Here's Decision Desk's Senate forecast.

Currently the model expects Republicans to win the Senate at 70% with 52 seats to 48 seats. The model forecasts a Senate tie at 15%.

As for the House, the model expects Republicans to hold the House at 56% probability, 219 seats to 216 seats. Or only a two seat majority.

As for the Presidency, the model expects Harris to win the presidency at 56%.

So razor thin races with everything at stake.

Given race correlations, this is why I have a dim view of Larry Hogan's candidacy this cycle.

This isn't just a polling model fwiw.

I'm hopeful, but the Senate map is quite tough. And recent elections have had lower split ticket voting than in the past for the Senate. So Dems in red states are working in strong headwinds.

The off year elections and abortion measures are certainly reasons to be optimistic. But off year elections generally have a different electoral makeup than presidential cycles. And abortion measures do have a lot of split ticket voting.