Overview

There's nothing more frustrating for a beginner (or a veteran for that matter) than to flop the nuts, only to have someone call you to the river with a long shot and suck out. You confidently show your hand, having reeled him in the whole way. Or maybe he was betting into YOU ! You showed hesitation on the turn, suckered him into shoving, then called his all in knowing your trips with an ace were a winner, or your straight beat his trips. Then he triumphantly turns over his one or two outer, or the straight flush that beats your Ace high. WHAT!?!

This is called variance, and it's as important a part of poker as expected value, bluffing, or glancing at the board and knowing in a second how many outs you have. For example, I was recently playing a 2-5 No Limit Texas Hold 'Em cash game. I had AQ♠, there was a straddle and I was big blind. Everyone called the straddle, so by the time it came around to me there was already $85 in the pot. I raised to $60, and only had two callers. The flop came QQJ (the suits don't matter, there weren't two of a suit until the river). I checked the flop, and the player in next position bet $50. The remaining player folded, making me heads up with my Trips, Ace high. I know I'm losing to QJ or JJ, but QJ was improbable, and even against JJ I would have outs. The turn came K♣.

At this point, I needed to regain position and control of the hand, so I bet $100. I knew my opponent was a donkey, first class. He loved to chase, and he had made and lost several thousand on the way to a number of re-buys already. If he had A10, JJ, KK or QJ, he would have either snap-called or shoved. He counted his chips, seeing how much he would have left if he called my bet (don't EVER do this, it lets your opponent know you're weak!), then he let his curiosity get the better of him. He simply had to see that last card. I couldn't cold call his hand, he was too erratic. I was thinking he had either AA or 10/10. 10/10 was better, if his straight comes, it gives me quads. And I was willing to take the odds against the one or two outer. The river came 4♠. I bet another $100, he thought for awhile before shoving his last $200 in. Of course I called, then he hesitantly turned over 4♥4♦. I mucked, and he breathed a sigh of relief as the dealer shoved the stack to him.

Lesson

So what do we learn from this hand? That I somehow angered the poker gods? That this guy knows some advanced form of calculus that let him know his card was coming? NO!! What we learned is that variance is real...you haven't won the hand until the river, ever (Assuming you're not all in pre-flop and know what the other players hand is). That guy was a donkey. When he shoved on me, he didn't know if I had QQ, QJ, or KK. The only hands he could beat were A10, AA, or a bluff. Against any hand but A10, he should have immediately folded when he didn't hit the flop. Against the first three, he was drawing dead after the turn. No other player at the table would have called my pre-flop raise with 44, but part of mastering variance is knowing that sometimes that hand goes to the donkey that will chase you down at all costs. The following hand, he called an all in shove on the flop, pitting his gut shot draw against top two pairs. That cost him what he won from me. The hand after that, he was dealt KK. He tried to trap by checking it, and let 6 players limp in. Even After the flop came AA2, he refused to lay down his cowboys, and got wiped out. He went on to lose around $4000 of his own money.

Lesson #2

Variance may cause you to lose a hand that you simply shouldn't lose, and oftentimes it involves bad players chasing things they shouldn't. But in the long run, more often then not, the odds dictate your winning percentage. If you play bad cards and chase, you will lose. If you play for expected value and only chase when the pot is big enough to warrant the risk, you will win in the long run. I won't explain expected value or pot odds here, there are many excellent articles online that describe the strategy in depth. But the numbers don't lie. Remember, each hand is independent of every other hand. Odds of hitting a set with your pocket pair are 1/7, and it's a good rule to follow. When 8 other players all call a pre-flop min raise and you have 22, you should definitely call. If you don't hit the flop, you should fold to a hug bet, but there could be another min bet after the flop. With no flush or straight draw, you have a chance to take down a huge pot that no one sees coming if you get lucky. But you can call to the river with 10 or even 20 pairs in a row, and never hit a set. You can also flop sets with 8 consecutive pairs (this also happened to me recently, and was quite profitable).

Lesson #3

You don't have the nuts unless you have the nuts!

This statement sounds redundant, and yet is a very important point. Even when you get exactly what you want, you may still be hopelessly behind, with no way to get away from the hand. It happens to everyone, don't get discouraged! I've been playing for 20+ years. I can't tell you how many times I made a huge pre-flop raise with AK, only to have the flop come up AKQ (or AKJ or AK10, same principle). I've run into AA, KK, QQ, J10, and even A10/AJ in this situation. The latter two sound great, but they're just as dangerous as a set, maybe more so. Especially since I made a big bet pre-flop. That means an A10/AJ caller is probably suited. If he flops a flush draw, he now has enough outs to make him almost even money against 2 pairs.

I've also called a semi large pre-flop raise in position against tight players with a medium high pocket pair, knowing I was behind but willing to gamble. One big one was 10/10. Playing on a 5/10 No Limit Hold 'Em table, I raised to $50 on the button. A very tight player re-raised to $150. Expected value was actually against me, but I decided to gamble. The flop came 3/10J with no flush draw. Thinking I was way ahead, I wanted to both draw her in, and make sure there wasn't a Q on the turn (In case she had AK). I checked, she checked, turn came a 5, no flush draw. I bet $150, and she snap shoved. I was already putting her on AA or KK, so I snap called the all-in. She turned over JJ and took down the pot. Was I worried about JJ when I called a $2000 bet? Absolutely not. Of course I considered it, I knew it was a possibility. she was in position 6, so according to the Gordon Pair Principle there was about 8% chance she had a higher pair than me. The odds that we both hit a set are around 1%. The odds that we both flop the set are even lower, so somewhat lower than the 1/1,200 chance that I lose to a bigger set at all. But I made the call based on the 1/1,200 odds, as she was unlikely to fold an over pair. There was no way for me to get away from the hand. If I had folded, it would have been a horrible decision on my part, despite the outcome. It happens!!!

Lesson 4

Have a short memory when you lose to a bad beat!

There are many things you should focus on in poker, the hand you just lost isn't one of them! If someone made donkey call and got lucky, use it to your advantage! Remember what hand he beat you with, it probably fits a pattern of overvaluing bad hands. If I am the 7th person to call a mid raise pre-flop with 5♦6♦, it's because I know that most of the other players probably have broadway hands (AK, QJ, A10, etc.). They are probably blocking each other and one or more of them may have the same hand.

There are a number of scenarios where my hand can take down a massive pot (suited 56 is the best hand against AA, assuming one of the aces isn't your suit). When I make large pre-flop bet, and one person calls me, and he has a 56 off-suit, I remember it. Not because I won or lost, but because that guy (or gal) likes to throw darts at the wall blindfolded and hope to hit something. The next time I face them, I can use my knowledge of their hand range to avoid some of the variance. That doesn't mean fold if the flop comes up 56J, or 478. It means keep in mind they may be playing hands in that range for large amounts. Do not get gun shy and start checking a low board when you have AA or KK against guys like that (short memory, remember?) Shoot out a value bet, see their reaction. Most players that call with hands like that will get over excited and re-raise, or at least squirm in their seat trying to contain their excitement while they call. The downside? You risk letting them catch up if they have a draw or one pair. If you're worried about it, sometimes the best move is to shove. You may lose again to the donkey, but you won't second guess yourself on the turn or river.

Lesson #5

Don't be a donkey and throw darts at the wall!!!

I've often seen several newbies at the same table start to laugh and joke, lose focus and and start playing bad poker. Patience can be a difficult thing to develop, but calling every hand to see if you get lucky will result in bad things. It might work once, then it becomes a habit that will cost you later. "Every hand is a winner until the flop comes up",
and "*The only way to win is to play the hand" are some of the least intelligent quotes I've heard more than once. Usually from older guys that play craps more than poker. And the saddest thing I see is the young guys (and gals) who're just starting out and heed such "advice" because they think age begets wisdom.

Lesson #6

Learn the odds to reduce variance

One of the best ways to reduce variance is to have a general idea of what your odds are to win or lose each hand, based on how many other players are in the hand and the cards showing. One site that has an excellent poker calculator is
Wizard of Odds
You can play around with different hands, different flops and rivers, see the exact odds you have to win, lose or tie. I have mentioned expected value and pot odds several times, and feel free to investigate the related charts for those. But when you're playing from behind to win a bigger pot, you are the one counting on variance to play in your favor. SO for the purposes of this article, such things are better left for later.

Lesson #7

Manage your bankroll

Now we've discussed some of the scary scenarios in which you can lose all your money and drive home to curl in a ball and cry yourself to sleep. So how do you make sure it doesn't happen to you? There's no surefire way to make sure you never lose in poker. Not without risking a broken kneecap in the alley behind the casino. But with careful bankroll management, you can make sure you usually go home with more money than you left with. As a rule of thumb, bring at least 20 times your buy in amount. If you're playing at a table with a $200 min-$1000 max buy-in, and you bring $400 to play, it's a recipe for disaster. If that's all you can afford to bring, then you really can't afford to play. Unless you are prepared to lose that money with no regrets, don't even sit at the table.

If you're buying in for $200, bring $4000. And keep in mind, if you buy in for the minimum, you put yourself at risk for variance simply by doing so. Chances are several people at a table with these limits will have substantially more than the $1000 max buy-in. Even if you shove all in on the flop, they are likely to call with an open-ended straight or flush draw. And if someone bets $50 pre-flop and you shove with JJ, someone with AQ or even A10 is unlikely to fold, especially if they are suited. That doesn't mean you can't win, it just means you have to be careful, and don't plan on "scaring" anyone. And if you lose $200, don't buy in right away for $400. I know, I know, if you buy in for $400 You're a double up away from being up $200. You're also a hand away from being down $600!!! This is where patience comes in. Tighten up, play premium hands. Wait on your ship to come in, and let the big stacks play aggressive (for now).

There may be a hand where you call down to the river to an aggressive bettor, only to have him ask if you have a pair, then muck his hand when you say you do. Do not show your hand, and if he asks, tel, him you had whatever the nuts were. Straight, Flush, Full House (Boat) or whatever, tell him you had it and sell it. Or just tell him he was was dead before the river. The later when you actually have the nuts, say I'll show one time and turn the hand over when everyone folds. I rarely use this tactic, as experienced players know I am as well, and may suspect reverse psychology. But if you're a beginner, doing so can lead to a great bluff opportunity later. If you have doubled up once or twice, and make an aggressive bet when 3 to a flush or the back end of an open ended straight draw hits the board, that same guy is likely to fold. Keep in mind HE may have the flush, so don't go crazy. On the rare occasion I'm playing at a table with no familiar players, I do use this tactic. I've gone for hours drawing dead and come out ahead by strategically bluffing.

Lesson #8

Sometimes you just can't win

I have had days where I just lose hand after hand for hours on end, I've lost 5 pre-flop all-ins heads up with AA in a three hour period. I was more astonished that I got Aces so many times, than that I lost with all of them. I've also been down 7 or 8 buy ins, and come all the way back to be up several grand. If you're way behind and come back to break even, sometimes your best move is being happy to leave that way. Most casinos have a time limit when you cash out, before you can play at another table. Leave for an hour or two (for God's sake don't get bored and start playing slots!), then come back and buy in for your original amount. Or go to a lower limit table if there's one available. If you go to a lower limit, you will usually have to remove any amount above the max buy-in for that table. But don't get desperate to leave with a "W". Remember, all that grinding you did to break even can be wasted in one hand.

When you're on a roll, it feels like you got the monkey off your back. You didn't, variance is always a hand away!!!