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RE: An inside look at the prediction market protocol Augur
I'm very excited about that project. The consensus based market resolution system is something that will be used in a lot of decentralized applications if successful.
Do you know how they deal with outcomes that are controlled by certain individuals? For instance, what would happen if you created a market along the lines of "Will @ntomaino post on Steemit on December 31st 2016?". I assume no one would really want to bet on it, but surely in some other markets it would be hard to know that a single party has perfect information as we do here.
I don't believe there's anything preventing a market maker from creating such a market. I think that market forces will keep people from betting on such a market though, meaning that it won't be profitable for folks to engage in that kind of activity.
I foresee market making mostly being done by large, well known accounts that have lots of Reputation in the long-run.