We are still not in a recession. Stats don't lie.

All six economic indicators are now updated to their most recent month. Here is what they look like over the last six months.

We clearly aren't in a recession- most if not all of these indicators would be significantly down if we were.

And we clearly weren't in a recession during 2022 either.

If we can keep making progress on inflation we might actually get that soft landing that seemed unlikely a year ago.

The probability we were in a recession in May was a whopping 0.6% (out of 100%). Lol. This model relies on the economic indicators NBER uses to determine a recession.