Argentina: Can It Ever Regain Its Emerging Markets Status?
Re-emerging markets?
Anyone who knows me well will know that my two favourite countries are Poland and Argentina. Poland is an emerging market with 5% GDP now, but the little brother of Argentina has lacked behind in recent years.
For a long time Argentina was borrowing heavily from the global bond markets to finance its debt. The country has defaulted twice in 2001 and again in 2014. This deadlock was recently resolved in March 2016 when nearly $5 billion was paid to Elliot Managment and others. Even the name sounds like some kind of capitalistic vulture.
Following this escapade, the country somehow managed to raise nearly $20 billion in foreign debt in 2016, and has raised bonds for the first time in 15 years.
Macroeconomic basics
Whilst the overseas money starts to trickle in from investors we cannot ignore the macroeconomic signals for Argentina. Inflation continues to be rampant, and was heading towards 41% annually in 2016. The Central Bank key interest rate is currently 24.75%. Try making a mortgage payment on that one!
All this puts downwards pressure on their beloved Peso currency, and this could lead to further signs of economic weakness.
Argentina does have a chance to join the emerging markets like Poland, and the MSCI will make a review of Argentina's emerging market status in June 2017. I hope for the sake of @jlufer and his family that the answer is yes.
The signs for emerging markets status for Argentina are rosy. Macroeconomics are not so great, but the country has done away with capital controls and the MSCI should take into account their economic development sustainability model as well. I predict they will obtain this status in June and join their bigger brother Poland. That would be my one wish for 2017.
Love and best wishes to @jlufer and all his family in Argentina.
When I see that they talk about my country, something inside me is generated.
I am Argentine, I am descended from Poles and I am friend of @jlufer. So, @mindhunter you're going to love me! LOL
I think I know a lot about Argentina because I keep on reporting. And you're not wrong at all. I'll give you some information. Money laundering was recently made by goverment, and amounted to 120 billion dollars (the second in world history). This is good but bad in that if our own entrepreneurs do not trust in my country, how we pretend that foreigners do.
We have the potentil but politics completely ruin us. Corruption at all institutional levels is disastrous. Politicians are corrupt, justice is corrupt, police are corrupt. The Argentine himself is corrupt. We have such a high rate of interest that if you do not work in black someone, as a company you melt.
Many times I have considered leaving this country, because I do not think that neither my children nor grandchildren see it flourish. I love Argentina, but I love its land, its rivers and its seas. Its natural beauty. Not the people in most cases.
Sorry but I try to be honest, and at the same time it hurts.
Have a nice day my friend!
Thanks @tincho. That is why I love blockchain. It can make governments more transparent. Dubai wants all the government on blockchain by 2020. Steemit is a new start for all of us. I can see the good it could do in Argentina. If I could I would come there and live and have Argentine wife. Poland and Argentina are in my heart. I fight for those people. Love and respect to you for staying there my friend @tincho - take care and Steem on. Please spread the blockchain gospel in Argentina - IT IS COMING READY OR NOT!! @mindhunter
P.S. Hola to @jlufer if your reading this :)
Those are two pretty solid favourites. I'd like them both to rise to become prominent players in civilization creation. The others we have are struggling right now. I'd like to be able to hear, once again, 'wealthy as an Argentine', and Poland seems like it should have broken out long ago, if it weren't for socialism, national or otherwise.
Taiwan is also another emerging market I'm watching ... as well as a Nigeria ... more on Nigeria later @lifeworship ;)
Taiwan is a little too close to China for my taste. I'd like to see them prosper, but I don't think I'd want to be there just now.
Also got my eye on little Myanmar and Cambodia.
I think the weather there may conflict with me.
Yeah, its hot in the Summer there ... just like Poland ... it's forecast to be 29C/85F when I arrive there next month!
I lived in Florida for a while. I'd much rather semi-arid to alpine, than subtropical humid
Anywhere in Arizona or New Mexico is just fine for me :)
I don´t now about Poland, but Argentina has a great potential to be an economically strong country. It has a big food industry and some oil reserves. However, as long as his corruption levels stay high, the country won´t develop no matter how much it can export.
Very true @ropaga - the roots of corruption are very deep here. Only government reforms over time can change all that for the better. Argentina deserves better :)
How about the Philippines? it was up in Q1.
Correct @immarojas - I've also got my eyes on Cambodia and Myanmar ;)
Will you invest in the Philippines?
If I was a billionaire. Yes! I love the people, the food and Cebu. For sure :)
you don't need to be a billionaire to invest there...i thought westerners are flocking to invest in Asia?
I'm more into Poland right now. I've a lot invested there in various growth funds. 5% GDP this year ... one of the highest in the Euro-zone. Nice :)
that's a lot compared in UK. good on you :)
If I had more money, Argentina would be its second home ;)
Loved this article @mindhunter
Thank you V. Thank you :)
P.S. My next article will be ... 'The Double Edged Sword That Is The Story Of Nigeria's Oil Dependence.'
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I'll let Argentina know!
Thank you very much dear friend @mindhunter for these wishes, we look forward to the recovery of our country.
Argentina has the potential to be the number one food provider in the world. For this to happen, it must change the mentality of our rulers and have long-term state policies, restore people's trust, and eradicate corruption and theft. National Heritage.
Thank you so much for these beautiful words dear friend.
It's all in the rulers my friend. I hope blockchain can help overcome these corrupt obstacles of government and you have full accountability. My thoughts are with Argentina every other day ... as well as Scotland too of course! Love to all your family. Stay wealthy @jlufer :)