Steemit Exclusive: Why I Currently Believe Trump Will Win in 2020
As the midterms approach I am getting back into the swing of politics, something I attempted to distance myself from at least partially in 2017 especially. I don't want to become a one-trick pony of political predictions.
Anyways, as may be evident to some people here, my growth into a larger Internet presence was mostly predicated on being right about the 2016 election. I have told multiple people now that the GOP, here in the USA, has an advantage going into the midterms, but I decided to post an (extremely rough and preliminary) political map explaining the trends I see in politics today. I am going to bullet-point a few states and defend my position as follows:
New Hampshire: With Sanders fans livid at the DNC and no indicator that the democrats will field a progressive, New Hampshire, which only went narrowly for Clinton in 2018, may well swing red.
Maine: Maine having a bit of red due to its odd election practices is a fluke. I believe it will revert to leaning blue for the democrats.
North Carolina: This state narrowly voted Trump but I see it getting more blue and if Trump wins it it will be because he has exceeded all expectations- even from those of us who expect him to carry 2020.
Minnesota: Trumps' rust belt popularity is growing due to a good economy. He will grab Minnesota if it continues.
Nevada: Latent libertarian sentiment and a good economy might throw some Vegas votes Trumps' way and give him Nevada.
This map is subject to change and almost certainly does not represent the final result. Until at least six months after the midterms it's almost not even worth predicting the next election.
I think all this will change at some point. I do agree with everything you say on your stream, but I feel there is another factor that you may not take into consideration. I listen to economist named Peter Schiff. I absolutely love what he has to say. Smart guy, but he has a very dismal outlook on the economy, and doesn't have the best of opinion of Trump, Obama, or any other recent president for that matter. He talks a lot about a coming collapse in the economy becoming more and more urgently needed as we continue to debase our currency, and push ourselves into a corner. When we become unable to sell our debt to foreign nations, the FED will have to pick up the slack. He points out what happens when those mature and the FED and the Treasury are competing to both sell bonds. Exploding interests rates, and an American people that are shocked and surprised, and in my opinion, blamed on Trump. This happening during Trump's term IMHO paves the way for a socialist to enter office quite easily.
This is not an impossible scenario, I hope it doesn't happen like that. Right now, many people are on a 'Trump high', especially next tax season when the returns are going to be big. Money is always a huge motivator. It's likely that the economy will continue to improve for a few years, which will put the FED in more and more of a pinch. They may get desperate and initiate another depression, like they did back in th '30's, hoping to get another FDR (socialist) type in office, like you said.
For now, we are seeing the backlash of 8 years of Obama and it looks as if even the Democrats have determined someone among them is going to have to be the scapegoat. They're already putting Comey under the bus, who will be next? When the swamp is drained, we're going to find a lot of bodies. Not political enemies, but children. That is when the outrage will really begin. We're already finding out that political corruption is not just the mismanagement of money, but very wicked immoral criminal behavior that will be shocking to the average American. This is happening in both parties, but one of the hubs is the Clinton Foundation.
I'm shocked that the "Schiff" scenario hasn't already happened. I don't know how long the current situation can be maintained. @ironshield
Not to disagree, because your points seem valid...
I think that there are still a few potential game changers that can arise between now and then, namely, whatever happens with the mueller investigation and the IG report.
I have a feeling Trump will just win because people are sick and tired of neo liberals. For fucks sake just having someone utter the phrase "the gender wage gap" makes me roll my eyes so fucking hard they fall back into my skull.
Generation Z is going to be interesting as fuck when it comes to this. They don't seem to be leftists when I talk to them. Though I usually only talk to them on the internet.
It will be funny to watch them rebel against their progressive teachers and parents.
NH and ME both suffer from a constant influx of Democrats.
I think Cuomo will lose here in NYS. The only true "holds" centrist libs have is in NYC and Albany county.
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I tend to think that this is pretty accurate, unless something really drastic happens in the meantime. I'm pretty confident that MI will go Trump, and WI and OH. The majority of the 'silent majority' is growing, even while the 'noisy minority' gets louder and louder. @ironshield
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