I like your option 4!
But I like to think the "random event" or "personal choice" is only perceived that way by us as to give us the illusion we are in full control of our destiny.

So it is almost like a simulation in a way because all potentials have been factored in - for example, I decided to eat toast for breakfast over all of the other potential breakfast food on offer. That decision led me to an upset gut leading me sit on the park bench whilst walking the dog, which then saw someone a couple of minutes later sitting next to me and we ended up having a lovely mutually beneficial chat.

So, that chat and conversation and the benefits may not have occured if I had decided to just skip or have juice for breakfast.

Or would it?

I think everything we do and everything that happens has been predetermined. Everything unfolds as it is meant to. Our choices may make the path challenging or easy but all different outcomes have all ready been factored in.

Thats just my belief anyway - thanks for thought provoking post!