RE: Analyzing the crypto market with Python
I really like your recreation of the monkey experiment. It shows the enormous deviation in returns in such a short period of time. (And the recent bull trend, every portfolio has positive returns?!)
I'm not a fan of market timing, especially with backtesting. At first glance, it always seems that a 'golden rule' or 'perfect trading strategy' exists. But when you backtest on a different time period, it suddenly doesn't work. However, I'm often tempted to try to time the market, so every once in a while I like to go back to Vanguards investing guide: https://personal.vanguard.com/us/insights/investingtruths/investing-truth-about-emotion
If you play around with the interactive chart you can see that small changes have a big effect and that overall, it's hard to beat the market.
Don't think that I didn't like your project though! Love it, just don't like market timing. ;)
I think that's the beauty in price point smoothing (aka buying incrementally over time), and finding low cost options with baskets of securities
Another reason why letting the Winklevii get their ETF would have been a helpful investment vehicle
Thank you for that Vanguard link, a great read right there.