2018's Blue Wave: The Senate, Part 1

Republicans Jumping Ship Before 2018 Rogue Blue Wave

Part 1: Senate Seats.

(Original posting: http://adifferentangle.blog/2018/04/15/2018s-blue-wave )

The 2018 mid-term elections are in November, and with a total so far of 63 (depending on the source, some say as low as 55) seats open for grabs, it is on track to be the biggest shift in politics since 1992 when 65 representatives left their seats. That year holds the record for the amount of voluntary retirements from the U.S. Congress by a large range, but this year's election could easily surpass that. Beyond that, all numbers seem to indicate that one party is set to rake in the majority of those seats. The Democrats.

The initial break down of just who is leaving heavily favors the blue party. With 27 house representatives declining to seek re-election this year from the Republican side, 4 of their strongest and most senior senators, and 13 others seeking higher offices a total of 44 Republicans are set to leave office as of today. The Democrats however only number 19 in all; 10 representatives, 1 senator, and 8 seeking higher offices. These numbers have a very likely chance of becoming higher before November though in this currently chaotic political climate. This would be scary enough for the Republicans if it was their only threat, but the polls from the last few months have swung in a similarly record breaking shift into the blue and now threaten a big portion of some seats Republicans have held securely for decades.

List of Senators leaving office:

Jeff Flake, Arizona

Bob Corker, Tennessee

Orrin Hatch, Utah

Thad Cochran, Mississippi

Al Franken, Minnesota

The two seats to really watch though out of all, are the senators seats from Tennessee and Arizona. Both Republican seats in safely red states are polling as wins currently for the Democratic challengers. The implications of this, should they flip, are drastic. Should the Republicans lose one of the two seats, they lose their majority in the senate which currently sits at 51 Republicans, 47 Democrats and 2 Independents who vote with the Democrats. Should they lose both these seats, which seems likely at this point, they lose being able to use Mike Pence as the tie breaking vote too, effectively locking the Republicans down from being able to pass anything.

Tennessee has been a red state since the early 60's with comfortable wins for its Republican candidates for senate. Just in recent years during the general presidential elections Tennessee voted heavy Republican. They voted overwhelmingly for Trump in 2016 with a 26.2 point margin. In 2012 they also favored the Republican candidate, Mitt Romney (Mittens as I like to call him), by 20.4 points, and McCain in 08 by 15 points. The two most recent senator elections, Lamar Alexander in 2014 and Bob Corker in 2012, saw healthy wins as well with 30.1 and 34.5 point gaps respectively. These particular numbers would seem to show a very slim chance of a Democratic senator from Tennessee any time soon, expect the current polls say otherwise.

Phil Bredesen (D) is currently challenging Marsha Blackburn (R) for soon to be Bob Corker's vacant seat. Bredesen isn't just challenging her, he has a 10 point lead on her. Back in mid December (days before recently announced retiring Paul Ryan said on air he wasn't going to retire after passing his tax reform) Gravis released a poll of 563 registered voters and Bredesen was shown to be on top by 2 points. Full disclosure, the margin of error was +/- 4 so it could more be called a tie. Just recently however, on March 29th Middle Tennessee State University released a poll of 600 registered voters with Bredesen ahead by 10 points (+/-4). Taking Bob Corker's election margin of +34.5, Bredesen has closed an over 40 point gap which is astonishing.

Blackburn has had a lot of momentum behind her coming into this race from her previous, where she won her election for Tennessee district 7 representative by 48.7 points. At least one poll has shown her ahead by near double digits as well. Two days after Gravis released its poll showing Bredesen ahead by 2 a pro Trump super PAC named "The Committee To Defend The President" released their own showing Blackburn up by 9. Decide what you will about that, though it appears to have been nothing more than a knee jerk crafted retort. The DSCC (Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee) also had an interesting episode of jockeying, releasing a poll they conducted in late October 2017 in late December saying Bredesen lead by 5 after a slight drop in Bredesen's numbers to push them a bit higher. Polls are not immune to propaganda unfortunately, and all numbers in this article (unless otherwise noted) come from RealClearPolitics.Com and BallotPedia.com for full disclosure and those interested in looking these numbers up for yourself.

The other highly contested state, Arizona, sees the Republican senator Jeff Flake bowing out after only one term. He leaves a seat that has been difficult to hold with lower margins than it's other firmly held seat by senator John Mccain, who has also had flagging numbers lately. Flake's seat has a wide field of both Republican and Democratic nominee's vying for the nomination to go to the general election. The polls at this time seem to suggest Democratic candidate Kyrsten Sinema will face off in the general election against one of two Republican opponents, Kelli Ward and Martha McSally. Neither of which are polling ahead of Sinema.

Sinema as of October 26th leads Ward by 7 points according to HighGround. With a sample of 500 Sinema held only 34% of the vote, but Ward lagged behind at 27%. 39% said other, not undecided. Possible causes for this could be Jeff Flake still had not announced his resignation by this point, or that some of the smaller candidates were getting some recognition. This race has a Justice Democrat, Deedra Abboud, in it who have been making progress in the recent primaries in other areas of the country. That still leaves a lot of wiggle room, but Sinema does similarly well against McSally much more recently. As of March 16th Sinema is 5 points ahead of Mcsally according to Public Policy Polling, with 46% of the vote compared to Mcsally's 41 and 13 undecided (547 sample size with a +/-4 margin with only those two names on the poll with undecided.)

Arizona is historically red with both seats and the majority of districts elected from the right. Should Sinema flip Corker's seat, it will be another first in 30 years (1988 Dennis Deconcini, elected 3 terms, retired) for the Democrats and another strong measuring point showing the shift to the left. Arizona could repeat this process in the 2022 elections as well with John McCain.

Senator McCain, still in the middle of his 6th term in the senate, has had strong support through his career and for good reason. Well known war hero and POW of Vietnam, he carried his strength over to congress in 1982 as a district representative and became the Arizona state senator five years later in 87 with an easy victory of 60.47%. In 92 when he was up for his first senatorial re -election he did well again with a 55.82%, showing a small drop but nothing to worry about. Indeed, in 98 that showed through when his election numbers jumped to 68.74%. 2004 would show his best numbers yet, and some of the highest election numbers for a single senator on record with an awesome 76.74% victory, even despite having failed to secure the Republican nomination for president in 2000 against George W. Bush and later in 08 a landslide loss for the presidential election against Barack Obama. The aftermath in 2010 seemed to have taken a significant toll on McCain's numbers with a sharp drop to 24.7 points, and again in 2016 with only a 12.9 point lead on his challenger. Keeping with these numbers, should McCain choose to run again 2022 (which seems unlikely due to his health) he could be in for an actual fight like he has yet to see in his congressional career.

Not only the Republicans have been feeling the heat from the tectonic unsteady political and geopolitical situations recently. A Democratic senator, Al Franken, is stepping down as well amidst yet another sexual misconduct scandal. Franken stepped down in January and his seat was filled by Tina Smith (formerly the Lt. Governor of Minnesota before appointed to fill the seat), who support for currently is average to say the best. Karin Housley, the Republican hopeful, isn't holding anything back against Smith in an attempt to swing the blue state purple, slinging tweets like acid against Smith. The waters are still muddy and hard to divine who will come out on top for this seat, there is yet to even be hard polling, but the majority of predictors assume it will stay blue. Even a single seat in this year's election is crucial to both sides, and will be fought over dramatically and bitterly. Democrats though are harder pressed here to hold the seat, less the rest of the elections go poorly.

Just one seat is enough to swing this current senate. Sitting at 51 Republicans, 47 Democrats, and 2 Independents who vote Democratic, one seat shifts the whole balance. Tennessee, currently, looks ready to make that shift with Bredesen. That could negate the Republican super majority, forcing them to have V.P. Mike Pence cast the tie breaking vote constantly. Should Arizona follow suit with Sinema the Republican majority could be broken entirely, and give Democrats the majority in the vote (providing they can muster the Independents support which seems likely), if not the actual Democrat to Republican majority instead being a straight tie. Minnesota's seat must remain with the Democrats for this to take place though. The other two Republicans deciding to bow out after more than forty years each, Orrin Hatch of Utah and Thad Cochran of Mississipi, are two of the pillars of Republican strength and strategy. Their seats are expected to remain thoroughly under Republican control.

These are not the only potential battle grounds though this year. Democrats have had a serious problem lately with their branding. It's impossible for a Democratic senator to tell you what the Democrat's message is. Simply put, because they have none. Individuals within the party are having to stand on their own strength rather than the party's as a whole and the effects have been crippling to some of the weaker dems. CNN said back in January that 8 out of the 10 seats most likely to flip are actually blue seats. Take that with as much salt, a grain or a gram, as you see fit. The list seems inflated simply to make a list of 10 though, with questionable examples and placement. You can see that list here. Minnesota makes that list which as stated earlier is difficult to say one way or the other yet. Ohio also makes their list despite the major Republican challenger, state treasurer Josh Mandel, having dropped out of the race.

These are just the senate seats highlighted here. The House of Representatives is the same tale with a different context. Some political correspondents joked 2016 was the "Blue Wedding" in reference to the famous Game of Thrones slaughter scene, because that's just what it was. 2018 is shaping up to be an equally, if not messier, reaping this year but it's the Democrats turn. Between the 40 Republicans not running for re-election and the pressing threat of strong Democratic candidates, the house is expected to flip heavily into the blue, which will be explored in greater detail in part 2.

Through all this, remember that predictions and polls are just that. Predictions. Numerous seats are predicted to be within any given polls margin of error which means that those races will be very close, and as stated in this article will be hard fought to the bitter end.