Nuclear War Between North Korea and America Likely or Unlikely

in #politics • 7 years ago (edited)

The media has been rambling that the world is on the verge of a nuclear war between North Korea and America .Let's find out if a nuclear war between America and North Korea is likely or not .Nuclear weapons serve as a deterrent. Any country with Nuclear weapons have a strong deterrent factor against countries that are not nuclear armed and a mutually assured destruction (MAD) doctrine is applied against a hostile nation that has a nuclear arsenal. Any of nuclear capable countries using their nukes would provoke a response from other nuclear powers and non nuclear powers because nuclear war means total annihilation. Nuclear weapons are the ultimate deterrent but they are mostly used for rhetorical purposes as everyone is aware of the impact a nuclear war would have on the entire globe and atmosphere. The detonation of a few modern day nuclear warheads could upset the entire environment bringing about an phenomena called NUCLEAR WINTER

America vs North Korea

Media causes hysteria argue that Trump will use nuclear weapons against North Korea to avert North Korea from further developing it's nuclear arsenal(an arsenal of almost 10 nuclear warheads ) but the war could quickly escalate as both Chinese and Russian (nuclear armed nations)don't want a nuclear war on their borders. But in reality Neither America nor China or Russia want to go to war over North Korea. China is trying to revive or develop the new silk road that goes through Eurasia. America on the other hand wants to reform its economy ravaged by decades of wars.
If one looks at Trump's election campaign then one could find Trump being elected on the basis of his claims of improving the American economy and not starting yet another war. A North Korean and American nuclear war would not look good for Trump as it could easily cause internal disputes in America. Such a war won't be fought against a Flimsy North Korean(10 warheads) nuclear arsenal but would also involve China(270 nuclear warheads) and Russia(7000 nuclear warheads).Both China and Russia have the nukes ,the delivery capabilities and production capabilities and a capability to maintain a wartime economy and also second strike capability. The reason that China and Russia would side with North Korea is that both the countries don't want America in their immediate vicinity.

Survival of the Kim regime

North Korean elite believe that for the regime to survive they must be militarily strong. North Korea
without its nukes is more than capable of leveling South Korea. It's artillery systems are numerous and various and its armaments are numerous and of varying types as well. North Korea has a large array of self-propelled artillery systems and towed artillery but they are all aging and are of older types. They have domestic capabilities to produce such systems. It's air force is also aging. It has the largest submarine fleet in the world ,a total of 78 submarines. their sub marines are aging but capable .They have midget and medium sized sub marines that even sank a South Korean Naval vessel and was undetected. Its tank fleet is also aging and in needs of repairs. so with an army of aging systems and some capable systems a need for nuclear capabilities arises. Kim regime believe that Gaddafi(libyan leader) giving up his nuclear program, Saddam(iraqi leader) not having a nuclear program to fruition resulted in the invasion of both these countries .Hence the Kim regime believe that a nuclear deterrent is required. But even this is not a simple task .Making nuclear capable warheads is one thing but having the delivery capability(missiles system, airplanes, sub marine launch systems, ground based systems) is another thing. North Korea has capable enough missiles to launch a Nuclear warhead on Seoul but not the American mainland. The North Korean inter-continental ballistic missile just serves rhetorical purpose rather than a military purpose. North Korea does have an inter-continental ballistic missile but it's not an accurate one as extensive tests are required for such a missile. Secondly North Korea has stated repeatedly that it will only strike USA if USA strikes North Korea first. The strike on American bases around the Korean Peninsula are more likely than a strike on American mainland . Kim regime is aware that a strike against USA is a suicidal move but having Nukes for rhetorical purposes still acts a strong and sure deterrent against any meddling from USA and even China. With or without a nuclear capable missile North Korea can still threaten South Korea with its Nuclear arsenal by placing a nuclear weapon in a tunnel underneath South Korea.

New silk road

While China on the other hand supports North Korea monetarily , politically and militarily but even China is backing away from North Korea reducing exports and imposing sanctions a clear signal that it does not want a nuclear war but china still wants to maneuver politically and economically. China is aiming at developing a new silk route in Eurasia and also want to expand economically in Africa. America on the other hand won't use its nukes on Korea because a Chinese and Russian Nuclear respond would become imminent.China and Russia dont want any American backed government in North Korea as it would be in close proximity to both China and Russia and would also likely station american military units as well.

Conclusion

A nuclear war is not happening as long as all 3 entities are satisfied in the Korean Peninsula. China and Russia are satisfied that North Korean regime does not fall and unite with south Korea a USA backed government, North Korea is satisfied as long as the Kim regime survives and has a detterent that allows it to be independently function without American, Russian or Chinese intervention or meddling and America is satisfied as long as it can cripple the Kim regime. Although North Korea is a nuclear state now.This cant be altered but what USA can do is to limit North Korea from further developing its nuclear arsenal and nuclear launch capable systems. To achieve this America's best option is to impose international sanctions on Kim regime and to convince China to stop supporting Kim regime. China wont completely stop its support for Kim regime but it can exert pressure on Kim regime. As long as this fragile balance is maintained in the Korean Peninsula a Nuclear war wont take place

Further resources

http://www.therichest.com/rich-list/the-biggest/the-10-largest-submarine-fleets-in-the-world/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_winter

https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/Nuclearweaponswhohaswhat


#america #northkorea #china #russia
7 years ago in #politics by
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