Schism Brewing for Democrats in 2020?
As the number of Democratic politicians vying to become their party's presidential candidate for 2020 continues to grow, the divide between the "old guard" and the "new guard" is becoming more evident.
Some people may say that the old Democratic way of doing things consisted of making it appear as if they were for the little guy while caring little for what actually happened to their constituents as long as they got their vote. These same folks would see the "new guard" as being genuinely devoted to their progressive principles and empathetic to the perceived plight of their constituency while being foolishly naive in their political ideology and plans for governance .
Reaction to Green New Deal Provides Peek at What's to Come
For the old guard's leadership the presence of this potential "new guard" is difficult, if not impossible, to swallow. Speaker Pelosi demonstrated this quite clearly in the way that she received the "Green New Deal." Pelosi essentially dismissed it by stating that "we welcome the enthusiasm" of those who brought it forth — AKA Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, the current "star" of the more progressive fringe of the party.
This can also create difficulties for those vying for the 2020 slot. There will be those who will feel the need to blindly embrace proposals from the more progressive elements of the party in order to appear "in tune" with the younger demographic from which those elements derive a large amount of support.
The Green New Deal also provided examples of this. Four of those contending for their party's nomination co-sponsored the bill. Harris, Warren, Booker, and Gillibrand are the four in case you're wondering. Two other declared candidates, Klobuchar and Buttigieg, publicly supported the bill.
Among those yet to announce their candidacy — but who are still viewed as potential candidates — Bernie Sanders and Beto O'Rourke proclaimed their support for the Green New Deal in whole or in concept.
The only ones who have not come out with an official position on the Green New Deal are those who adhere to a more pragmatic style of politics or who are members of the "old guard" themselves. You can throw Joe Biden, Julian Castro, and John Delaney into that basket.
The Green New Deal may be seen as a bold statement by the "new guard" announcing their presence on the stage. A way to demonstrate that they are no longer "understudies" but real players. Likewise, the "old guard," with its entrenched ways and pragmatism of convenience, is not about to give way. In terms of what fuels a traditional political machine, they have the controls. Yes, we're talking about money.
2020 and Beyond
It is possible that the fate of this "new guard" of Democrats will turn out to be very similar to that of the "Tea Party" Republicans. In other words, they will arrive with great enthusiasm and ideological zeal only to slowly "come around" to the "established" way of doing things.
Then again, it is also possible that this "new guard" will have the sustainability to bring to a head a divide — a schism. One which will result in a paradigm shift in the leadership and structuring of the Democratic party. In the more extreme of possibilities it may even result in the spinoff of a progressive and openly socialist party out of the Democrats.
The 2020 presidential election will have a strong bearing on what pans out. Going down a more progressive path does not seem like the best way for the Democrats to recapture the White House. However, their traditional formula of superficial identity politics, corporatism, and large government proposals may face highly motivated headwinds from their "new guard" who do want solidly progressive — some would say, socialist — initiatives.
If the Democrats do lose in 2020, there may be enough lingering blame to fuel a schism.
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