What are the scenarios of a Franco-American military intervention in Syria?
France is still determined to respond militarily to the chemical attack in the city of Douma in Syria over the weekend, attributed to the regime of Bashar Assad. French President Emmanuel Macaron said the Elysée is expected to announce in the next few days its "decision" to respond to these chemical attacks in coordination with its American and British allies. Trump was very clear in his Twitter comment on Wednesday, as Russia warned about the imminent bombing of Syria with rockets.
In this context, the general commander of the US military said that "as Russia commits to destroy missiles directed Syria, which will be prepared because the missiles to be adopted on this occasion will be a great new and intelligent. forced to be a partner for an animal kills his people, taking advantage of his support He ".
The situation has changed since 2013
Although the political will is clear in this matter, this process can not be rushed. "The president has been slow to carry out the operation because there are many logistical details that must be handled first," said Jean-Marc Tanguy, an air attack journalist. The "details" of this operation are related to the reality of the field that has changed since 2013 and is related to the possibility of the French army attacking an air attack in Syria, especially any penetration of Syrian airspace by US aircraft and French seem more dangerous today, given the strength of the Russian military presence.
The earliest possible scenario for this operation would be similar to that launched by US forces a year ago.
"The Russian air defense is an obstacle," said Jean-Marc Tangui, weapons specialist. "They have air-to-ground defense systems called S-300 and S-400," Air defense systems S-300 and S-400 could hit an aircraft 400 kilometers away and intercept a missile at a distance of about five to 60 kilometers. Strategy to defend the Syrian regime ".
An Israeli F-16 fighter was shot down during the month of February. This is a precedent in the history of Israel's plane since 1982. The success of the strike was attributed to the air defense system. The French air force has not had such a level in the air-ground defense systems since 1999, specifically since the intervention in Kosovo.
Path of the heavens
To ask, how can a Franco-American military operation look exactly like this? The earliest possible scenario for this operation would be similar to that launched by US forces a year ago. On the seventh of the month of April / April 2017, US forces launched a revenge attack in response to the chemical weapons attack targeting civilians in the April / April quarter in the south of Idlib, where in motion 59 Tomahawks on the night of the destroyer of the class "Arly Burke" in The eastern part of the Mediterranean went to the capillary air base. In fact, the Chief of Staff of the French armies does not rule out the hypothesis of an automatic military intervention.
According to the director of the Center for Security Studies of France, Corantan Prostelin, both "the scope and accuracy of these missiles make them an interesting weapon from the point of view of those who make the decisions".
In fact, France can reinforce this attack with Tomahawk missiles through an air strike against a Rafal aircraft deployed at bases inside Jordan or Abu Dhabi. This means that France can withdraw from the adoption of the Storm Shadow missiles. "This type of missile has a range of 400 kilometers and can evade the anti-aircraft system if it is fired from a very short distance, so two missiles must be fired because a projectile has an insufficient payload," said an armaments specialist.
"There is no problem with the effectiveness of these missiles, they are very precise thanks to the availability of a steering system, in addition to the GPS, an inertial steering system connected to the destination point, as well as a unit of measurement in the front of the rocket, "said Jean-Marc Tangi. To know the objective. "The rocket is equipped with a" destructive "charge against the so-called more powerful targets, bunkers or hangars.
According to the director of the Center for French Security Studies, Corentan Prostelin, "the extension and precision of these missiles make them interesting weapons from the point of view of decision makers, because they reduce the risks to which pilots and ships can be exposed and can damage the target. Hit it. "
Or by sea ...
For France, there is another option to launch an attack: a maritime mobile missile, a rocket fired from frigid French frigates such as Lachite, which is currently sailing in the eastern Mediterranean, and which could be involved in the intervention.
Both the French and the Americans hide a key strategic aspect behind this attack, which is to solve the Syrian air defense to improve the effectiveness of the bombing.
"This is a very different weapon, with a payload of 250 kg, with a range of approximately 1,000 km," said Jean-Marc Tangi, who also has a variety of cargo, similar to Storm Shadow. The expert said that France does not venture to send a load of 250 missiles on a frigate, since the storage capacity of France is limited. It is worth mentioning that the new mobile missile will see its first official use of the fight if the military attacks in Syria.
Both the French and the Americans hide a key strategic aspect behind this attack, which is to solve the Syrian air defense to improve the effectiveness of the bombing. According to the blog of the expert on the site "Le Fotay de Coulber" French, among Tangi that "the Navy and the Air Force will launch about fifty mobile rockets, and this would be a strong political message for Bashar al-Assad and his army ... "
Unknown Russian
As for the position of the Russians on this potential operation, they appear to be "aggressive". If we are waiting for a plane in circles on the Russian combat frigate "Aquitaine" later this week, which coincided with the Kremlin warning of any action that could "destabilize" in Syria, will be an important element in the success of the process.
More clarify, director of the French Center for Security Studies, Corentin Brostelin reported that the "intent of Russian missile interceptors to protect Syria's allied possibility, but the risk of attacking military warships that will cause inflict casualties among the Western forces, which in turn would be a threat to Moscow. "
"Moscow has the necessary documents to reduce the risk of escalation, for example, it can move its units away from the potential targets of the West to avoid the risk of collateral damage, or, on the contrary, Russia intends to scale even further. attempt to cause Western forces to suffer losses, an option that would be risky. "
Source: Le Parisien