa3's positive outlook to a stable outlook Baa2. This may encourage confidence in the outlook for the national economy.

Rupiah is predicted to be strengthened again at the end of second quarter 2018. This is due to several factors that will encourage positive sentiment in rupiah.

The strengthening of the rupiah at the end of the second quarter of this year due to coincide also when the country's debt is included in the basket of Bloomberg Global Index.

"The potential for strengthening may be small by this quarter, but maybe towards the end of the quarter," explained Head of BI Monetary Management Department Doddy Zulverdi.