Is Polymarket correct?

According to Polymarket, it really seems as if Donald Trump will win the elections in the United States. Now I am curious about how correct Polymarket is and whether it is covering the average opinion of the people, or if all sorts of voters try to manipulate the results with shadowtrading or other techniques? As I last checked, it was a 65% chance of Trump victory while Kamala had a 35% chance. Those are quite big differences, so I am curious to see what will happen here.

It also seems to me as if Bitcoin is pricing in a Trump victory and that is what might also cause the current Bitcoin run. I am curious when Bitcoin will take the step and just run past the previous all time high and get into new waters where it has never been before (price discovery mode).

What do yo uthink?