Federal Reserve FOMC announcement due January 31 - preview

We expect no change in the policy rate at the upcoming 30-31 January FOMC meeting and no material changes or surprises in the post-meeting statement. Incoming data during the intermeeting period has been largely positive, affirming continued growth above potential. December's employment report indicated that the economy added more than enough jobs to absorb new labor market entrants and the unemployment rate remained at 4.1%. Inflation on a 12-month basis continued to run below the FOMC's target of 2% while December's core CPI reading indicated some firming of trend inflation towards the Committee's objective. Therefore, we do not think the Committee will make any major changes to the first paragraph on the current assessment of recent economic developments. That said, as the impact from inclement weather last summer wanes, the Committee may drop the language on hurricanes.