You express your hypothesis well.

My experiences combine to suggest that "free will" can vary over time. Thirst, hunger, fatigue, fascination, fear, and other states can temporarily reduce autonomy and self-actualization versus habit and various types of influence. Many of us occasionally achieve decisive "moments of truth" when we are far more capable of exercising "free will" than usual.

Sometimes "free will" is illusory, when we are not conscious of the influences affecting our "choices." Some people reject this fact because they imagine praising or blaming individuals would become illogical if it were accepted. However, when "free will" is illusory, humans continue to praise and blame individuals whenever so influenced, partly because we temporarily lack the freedom to refrain, and partly because it remains logical to influence others by means of praise and blame.

Anyway, "free will" is not always illusory. Believers in "conditional immortality," notably G.I. Gurdjieff, have recommended strategies for maximizing our capacity to have moments of willpower and freedom. Lucid dreaming exercises are one such strategy.

Does the freedom aspect of self-actualization derive from randomness? Many great thinkers would answer Yes, and there is clearly some truth to this. I believe that we also can gain freedom from conscious intention, but only when most of consciousness is recruited, instead of when merely shallow, partial selves make their pathetic attempts to usurp the role of the whole.