Analysis of the US President Election

As one of the largest geopolitical events affecting the international situation in 2024, the final result of the 2024 US presidential election will be officially announced in three weeks. As the election voting day approaches, the campaign activities of Harris and Trump are coming to an end, and the outcome is beginning to take shape. Based on historical circumstances and the current election situation, an analysis and judgment of the current US election situation is made, and a prediction of the final election result is provided as follows:

1. Differences between current polls and the actual situation

2. Bias of polling agencies

• Since Harris replaced Biden to continue running for office, the support rate of Harris given by mainstream US polling agencies has been increasing, with the overall poll leading Trump by up to 7 to 8 percentage points at most, and the support rate in the 7 key swing states has also been catching up. However, pro-Democratic media, including CNN, ABC, and The New York Times, are the main institutions that often organize and release poll results, and their poll results tend to be in favor of Harris.

1. Polling inaccuracies of the Democratic Party

• Looking at historical election voting situations, the polling inaccuracies of the Democratic Party have always existed. In 2016, Hillary led Trump by about 5 percentage points in the pre-election polls in the 3 swing states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, but was overturned by Trump in the final voting. In 2020, Biden also led Trump by 5 percentage points in the polls of the above 3 swing states, but won by only about 1.5 percentage points in the final voting.

1. Hidden supporters of Trump

• Trump's "America First" election concept is often rather radical, and a large number of Trump supporters often conceal their positions before voting to avoid criticism; at the same time, some voters are reluctant to participate in polls under Trump's claim that polls are manipulated. For example, in , Trump's poll support rate in the 3 swing states of North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona was about 1.5 percentage points lower than the final voting result.

1. Current overall poll support rates and the domestic election situation in the US

2. Latest support rates and trends

• On October 13 local time, "RealClearPolitics" provided the latest support rates of Harris and Trump, with Harris leading Trump by 1.7 percentage points at 48.9% to 47.2%, and the overall support rate further narrowing. In addition, the poll support rate of Harris may face a further decline before the election.

1. Debates and performance of running mates

• In the vice-presidential candidate public TV debate on October 1 local time, Trump's running mate Vance performed excellently and to some extent outperformed Harris's running mate Walz. This directly led to Trump's overall poll rapidly changing from being 6 to 7 percentage points behind to being less than 2 percentage points behind after the last public TV debate before the election, and the Vance effect continued to play a role.

1. Disaster relief performance and its impact

• The Biden - Harris administration performed poorly in the disaster relief of "Helene" and "Milton" hurricanes, which may continue to have a great adverse impact on Harris's campaign. "Helene" caused at least 236 deaths in the US and became the most destructive hurricane since 2005. The Biden government had major problems in disaster relief funds, rescue operations, and communication and coordination, and was severely criticized by the Republican Party, resulting in a continuous decline in Harris's poll support rate.

1. Changes in public opinion in swing states

• The public opinion base of the Democratic Party's 3 traditional advantageous swing states has been shaken, while the Republican Party's traditional advantageous areas are relatively stable. The 3 traditional advantageous swing states of the Democratic Party are Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. They won 7, 7, and 8 times respectively in the last 10 US presidential elections. However, due to the loss of manufacturing in recent years, the 3 states are dissatisfied with the policies of the Democratic Party and have turned to support Trump's policies. In the 2022 US mid-term elections, the Republican Party achieved unprecedented victories in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, leading by 5 and 15 percentage points respectively. The Republican Party's traditional advantageous areas of North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona have always been stable, and even in 2020 when Trump dealt with COVID-19 poorly, they still won.

1. The most important influencing factors to be noticed in the last 3 weeks

2. Polls in Nevada

• Nevada, as a famous neutral state in the US presidential election, is known as the "weather vane of the US presidential election". In the last 10 US presidential elections, the election results in Nevada have been consistent with the final election results 9 times. Therefore, the changes in the polls in Nevada will most likely determine the final result of the election.

1. External factors

• For example, Trump was shot on July 13, which greatly boosted Trump's election situation in the short term. In addition, in the last 3 weeks, it is not excluded that the Democratic Party will vigorously collect direct evidence of Trump's crimes, such as in the "hush money" case, to affect Trump's election situation.

1. Health issues

• Currently, Harris is vigorously hyping up Trump's health issues. It is necessary to pay attention to whether Trump will release his own physical examination report to clarify the rumors to the public.

Based on the analysis of the current election situation, the probability of Trump being elected is more than 70%. The Democratic Party may strengthen the influence of external factors on Trump under the condition of the continuously narrowing overall support rate. The changes in the election situation need to be continuously monitored.